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论文编号：	9455
作者编号：	1120110748
上传时间：	2017/12/5 13:08:43
中文题目：	经济政策不确定性对企业风险承担的影响研究
英文题目：	Research on the Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Corporate Risk Taking
指导老师：	刘志远 教授
中文关键字：	经济政策不确定性；企业风险承担；货币政策立场；金融危机
英文关键字：	Economic Policy Uncertainty; Corporate Risk Taking; Monetary Policy Stance; Financial Crisis
中文摘要：	摘要 企业愿意承担的风险水平是企业战略决策的一项重要内容。它不仅关系到企业的生存与发展，而且决定着国家和地区的创新能力与经济增长。因此近几年来受到学者们的广泛关注。按照制度经济学理论的观点，企业的决策行为会受到制度环境的影响。由于政府目标的多样性以及宏观经济的复杂多变，经济政策不确定性成为企业经营所无法回避的一个环境特征。那么，在经济政策具有不确定性的环境中，企业的风险承担决策会受到怎样的影响？这种影响又是否会因为企业特征或宏观环境的改变而存在异质性？都成为有待研究的问题。在此背景之下，论文将研究主题确定为经济政策不确定性对企业风险承担的影响，并具体考察三个问题：一是经济政策不确定性对企业风险承担的整体影响是什么？二是这种影响在微观企业层面有什么异质性？三是这种影响在宏观环境层面有什么异质性？ 论文的研究工作遵循从规范分析到实证检验的研究范式。首先，通过分析经济政策不确定性的一个重要特征——两面性，论文提出了两个竞争性假设。然后，在借鉴已有研究成果的基础上，论文搭建起一个理论分析框架——“政策预期模型”。在该模型中，企业在经济政策不确定性条件下的风险承担决策过程被划分为两个环节：政策预期环节和行为反馈环节。其后，通过讨论不同决策环节中企业风险承担决策行为的差异性，论文分别在微观层面和宏观层面上提出了一系列异质性假设。最后，利用Baker, et al.(2016)的中国经济政策不确定指数以及中国上市公司样本数据，论文对这些研究假设进行了实证检验。 研究发现，在控制了宏观经济与政策因素及企业特征之后，经济政策不确定性显著提升了中国企业的风险承担水平，且这种提升作用在微观层面和宏观层面均存在异质性。其中，在微观层面上，国有企业性质、股权集中度的提高以及管理者年龄的增长均会削弱这种提升作用，而男性管理者比例的提高则会增强该正向影响；在宏观层面上，紧缩的货币政策立场和房地产调控政策均会削弱这种提升作用，而在金融危机爆发后，该正向影响却会显著增强。 论文的研究工作一方面有助于增进对经济政策不确定性环境下企业的风险承担决策行为的理解，另一方面也为政府如何管控经济政策不确定性对微观企业行为及宏观经济运行的影响提供一定的决策依据。
英文摘要：	Abstract The risk level that enterprises are willing to take is an important part of corporate strategy decision. It not only concerns the survival and development of enterprises, but also determines the innovation ability and economic growth of the country and region. Thus, it has widely attracted the attention of scholars in recent years. According to the theory of institutional economics, the decision-making behavior of enterprises is affected by institutional environment. Due to the diversification of government goals and the complex and changeable macroeconomic conditions, economic policy uncertainty becomes an environmental feature that enterprises can't avoid.So, in an environment where economic policy is uncertain, how will the corporate risk taking behavior be affected? Does this influence have heterogeneity due to the change of enterprise characteristics or macro environment? All of these problems need to be studied. Under this background, the thesis will study the effect of economic policy uncertainty on corporate risk taking, and specifically investigates three problems: the first is what will be the overall effect of economic policy uncertainty on corporate risk taking. Second, what kinds of heterogeneities the effect has at the micro-enterprise level. Third, what kinds of heterogeneities the effect has at the macro-environment level. The research work of the paper follows the research paradigm from normative analysis to empirical test. First, by analyzing the double-sides of economic policy uncertainty, two competing hypothesis are proposed. Then, based on the existing research results, the paper builds up a theoretical analysis framework — "policy expectations model". In this model, the decision-making process of corporate risk taking under the conditions of economic policy uncertainty is divided into two steps: policy expectation and behavioral feedback. Subsequently, by discussing the difference of the corporate risk taking decision-making behaviors in two steps, the paper puts forward a series of heterogeneity hypotheses at the micro level and macro level. Finally, using the Chinese economic policy uncertainty index of Baker, et al.(2016) and a sample of A-share listed companies in China, the paper makes an empirical test of these research hypotheses. Study found that after controlling the macro economic and policy factors as well as corporate characters, economic policy uncertainty significantly promote the risk taking level of Chinese companies, and the promotion effect has heterogeneities at the micro level and macro level. Among them, in the micro level, the nature of state-owned enterprises, the increase of equity concentration and the growth of managers’s age will weaken this promotion effect, but the increase of the proportion of male managers will strengthen the positive influence; At the macro level, the tightening monetary policy stance and the real estate regulation policy will weaken the promotion effect, but after a financial crisis, it is enhanced significantly. The research work of this thesis, on the one hand, help to improve the understanding of corporate risk taking behavior under economic policy uncertainty environment; on the other hand, provides a decision-making basis for the government to controls the impact of economy policy uncertainty on the micro-corporate behavior as well as the macro-economic operation.
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