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论文编号：	925
作者编号：	2120072277
上传时间：	2009/5/24 15:50:17
中文题目：	证券投资基础分析及其在房地产业
英文题目：	Basic analysis of investments
指导老师：	齐寅峰
中文关键字：	证券投资基础分析 房地产业 房地
英文关键字：	Basic analysis of investment i
中文摘要：	摘　要 价值投资派认为，价值决定价格，价格波动最终回归公司基本面，而公司的价值分析，不能脱离宏观经济和行业生态环境，不能脱离公司基本面，如何系统把握基础分析的理论框架和脉络，如何进行宏观、中观、微观层面的分析，是证券投资最重要、最关键的课题之一。房地产行业作为证券投资的重点行业之一，如何把握其投资要点，弄清宏观经济是如何影响房地产业的，弄清房地产行业如何条分缕析，公司分析应着重哪些方面，公司财务分析和价值评估如何进行，这些问题作为房地产证券投资都是避不开的话题。 本文以证券投资基础分析为主线，运用了案例分析、数值分析、比较研究等方法，主要关注了包括宏观经济和政策分析、产业分析和公司分析的基本框架以及宏观经济与房地产市场的关系、我国房地产市场的现状、未来发展趋势和房地产上市公司招商地产的基本面分析等。目的在于试图加深对房地产行业理解，获得对地产行业及上市公司的一定的洞察力，获得对地产行业投资的一些启示，从而尝试着对证券市场的地产板块配置给出一些建议。 本文共分六章。第一章是绪论部分，介绍了本文的选题背景、研究意义、研究现状、研究内容、研究方法，说明了本文的逻辑结构。第二章是证券投资基础分析理论回顾，介绍了证券投资基础分析的理论框架，主要包括宏观经济分析、行业分析、公司分析的主要理论和方法。宏观经济分析主要包括指标分析、经济政策分析和周期分析。上市公司分析主要包括公司的竞争地位分析、产品分析、企业战略分析、竞争优势分析与核心竞争力、管理水平评估、公司财务分析等。第三章是房地产市场与宏观经济基本面的关系，介绍了宏观经济指标与房地产市场的联系、宏观经济政策与房地产市场的联系等内容。其中，宏观经济指标主要选择了GDP、人均可支配收入、通货膨胀、利率，经济政策主要选择了货币政策和财政政策两项内容。 第四章是现阶段我国房地产市场状况，对2008年我国房地产市场运行指标进行了全面分析，包括行业景气度指标、房地产市场供给状况、需求状况、市场价格变动情况等，并对2009年我国房地产发展趋势进行了预测，包括行业调整继续、调控政策预测、房价继续下调、房地产企业转型等。第五章是房地产上市公司—招商地产分析，主要包括经营模式、竞争优势、公司财务分析和价值评估等内容。其中着重进行了财务分析和价值评估，包括财务报表分析、财务效率分析、以及杜邦分析法综合分析等，并用稳定增长股权现金流折现模型和相对价值方法对招商地产进行了价值评估。第六章为结论部分，对本文的主要讨论内容进行了概括，得出结论，并介绍了本文的创新点。本文的新颖之处在于以下三个方面： 以往对证券投资基础分析的讨论多停留在宏观层面进行，本文把证券投资基础分析结合一个具体行业—房地产行业来进行，更贴近经济的实际、产业的实际，贴近公司基本面。 本文将宏观经济与房地产市场的关系通过各自指标的历史数据进行对比分析，发现二者的互动关系，用历史数据说话，增加说服力和可信性。 本文将财务分析和价值评估的理论应用在房地产上市公司，运用财务报表分析的理论、财务效率分析的理论等对招商地产公司的资产状况、利润状况和现金流状况以及盈利能力、偿债能力、和发展能力进行了具体分析；运用杜邦分析法对公司的财务状况进行了综合分析；运用股权自由现金流贴现模型对招商地产公司价值进行了评估，并结合相对价值模型进行了印证。 关键词： 证券投资基础分析 房地产业 房地产市场 财务分析
英文摘要：	Abstract The value investment allocation believe that price is determined by the value of company. And they believe that price fluctuations return to fundamentals finally. Analysis of the company's value can not be divorced from macroeconomic and industry environment; can not be divorced from company fundamentals. How to grasp theoretical framework of fundamental analysis systematically and how to carry out macro, meso, micro-level analysis is one of the most important topics of securities investment. As the real estate industry is one of the key industries of securities investment, how to grasp main points of investment to them, to understand how the macro-economic influence the real estate industry, to understand how to analyze the real estate industry, what aspects should be focused on company analysis, how to carry out the company's financial analysis and valuation.These questions are topics which we can not avoid when we investment in the real estate industry. This paper’s main line is basic analysis of investments in securities. In this paper I use methods of study such as case analysis, numerical analysis, and comparative study. I focus on framework of macroeconomic analysis、policy analysis、industry Analysis、company Analysis、relationship between Macro-economic and the real estate market、current situation of China's real estate market、the future development trend、 fundamental analysis of Zhao Shang Di Chan company. I aim at trying to deepen understanding of the real estate industry and accessing to a certain degree of insight of the real estate industry and listed companies, obtaining some enlightenment on the real estate sector to invest and trying to give some advice on the allocation of real estate securities market. This article is divided into six chapters. The first chapter is the introduction part, to describe the background of the subjects,significance