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论文编号：	9766
作者编号：	2120152936
上传时间：	2017/12/10 18:17:20
中文题目：	中小银行基于风险防控导向的预算管理研究——以A银行为例
英文题目：	Risk-prevention-and-control-oriented Budget Management for Small and Medium Banks: A Case Study on Bank A
指导老师：	刘志远
中文关键字：	中小银行；预算管理；风险防控；导向
英文关键字：	small and medium - sized banks；budget management；risk prevention and control；orientation
中文摘要：	预算管理是对企业组织管理的基本手段，吸引了相当数量的学者和企业菁英投身到这一领域的研究与实践上。银行作为基本的金融机构类型之一，是国民经济的重要支柱，是央行货币政策及中央、地方政府经济政策的执行者和推动者，因而受到了更多的政府关注与监管，从而在预算制定和执行过程中，面临更多的经营及监管指标约束。 因此，银行业到底应该以哪一具体问题为预算导向，确实显得比较重要，但又头绪众多。目前的理论和实践集中在利润导向、营业收入导向、成本控制导向、现金流量导向和综合平衡导向五种模式。但这些都并不适合银行这一特定类型的企业和金融机构。从本质上说，银行是经营风险的金融机构，是经营信誉和信心的金融机构，这也是金融借贷关系无法完全“脱媒”的根本原因。 有鉴于近年银行业的信用风险和流动性风险突出的现实情况，本文以信用风险和流动性风险防控为抓手，以预计的不良贷款余额及监管要求的不良贷款率上限倒算预计的各项贷款余额，再根据预计的年初存款流失率推算出年末的合理存贷比及各项存款余额，在此基础上结合传统的银行预算技术进行整体预算；从而改良了单纯以主观判断确定的存贷款预测数据为预算起点的银行传统预算方法。 本文的这一思路尤为适合缺乏大数据和完善信息系统支撑的中小银行，即，在众多监管、风险及经营指标中，优先考虑风险防控，从而使得银行这种以经营及管理风险为核心的特殊类型企业，有了一个明确的战略方向。 该论文属于案例研究，为银行投资者和从业者们，展示了对于银行经营核心问题（风险防控）的把握，并使得一般商业银行在传统上被分而治之的预算管理和风险防控重新统一起来，为极为复杂的银行业经营、财务及风险管理，找到了有力的抓手。
英文摘要：	Budget management is the basic means of management for enterprises and other organizations, and thus attracts a considerable number of scholars and business elites to join the research and practice in this field. As one of the basic types of financial institutions, banks are an important pillar of the national economy, the central bank monetary policy and the central and local government economic policy implementers and promoters. And thus they got more government attention and supervision, therefor more business and regulatory targets are imposed on in the budget planning and the implementing process. Therefore, how to choose the specific target from a number of issues for the budget-orientation of banking industry really appears to be a more important question. The current theory and practice focuses on profit, business income, cost, cash flow or so-called balance targets. But these are not suitable for banks. In essence, risk management, credibility and confidence are the core value of the banking industry. And that is the principal reason why the financial lending relationships can not leave the media, i.e. the banks completely. In view of the fact that the credit risk and liquidity risk of the banking industry are prominent in recent years, this dissertation starts with the prevention and control of credit risk and liquidity risk, predicts the expected non-performing loan balances and the non-performing loan rate, and then calculates the reasonable loan-deposit ratio at the end of the coming year and the balance of various deposits according to the predicted deposit loss rate at the beginning of the year. Based on this, the overall budget will be combined with the traditional bank budget technology, thus improves the bank's traditional budget method in which the deposit and loan are determined solely by subjective judgment. In this paper, the author has provided a new way of thinking in the complicated budget management of commercial banks, which is especially suitable for small and medium-sized banks that lack large data and sound the information system. Among numerous supervision, risk and business indicators, this paper gives priority to risk prevention and control, so that the banks are able to embrace a clear strategic direction. The paper is a case study, for bank investors and practitioners, to show the top issue of the banking business, i.e. the risk prevention and control. And it reunites the budget management and risk prevention & control for traditional commercial banks.
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