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论文编号：	9158
作者编号：	2220150410
上传时间：	2017/6/8 9:19:21
中文题目：	HB市电厂余热集中供热BOT项目风险管理研究
英文题目：	Research on Risk Management for BOT Project of the Central
指导老师：	程莉莉
中文关键字：	电厂余热;集中供热;BOT项目;风险管理
英文关键字：	power plant waste heat; central heating; BOT project; risk management
中文摘要：	由于我国的城市面积不断扩展，对集中供暖的需求日益增长。面对当前全球能源紧张的现状，城镇集中供热受到了较大制约，特别是我国北方各大中城市现阶段以燃煤为主的供热行业面临着非常严重的热源不足的问题，而新投资电厂、采暖燃煤锅炉又对大气造成污染，属于政府机构所大力抑制的项目。同时高耗能工业企业排放废热现象普遍，特别是火力发电厂，余热资源浪费严重，余热浪费与建筑供热热源不足之间的矛盾急待解决。因此城市电厂余热供热项目应运而生，利用热泵技术，可在原有火电厂的煤炭使用量的基础上，利用余热资源满足城区用户采暖需求。 城市电厂余热集中供热BOT项目是跨行业多领域系统集成项目，项目投资金额大、涉及系统复杂、建设运营时间长、涉及利益相关方多，存在较多的项目风险因素。为此，本文就该项目风险管理问题进行了研究和探讨，以期得到合理的城市电厂余热集中供热BOT项目风险管理体系，选择科学的项目管理方法，充分对其项目风险展开识别、评价进而提出应对方法，归纳总结项目经验。 首先，本论文研究了城市电厂余热集中供热BOT项目识别方法及内容，对BOT项目的全过程进行识别，同时结合BOT项目全要素进行风险分析，建立项目风险指标清单。其次，在城市电厂余热集中供热BOT项目风险识别的基础上应用层次分析法（AHP）对项目风险进行评价，针对HB市电厂余热集中供热BOT项目，通过AHP法对风险因素的比重作衡量，编制了项目风险评级层次，计算各种风险的综合权重，确定主要的风险因素。最后在项目风险识别、评价的基础上，对各种风险应对措施了作了具体的方案，实现了最初提出的研究目标。本论文的项目风险内容来自于本人亲身的项目工作经历及管理实践，根据实际项目中存在的风险进行了相应的风险管理，归纳出适合于余热供热BOT项目风险管理措施，指导同类型在建及待建项目的风险管理研究。
英文摘要：	Because our country's urban area is expanding, growing demand for central heating. Facing the current global energy tense situation, urban central heating is restricted by the larger, especially in major cities in north China at the present stage mainly coal-fired heating industry is facing very serious the problem of insufficient heat source, and the thermal power plant, large coal-fired boiler room and bring environmental problems, by environmental protection departments around the strictly controlled. Energy intensive industrial enterprises discharge waste heat phenomenon generally at the same time, especially in thermal power plants, waste heat resource waste is serious, the contradiction between the waste heat of heat source and buildings presses for solution. Therefore urban power plant waste heat heating project arises at the historic moment, the use of heat pump technology, but without any increase in coal-fired power plant coal consumption, on the basis of recycling waste heat to meet the needs of the user heating. City district heating power plant heat in BOT project is a cross-industry multidisciplinary system integration project, construction project investment amount is large, complex, involving system operating time is long, involve stakeholders, there are more project risk factors. Therefore, in this thesis, the project risk management problems are studied and discussed, in order to get reasonable urban district heating power plant heat in BOT project risk management system, scientific project management methods, fully on the project risk identification, evaluation and put forward the countermeasures, sum up experience of the project. First of all, this thesis studies the city power plant waste heat central heating BOT project identification methods and content, the whole process of BOT project identification, according to total factor of BOT project risk identification at the same time, the thesis establishes an index system of project risk. Secondly, in the city power plant waste heat central heating BOT project on the basis of the hierarchy process (AHP) to evaluate project risk, combined with HB city district heating power plant heat in BOT project, the proportion of risk factors are analyzed by analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and were analyzed, and the project risk evaluation model is constructed, to calculate comprehensive weights of various risk, identify the main risk factors. Finally on the basis of project risk identification, assessment, for a variety of risk countermeasures put forward the concrete plan, to achieve the goal initially proposed research. In this thesis, we study the content of the project risk from my personal working experience in project and management practices , summed up for waste heat heating BOT project risk management measures, to guide the same type building and constructing the project risk management research.
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