of research, the status、methods and content of studies, and to show the logical structure. Chapter II is theory review of basic analysis of investments in securities, to introduce the theoretical framework of the analysis of investments in securities including the main theory and methods of macroeconomic analysis、industry analysis and company analysis. Macroeconomic analysis includes index analysis, economic policy analysis and cycle analysis. Company analysis includes analysis of competitive position, product analysis, business strategy analysis, competitive advantage analysis, core competitiveness, management assessment and financial analysis. Chapter III talk about relationship between the real estate market and macroeconomic fundamentals, introducing connection between macroeconomic indicators and the real estate market, connection between macroeconomic policies and the real estate market, and so on. The main macroeconomic indicators include GDP, per capita disposable income, inflation and interest rates, economic policy include monetary and financial policies. Chapter IV is China's real estate market conditions at this stage, conducting a comprehensive analysis of China's real estate market indicators in 2008, including boom industry index, the real estate market supply, demand conditions, and changes in market prices, and predicting development trend of China's real estate in 2009, including industry’s continuing to adjust, control policy forecasting, price’s continued falling, business transformation in the real estate, and so on. Chapter V is analysis to a real estate listed company--Zhao Shang Di Chan, including business model, competitive advantage, the company's financial analysis and valuation, in which I focus on financial analysis and valuation, including Financial statements analysis, financial efficiency analysis and a comprehensive analysis with DuPont Analysis. Using steady growth in equity discounted cash flow model and the method of relative value I carry out to assess the value of Zhao Shang Di Chan. Chapter VI is the conclusion part, summarizing main issues discussed in this article, coming to the conclusion, introducing the innovation of this article. The novelty of this paper is in the following three aspects: In the past,discussion of basic analysis of investments in securities was focused on the macro level. In this paper, I combine it with a specific industry － the real estate industry,so that make it be closer to the real economy, the actual industry and company fundamentals. In this paper, I carry out a comparative analysis in relationship between Macro-economic and the real estate market through their historical data of indicators. I find the interaction between the two using historical data to increase the persuasiveness and credibility. In this article I use financial analysis and valuation theory in the real estate listed companies, I conduct a detailed analysis using the financial statements theory and the financial efficiency analysis theory to assets, profits, cash flow situation and profitability, solvency, development capacity of Zhao Shang Real Estate Company. I conduct a comprehensive analysis to the company's financial position using DuPont Analysis. I assessed the value of Zhao Shang Real Estate Company with equity free cash flow discount model, and confirm it with the relative value model. Key words: Basic analysis of investment in securities Real Estate Real Estate Market Financial Analysis
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