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论文编号：	9309
作者编号：	2120152485
上传时间：	2017/6/19 22:22:30
中文题目：	CEO过度自信与企业风险承担关系研究——基于预期任期的调节作用
英文题目：	Research on the Relationship of CEO Overconfidence and Firm Risk Taking——Based on the Moderate Effect of Expected Tenure
指导老师：	李莉
中文关键字：	CEO；过度自信；预期任期；企业风险承担
英文关键字：	CEO; Overconfidence; Expected Tenure; Firm Risk Taking
中文摘要：	企业在经营、投资和融资等各方面决策中对于风险倾向的选择事关到企业的未来发展。较高的风险承担水平有利于提升企业的绩效和价值，但发生业绩恶化、破产等不利事件的可能性也比较高。较低的企业风险承担虽然能给企业带来稳定的回报，但也意味着低回报可能使得企业未来发展不足。随着经济全球化进度的推进，企业所面临的外部环境不确定性也逐渐增加。在这种情况下，怎么去增加或降低风险承担水平对于企业而言十分重要。 企业的CEO在其各方面决策中起着重要的影响，而国内外相关研究发现，CEO过度自信是企业中经常存在的一种情况，这种情况在国内企业中更为普遍。那么CEO的这种个人心理特征是否会影响企业的风险承担水平？此外，预期任期作为一种对于管理者职业生涯关注的隐性激励，逐渐受到学者们的关注。那么，预期任期的长短是否会调节CEO过度自信与企业风险承担水平之间的关系？本文则主要基于这两个问题进行研究。 本文从CEO认知的角度出发，理论分析了CEO过度自信与企业风险承担水平之间的关系，以及CEO预期任期对该关系的调节作用，并以2012-2015年我国上交所和深交所的A股上市公司为研究样本进行实证检验。研究结果表明：在我国非国有上市公司中，CEO是否过度自信与企业风险承担水平呈显著正相关关系，而该关系在国有上市公司中不成立。同时，CEO预期任期对该关系具有正向调节作用。 本文基于CEO认知的角度，研究了过度自信这种个人特征对于企业风险承担的直接影响以及预期任期这种隐性激励机制对于企业风险承担的间接作用路径。一方面丰富了当前对于这三者关系的相关研究，另一方面为企业对于不同类型管理者的遴选以及激励机制的安排提供了一定的参考依据。
英文摘要：	The choice of risk tendency towards operation, investment and financing is related to the future development of enterprises. A higher level of risk taking is conducive to enhance the performance and value of enterprises, but the possibility of deterioration of performance, bankruptcy and other adverse events is relatively higher. The lower risk taking of corporates can bring stable returns, but also means that low returns may make enterprises under develop in the future. With the pushing progress of economic globalization, the external environmental uncertainty of enterprises is increasing gradually. In this case, how to increase or reduce the level of risk taking is very important for enterprises. The CEOs of enterprises play an important role in all aspects of decision-making, and both domestic and foreign research found that CEO overconfidence is a kind of common situation for enterprises, which is more common in domestic enterprises. So CEO's personal psychological characteristics will affect the level of risk-taking? In addition, the expected term, as a kind of implicit incentive to the managers' career, has been paid more and more attention. So, whether the expected length of tenure will regulate the relationship between CEO overconfidence and the level of corporate risk-taking? This paper is mainly based on these two issues. This article starts from the CEO cognitive perspective, theoretically analyses the relationship between CEO overconfidence and corporate risk taking, and the moderating effects of expected term of CEO, and then empirically tests them with dates from 2012-2015 China's Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares of listed companies .The results show that there is significant positive correlation between CEO overconfidence and the level of corporate risk-taking in China's non-state-owned listed companies, while it is not found for state-owned listed companies. At the same time, the expected term of CEO has positive moderating effect on the relationship. The paper is based on the perspective of cognition, and studies the direct effects of overconfidence on the enterprise risk taking and the indirect action path of expected term, the implicit incentive mechanism, for enterprise risk taking. On the one hand, it enriches the current research on the relationship between them, on the other hand, it provides a reference for the selection of different types of managers and the arrangement of incentive mechanism.
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