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论文编号：	9147
作者编号：	2220150372
上传时间：	2017/6/8 8:02:16
中文题目：	永利化工22万吨丁辛醇项目后评估研究
英文题目：	The Post Occupancy Evaluation of 220 kt/a OXO in Yongli Chemical Industry
指导老师：	翟磊
中文关键字：	22万吨丁辛醇项目；后评估研究；层次分析；模糊数学
英文关键字：	220kt/a OXO; Post-Occupancy Evaluation; AHP; Fuzzy mathematics
中文摘要：	项目后评估是项目生命周期中不可或缺的重要环节之一，同时也是提高项目决策水平的重要途径，还是完善项目管理的重要方法。后评估的理论在其近百年的发展过程中不断完善，其技术方法也应用到了越来越多不同的项目和领域中。 在国内，发改委、国资委都就项目后评估一事做出了明确要求，但由于后评估是一项非常系统和专业的工作，很少有企业会设置专门的后评估部门，国内也没有独立的第三方评估机构，从而导致后评估工作的开展和深入程度不如预期。鉴于作者公司目前对项目后评估的工作还处于空白阶段，因此，本文对永利化工公司22万吨丁辛醇项目开展后评估工作是非常必要的。 本文在检索、分析了大量文献的基础上，对国内外项目后评估的发展及常用的方法和工具进行了梳理，针对22万吨丁辛醇项目的特点，建立该项目的后评估指标体系，构建了包括总目标层、一级指标层和二级指标层的后评估评价体系，通过实践的经验，确定一级指标层选取项目决策阶段、建设施工阶段、生产运行阶段、投资与经济效益阶段、项目影响阶段以及项目可持续性阶段等六个方面，二级指标层包括项目决策程序、项目进度管理、市场预测、资金筹措情况、环境影响、项目财务可持续性等22个要素作为支撑。本文详细阐述了22万吨丁辛醇项目后评估指标体系的构建原则和思路，通过对后评估方法的选择，确定了使用层次分析法确定指标权重，使用模糊数学法对评分数据进行计算，最终得出了项目的后评估结果。
英文摘要：	Post-Occupancy Evaluation is the most necessary step in project life, and the most important way to enhance project decision-making level and the important process to improve the project management. The post-occupancy evaluation theory has improved during its hundred year’s development, and there are many tools has also used in many different projects. In China, the post-occupancy evaluation has not carried out as good as expected. There is no independent third-party institution to do this job and also no special department were set in company, although the National Development and Reform Commission and the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission have both clearly clarified the relative issues about post-occupancy evaluation which have systematic and professional working procedures. The work of post-occupancy evaluation has not carried out in writer’s company, so it is quite essential to do a post-occupancy evaluation about the 22kt/a OXO project. This thesis regulated the development and basic tools of project post-occupancy evaluation theory in domestic and overseas based on searching and analyzing many literatures. The writer established an effective post-occupancy evaluation method aim at the characteristics of the project, including the main objective level, primary objective level and second objective level, and based on the practical experience, the writer determine to evaluate the project from project decision-making, project construction, project operating, investment and economic performance, project influence and project sustainability. Second objective level including decision-making procedure, project schedule management, market forecast, the financing situation, environment impact and other 22 items. The thesis state the principle and method of establishing the post-occupancy evaluation model, and finally get the conclusion by using Analytic Hierarchy Process to confirm the index weight and using Fuzzy mathematics to calculate the data which is from professionals.
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