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论文编号：	9527
作者编号：	2120152932
上传时间：	2017/12/7 6:45:45
中文题目：	Z银行信贷决策过程中财务分析方法的改进研究
英文题目：	Research on the Improvement of Financial Analysis Method in Credit Decision of Z bank
指导老师：	边泓
中文关键字：	银行信贷决策;信用风险;财务报表分析;资金缺口
英文关键字：	bank credit decisions; credit risk; financial statements analysis; financing gap
中文摘要：	信贷业务是商业银行经营的重要业务，贷款收益是银行利润总额的主要来源，信贷资产安全是银行业务有序开展的必要前提，信贷决策的正确与否与信贷资产安全息息相关，银行信贷人员对借款人借款需求、偿债能力的准确判断是做出正确合理的信贷决策的基础。 近年来，对申请授信企业的财务报表进行分析是考量企业贷款资质的重要手段，也是银行做出信贷决策的重要依据。传统的财务报表分析方法伴随着我国市场经济的深入发展暴露出越来越多的局限性，这就要求信贷工作人员对现有的分析方法进行改进，以做出更加合理的信贷决策，保障信贷资产安全。 目前Z银行信贷决策中财务报表分析存在诸多问题：一是财务报表分析趋于模式化、简单化，仅用传统的财务指标对借款人盈利能力、偿债能力进行趋势预测，未能直观的揭示借款人偿债能力；二是采用银监局下发的《流贷管理办法》中提出的流动资金贷款缺口计算公式对借款企业授信金额进行确定存在不合理之处，该公式大多适合生产平稳、不受季节性因素影响的生产型企业，而对其他行业企业测算缺乏准确性。针对上述几点问题，本文提出利用主成分分析法和Logistics回归分析法，建立了一个评价企业信用风险的模型，将企业信用风险更加直观的展示出来；对资金缺口测算提出结合外部市场环境、企业交易合同及现金周转的实际情况等措施进行优化，改进企业财务报表分析方法，帮助Z银行做出合理正确的信贷决策，降低授信风险。
英文摘要：	The credit business is the important business of the commercial banks. The loan income is the main source of the total profit of the bank. The credit asset security is the necessary prerequisite for the bank business to be carried out in an orderly manner. The correctness of the credit decision is closely related to the credit asset security. The exact judgement of borrowing demand and solvency is the basis for making the right and reasonable credit decision. In recent years, the analysis of the financial statements of enterprises applying for credit is an important means to consider the qualification of corporate loans, but also an important basis for banks to make credit decisions. The traditional financial analysis method is accompanied by the increasing development of China's market economy, which requires the credit staff to improve the existing analysis methods, so as to make more reasonable credit decision, protect the credit asset security. At present, there are many problems in the analysis of financial statements in the credit decision of Z bank: First, the analysis of financial statements tends to be modeled and simplified, and only the traditional financial indicators are used to forecast the profitability and solvency of borrowers, not intuitive to reveal the borrowers’ debt capacity; the second is the use of the working capital loans gap calculation formula proposed by the “management of working capital loans” issued by the Banking Regulatory Bureau to determine the amount of credit is unreasonable, the formula is mostly suitable for the production-oriented enterprises which product smoothly, not subject to seasonal factors, and lacking of accuracy for measuring other industries and enterprises. In order to solve the above problems, this paper proposes a model to evaluate the credit risk of enterprises by using principal component analysis and Logistics regression analysis, which will show the enterprise credit risk more intuitively. The paper puts forward the combination of external market environment, trade contracts, the cash flow of the actual situation and other measures to optimize and improve the enterprises’ financial statements analysis methods to help Z bank to make reasonable and correct credit decisions, reducing the credit risk.
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