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论文编号：	9765
作者编号：	2120152621
上传时间：	2017/12/10 18:07:30
中文题目：	实物期权估值模型在商业地产投资开发中的应用——以DL购物中心项目为例
英文题目：	The Application of Real Option Valuation Model in Commercial Real Estate Investment Development - Take the DL Shopping Center Project As An Example
指导老师：	陈国欣
中文关键字：	商业地产 ；投资估值 ；实物期权
英文关键字：	commercial real estate； investment valuation；real option
中文摘要：	当前住宅市场投资吸引力降低，商业地产伴随着中国城市化进程，中国制造升级、一带一路、人口结构改变、消费升级等发展机会，即将跨入成熟期，越来越多的资金开始向商业地产布局。基于这样的一个背景，本文分析了商业地产发展现状和未来发展趋势分析，在商业地产发展越来越热的经济环境下，商业地产的投资决策越发重要，然而商业地产的不可逆性、投资周期长、规模大、不确定性比较高等特点，增加了商业地产投资开发的风险性，因而在投资开发前期对拟投资项目的估值就成了项目成败的关键因素。估值结果科学合理，则有利于开发商做出正确的投资决策，取得正常的投资收益；估值结果错误，则会影响到投资决策，可能会错失资本收益或承受资本损失的风险。所以对商业地产投资开发前的估值非常重要。 因此本文选择了商业地产的投资估值这个选题，并结合工作实际来进行研究。在传统的商业地产投资决策过程中，主要是在预测未来现金流的基础上，通过选取恰当的折现率进行未来现金流的折现，进而估算出此项目的价值，然后据此得出决策判断。然而，这种传统的估值方法有其一定的局限性，在不断发展和创新的商业环境中，已经难以全面合理的对商业地产的价值进行科学有效的评估，这样得出的估值结果往往会导致错误的投资决定，可能会错失良好的投资项目的机会。因此在传统折现估值的基础上，引入了实物期权估值分析法，这种方法弥补了传统估值模型对不确定性的风险厌恶，并考虑了商业地产投资特有的诸如不可逆性、周期长、投资规模大等性质，因此实物期权估法对商业地产的估值更加科学合理，也更能为企业的投资带来正确的决策。 综上，本文通过案例来论证了实物期权在实际中的可操作性，有效性，并通过与传统估值方法对同一案例的估值结果进行对比分析，来验证了实物期权估值方法较传统估值方法的科学合理性。希望此应用能在实际投资过程中得到推广，以不断提高决策水平，这就是本文的最终目的。
英文摘要：	The current housing market investment less attractive, commercial real estate with the China's urbanization process, China's manufacturing upgrading, area, population structure change, consumption upgrade all the way such as development opportunities, will soon entered the mature stage, more and more money to the commercial real estate layout. Based on such a background, this paper analyzes the commercial real estate development present situation and future development trend analysis, is becoming more and more hot in commercial real estate development of economic environment, commercial real estate investment decision-making more important, however the irreversibility of commercial real estate, investment cycle is long, large scale, uncertainty is high, increasing the risk of the commercial real estate investment and development, and investment in the early stage of investment in the development of the projects to the valuation has become the key factor for project success or failure. The scientific and reasonable valuation results can help developers make correct investment decisions and achieve normal investment returns. The wrong valuation results in investment decisions that may miss capital gains or risk capital losses. Therefore, the valuation of commercial real estate investment is very important. Therefore, this paper selects the investment valuation of commercial real estate and studies it based on the actual work. In the traditional commercial real estate investment decision-making process, mainly through cash flow forecast in the future, on the basis of through selection of appropriate discount rate to discount future cash flow, and then estimate the value of the project, and then made this judgment. However, the traditional valuation methods have their limitations, in the continuous development and innovation of the commercial environment, has been difficult to comprehensive and reasonable to evaluate the value of commercial real estate to carry on the scientific and effective, so it is concluded that the valuation result often lead to the wrong investment decisions, might be losing good investment opportunities. Therefore, based on the traditional discount valuation, the real option valuation analysis method is introduced, which makes up makes up for the traditional valuation model for the uncertainty of risk aversion, and considering the characteristic of commercial real estate investment irreversibility, cycle is long, investment scale, such as nature, so the real option valuation method more scientific and reasonable valuation of commercial real estate, also more can bring the right for enterprise's investment decisions. In conclusion, this article through the case to demonstrate the real option in the actual operability, effectiveness, and on the same case with the traditional methods of valuation results contrast analysis, to verify the real option valuation method more science and rationality of the traditional valuation method. It is hoped that this application can be promoted in the actual investment process to improve the decision-making level, which is the ultimate purpose of this paper.
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