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论文编号：	9822
作者编号：	2120152877
上传时间：	2017/12/12 17:47:16
中文题目：	天津港集装箱码头环境分析及发展策略研究
英文题目：	Environmental Analysis and Development Strategies of Tianjin Port Container Terminal
指导老师：	张玉利
中文关键字：	一带一路、港口集装箱吞吐量、环境分析、灰色预测、港口规划、发展策略。
英文关键字：	“the Belt and Road”, port container throughput, gray forecast, port planning, environmental analysis, development strategy.
中文摘要：	随着我国顶层设计“一带一路”战略的提出与推进，我国的对外贸易往来及国际交往、跨国交流合作必将会进一步增长，这对国家各方面的长远发展都是及其有利的。而该战略尤其是21世纪海上丝绸之路的推行，需要以我国沿海主要港口尤其是集装箱码头为纽带和支点，“一带一路”战略明确提出了要重点建设15个重要港口的名单，天津港名列其中，这些港口的建设与发展，关乎着“一带一路”战略的实施成果，是战略蓝图的基础，因此在它们之中选一个代表码头来分析有关其发展的各方面问题是十分必要的。主要港口和“一带一路”战略的相互关系是怎样的，天津港集装箱码头的发展环境和现状究竟如何，基于该战略提供的机遇，主要港口的集装箱吞吐量增长趋势以及根据趋势该制定怎样的规划，码头的竞争优势与劣势、机会与威胁分别是什么，根据这些信息该如何选择码头未来的发展策略及相关保障措施等，这一系列问题是本文要研究的重点，回答好这些问题，也就回答了21世纪海上丝绸之路战略的推行和天津港及我国其他主要港口集装箱码头的发展问题。本文以以上几个研究问题为核心，以天津港及其集装箱码头为主要代表港口，分成几章分别进行了分析。第一章主要阐述了文章的研究背景、意义及目的，即“一带一路”战略的产生与目标，以及我国主要港口对战略的意义、战略对港口发展的促进作用等相互关系的介绍。第二章进行了理论回顾与文献综述，对本文所使用的研究方法进行了简要介绍，并对前人的相关研究进行了阐述。第三章主要介绍了我国沿海港口的发展历程及经营现状，集装箱运输方式的优势以及我国主要集装箱港口的现状及区域分布情况等，总结了“一带一路”战略对主要港口的影响作用及这些港口依托战略的未来发展方向等问题，并介绍了本文重点分析的港口天津港集装箱码头的现状。本文第四章使用天津港作为“一带一路”战略重点建设港口的实例，对其经营环境进行了分析，并归纳了影响其发展的主要因素，同时使用SWOT法对其进行了分析。第五章先利用了灰色预测模型对天津港集装箱吞吐量年度数据进行了预测，同时预测了上海港、深圳港集装箱吞吐量年度数据作为比对，得到了三港未来四年的预测结果并通过了检验，并基于增长趋势的研判，对天津港集装箱码头未来的规划进行了阐述与补充，随后在此基础上针对天津港集装箱码头的发展策略进行了分析并提出了相关保障措施。第六章对全文做了总结。 关键词：一带一路、港口集装箱吞吐量、环境分析、灰色预测、港口规划、发展策略。
英文摘要：	Accompany with Implementation and promotion of China's top-level design ——“the Belt and Road” strategy, it can be concluded that China's foreign trade and international exchanges, cross-border exchanges and cooperation will be further growth, which is beneficial to the long-term development of all aspects of our country. Whether the strategy can be implemented and promoted depends on the development of major ports in China. “the Belt and Road” strategy clearly put forward to focus on the construction of 15 important port list, Port of Tianjin is also among them. The construction and development of these ports is related to the implementation of the "the Belt and Road" strategy, which is the basis of the strategic blueprint, so it is necessary to select a representative terminal to analyze the various aspects of its development. What is the relationship between the main port and the "one way" strategy? What is the development environment and the status quo of the container terminal? Based on the opportunities offered by the strategy, the container throughput growth trends for major ports and what are the plans based on the development of the trend, what are the competitive advantages and disadvantages ,the opportunities and threats of the terminal, and how to choose the future development strategy for the terminal. This series of questions is the focus of this paper, to answer these questions, also answered the implementation of the Silk Road strategy and the development of major ports in China. In this paper, the above several research issues as the core, with Tianjin Port and its container terminal as the main representative of ports, divided into several chapters to analyzed. The first chapter mainly elaborates the background, significance and purposes of the article, include the generation and goal of the "the Belt and Road" strategy, the significance of the major ports for this strategy and an introduction to the relationship between main ports and strategy. The second chapter reviews the theory and literature review, briefly introduces the research methods used in this article, and expatiates on previous studies. The third chapter mainly elaborates the development course and the current situation of the coastal ports in China, the advantages of the container transportation mode and the current situation and the regional distribution of the major container ports in China, and summarizes the influence of the strategy on the major ports and the future development direction of these ports , etc., and introduced status quo of the focus of this article analysis ——Tianjin Port container terminal .In the fourth chapter, this paper analyzes the business environment of Port of Tianjin which was using as an example of main ports of "the Belt and Road" strategic , and summarizes the main factors influencing its development, the four dimensions of Tianjin Port are also analyzed by SWOT analysis model. In the fifth chapter, we use the gray forecasting model to forecast the annual data of container throughput in Tianjin Port, and forecast the annual data of container throughput in Shanghai and Shenzhen ports as the comparison, and obtain the forecast results of the next four years and passed the test. Finally, based on the growth trend of the study, the future planning of Tianjin Port Container Terminal has been described and supplemented. Then, the development strategy of Tianjin Port Container Terminal is discussed and we obtained the development strategy guarantee measures. Chapter 6 summarizes the full text. Key words: “the Belt and Road”, port container throughput, gray forecast, port planning, environmental analysis, development strategy.
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