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论文编号：	9660
作者编号：	2120152948
上传时间：	2017/12/8 12:44:05
中文题目：	山东海化基于功效系数法的财务危机预警研究
英文题目：	Research on Financial Crisis Pre-warning of Shandong Haihua Company Based on Efficiency Coefficient Method
指导老师：	王志红
中文关键字：	财务危机；财务危机预警；功效系数法
英文关键字：	Financial Crisis; Financial Crisis Pre-warning; Efficiency Coefficient Method
中文摘要：	随着全球经济一体化的快速发展和市场经济体制改革的逐步深化，企业自成立之初就面临多种威胁其生存的风险，尤其是财务风险。在激烈的市场竞争环境中，企业若想取得生存与持续发展，那么提前预知财务风险，尤其是可能导致财务危机的财务风险，及时采取有针对性的防范措施，避免陷入财务危机，是非常有必要的。在企业的管理实践中，与财务危机预警类似的工作（预算管理、财务分析等）可能多少都有所涉及，但一般是分散在企业的各个职能部门，没有明确的权责划分，且没有将其作为一项系统性、常规性的工作专门进行。而如何做到这一点正是财务危机预警研究的目的和意义所在。 本文以山东海化为例，站在其内部管理的角度进行财务危机预警研究，试图通过构建适合其实际情况的财务危机预警系统并进行预警分析，监控和预测财务风险，探究财务风险的根源，并提出具体的财务风险防范措施和财务危机预警应用措施，以此加强其对财务风险的管理和控制，实现健康持续发展。 本文具体的研究思路如下：首先，对国内外有关财务危机预警的研究进行了回顾总结，并对目前相关的研究进行了评析；其次，界定了财务危机及预警相关的概念，介绍了预警的方法和功能，在此基础上引出功效系数法的定义、原理、步骤及其用于财务危机预警的相关研究、优点和需改进之处，为后文对财务危机预警系统的构建提供了理论依据；再次，对山东海化的背景进行了简要介绍，分析了其面临的财务环境和所处的财务现状，说明了其建立财务危机预警系统的必要性；然后，对山东海化运用功效系数法构建财务危机预警模型的适用性进行了分析，在此基础上运用经改进的功效系数法构建了财务危机预警模型，并对该模型的有效性进行了验证；最后，运用构建的财务危机预警模型对山东海化最近三年的财务状况进行了预警分析，提出了有针对性的财务风险防范措施，并分别从岗位、机构、制度三个方面说明山东海化如何具体应用财务危机预警系统。
英文摘要：	With the rapid development of global economic integration and the gradual deepening of the reform of market economy system, enterprises faced with a variety of risks threat to its survival since the beginning of the establishment, especially financial risks. In the fierce market competition environment, if enterprises want to survive and develop sustainably, it is necessary to predict financial risks in advance, especially the financial risks may lead to financial crisis, take targeted preventive measures timely to avoid falling into a financial crisis. In the practice of enterprise management, the work similar to the financial crisis pre-warning (budget management, financial analysis, etc.) may have been involved, but they may generally scatter in the various functional departments of the enterprise, there is no clear division of rights and responsibilities and not carry it out as a systematic, routine work. And how to do this is the purpose and significance of financial crisis pre-warning research. Taking Shandong Haihua as an example, this thesis tries to build out the financial crisis pre-warning system which is suitable for its actual situation and carry out pre-warning analysis, monitor and forecast the financial risk, explore the root of financial risk, and put forward specific financial risk prevention measures and financial crisis pre-warning application measures, in order to strengthen its financial risk management and control, to achieve healthy and sustainable development. The main research ideas of this paper are as follows: Firstly, the research on the financial crisis pre-warning at home and abroad is reviewed and summarized, and the current research has been evaluated. Secondly, concepts of financial crisis pre-warning have been defined and the methods and functions of financial crisis pre-warning have been introduced. On this basis, the definition, principles and steps of the efficiency coefficient method and the related research, advantages and the points need to be improved are presented, which provides a theoretical basis for the construction of financial crisis pre-warning system. Thirdly, the background of Shandong Haihua is briefly introduced, and the financial environment and financial situation are analyzed. The necessity of establishing financial crisis pre-warning system is explained. Then, the applicability of the financial crisis pre-warning model using the efficiency coefficient method of Shandong Haihua is analyzed. Based on the improved efficiency coefficient method, the financial crisis pre-warning model is constructed and the validity of the model is verified. Finally, the financial crisis pre-warning model is used to analyze the financial situation of Shandong Haihua in the last three years, and the countermeasures of financial risk prevention are put forward, and how to apply the financial crisis pre-warning system for Shandong Haihua is explained from three aspects: post, organization, institution.
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