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论文编号：	9384
作者编号：	2120152480
上传时间：	2017/6/20 23:14:32
中文题目：	对卖方分析师盈余预测中乐观倾向形成机制的研究--基于主板上市公司数据
英文题目：	Study on Forming Mechanism of Optimistic Tendency in Securities Analysts Earning Forecast
指导老师：	黄福广
中文关键字：	证券分析师；盈利预测；乐观倾向；利益冲突；认知偏差
英文关键字：	Securities Analyst；Profit Prediction；Optimistic Tendency；Interests Conflict；Cognitive Bias
中文摘要：	卖方分析师所发布的盈余预测是其非常重要的向机构投资者和个人投资者传递信息的途径。本文阐述了国内卖方分析师盈利预测乐观倾向的形成机制，结合有效资本市场理论、信息不对称理论、委托-代理流年、羊群行为理论以及理性人假说分析了利益冲突和认知偏差这两个因素对卖方分析师在盈余预测中的乐观倾向的影响。本文选择wind数据库中2013年到2015年的卖方分析师盈余预测的数值以及上市公司财务数据作为研究对象对卖方分析师盈余预测中乐观倾向程度进行实证分析。首先，通过描述性统计分析发现，我国证券分析师从2013年开始一直到2015年在其盈利预测中都表现出明显的乐观倾向。其次，通过多元回归模型研究了证券分析师盈利预测偏差与上市公司年报发布日期距离盈余预测发布日的时间间隔、上市公司在某一年的预测机构数目、分析师在当年新财富排名中的位置和分析师所在券商是否与上市公司存在承销关系这四个影响因素之间的相关性来探寻我国证券分析师盈利预测中乐观倾向行为的特征。得出结论：卖方分析师盈利预测乐观倾向程度与上市公司年报发布日期距离盈余预测发布日的时间间隔成显著正相关关系，这说明盈余预测报告发布时间距上市公司年报公布日期越近时，卖方分析师的预测往往更加准确，因此乐观倾向也越低；卖方分析师盈利预测乐观倾向程度与预测机构数目成显著负相关关系，这说明上市公司被许多机构关注时，卖方分析师的预测往往较为谨慎，因此准确性也越高；卖方分析师盈利预测乐观程度与分析师在当年新财富排名中的位置呈显著正相关关系，这意味着当卖方分析师出在生涯初期，其为了增加自己的声誉，会发布较为准确也就是乐观倾向较低的盈余预测，而分析师成为明星分析师后，其为了增加个人利益会发布带有乐观倾向的研究报告；卖方分析师盈利预测乐观倾向程度与分析师所在券商是否与上市公司存在承销关系成显著正相关关系，这说明当卖方分析师所在券商与被预测上市公司存在承销关系时，分析师由于某种利益输送关系，会被所在券商要求发布带有乐观倾向的盈余预测报告。
英文摘要：	The earnings forecast released by the seller's analysts is a very important way to deliver information to institutional investors and individual investors. This paper expounds the formation mechanism of the optimism tendency of domestic seller's profit forecast, and analyzes the conflict of interest and the deviation of cognition with the theory of effective capital market, information asymmetry, principal-agent fleeting, herd behavior theory and rational person hypothesis The Influence of Factors on the Optimistic Interest of Seller Analysts in Earnings Forecast.  This paper chooses the value of the seller's earnings forecast from 2013 to 2015 in the wind database and the financial data of the listed company as the research object to analyze the optimism of the seller's earnings forecast. First, through descriptive statistical analysis, China's securities analysts have shown significant optimism in their earnings forecasts from 2013 to 2015. Secondly, through the multiple regression model, we study the time difference between the profit forecast of the securities analyst and the release date of the listed company. The number of the forecasting institutions of the listed company in one year, the position of the analyst in the new wealth rank of the year And the relationship between the four influencing factors of the underwriter relationship with the listed company and the existence of underwriting relationship of the listed company to explore the characteristics of the optimistic behavior in the profit forecast of our securities analyst. It is concluded that the degree of optimism of the seller's profit forecast is positively correlated with the time interval of the release date of the listed company from the date of publication of the earnings forecast, which means that the release of the earnings forecast report is closer to the date of publication of the annual report of the listed company Analysts' forecasts tend to be more accurate and therefore the lower the optimism is; the seller's earnings predictions tend to have a significant negative correlation with the number of forecasting institutions, indicating that when the listed companies are concerned by many institutions, the seller's analysts are often more Caution, and therefore the higher the accuracy; the seller's profit forecast is optimistic with the analyst in the new wealth rankings in the year was significantly positive correlation, which means that when the seller analyst in the early career, in order to increase their own Reputation, will be released more accurate is optimistic about the lower propensity to predict earnings, and analysts become star analysts, in order to increase their personal interests will be released with optimistic tendencies of the research report; sellers profit forecast optimistic degree of optimism and analysis Division where the broker is with the listed company In the underwriting relationship into a significant positive correlation, indicating that when the seller's broker where the broker and the listed company is underwriting relationship, the analyst due to a relationship of interest, will be required by the broker to publish with the optimistic expectations of the earnings forecast report.
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