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论文编号：	9146
作者编号：	2220120312
上传时间：	2017/6/8 6:56:31
中文题目：	土耳其地下天然气储库EPC项目风险管理研究
英文题目：	Research on Risk Management of Implement the Tuz G?lü Underground Gas Storage EPC Project in Turkey
指导老师：	焦媛媛
中文关键字：	地下天然气储库，EPC总承包项目，风险分析，风险管理
英文关键字：	Tu z Golu Underground Gas Storage Project (UGS); EPC Project; Risk Analysis; Risk Management
中文摘要：	海外市场的机遇与发展为工程总承包企业带来了更多的发展契机。随着国际工程市场的不断发展，中国工程企业正不断的走向海外。在ENR2016年度250家国际最大承包商排名中，上榜的中国企业共占据了65个席位（2012年54席位，2015年65席位）（2016年ENR杂志）。习近平总书记提出的“一带一路”政策，让更多的工程企业看到了“走出去”创业发展的良好机遇。国际工程市场的竞争激烈化、国际金融环境的不稳定性、国外法律、市场的不确定性，以及近期中东、欧洲等国际政治局势动荡，局部战事升级，难民增加以及脱欧影响，海外项目面临的风险也逐渐上升。在以往的案例中，我们已看到很多的中国企业在海外项目承包中出现了折戟，比如沙特麦加高铁、波兰A2高速公路。分析项目失败的主因，一方面是对项目所在国家的环境不了解，另一方面是项目承包管理不力。但最根本的，还是缺乏足够的的项目风险管理意识，在投标报价阶段、项目运行策划阶段未能充分识别项目风险并进行风险的评估和管控，面对风险时又没有采用行之有效的风险监控手段、风险预警机制或其他措施。因此，海外项目的风险管理研究已经成为项目管理不可缺少的一部分。本论文在此背景下，首先对项目风险识别及项目风险管理理论等知识进行系统的回顾和归纳，并结合实际正在实施的“土耳其地下天然气储库EPC项目”，应用相关理论，对海外EPC总承包工程的风险管理进行研究，通过在实际工程实施中的风险识别、风险评估、风险评价、风险管理和风险控制，从技术上、法律、政治、经济、汇率、社会环境等方面，采用专家调查分析法和损失期望值法相结合的风险综合评价法，对项目的风险进行了分析、评价，并就项目实际情况制定了应对不同风险的具体措施，同时在项目中进行实际实施操作，规避或者尽量降低风险发生概率和损失额的目的，确保项目达到预定目标，并为后续海外EPC项目提供经验和数据，以供借鉴和参考。
英文摘要：	Opportunities and development of overseas markets have brought more opportunities for development of project contracting enterprises. Based on the international engineering market development, Chinese engineering enterprises are constantly going abroad. Among top 250 international contractors in ENR 2016, Chinese enterprises occupy 65 seats (54 seats in 2012, 65 seats in 2015) (2016 ENR magazine). Implementation of “the Belt and Road Initiatives” has created favorable conditions for more domestic engineering company to develop oversea market. Meanwhile, with the intensification of competition in international engineering market, instability of the international financial environment, uncertainty of laws and markets in foreign country, and impact of political turmoil in Middle East and Europe, international contracting enterprises are confronting more and more risks. Many Chinese enterprises have gone abroad but their profit once decreased, such as Mecca igh-speed Rail Project in Saudi Arabia and Poland A2 Highway Project. The main reasons for such loss is insufficient understanding of risk and management in international EPC projects, insufficient assessment of risk magnitude and its consequence, unscientific risk management method and strategies. So, the Oversea Project risk management is becoming the most important issue in the Project Management System. Based on such background, this thesis systematically sums up the risk identification and risk management theory. By combining with the EPC project named Tuz Golu UGS in Turkey executed, applying relevant project risk management theories, studying risk identification, proceeding risk evaluation, risk assessment, risk management and risk control in project execution, and adopting Expert Investigating Method and Loss Expectancy Method to comprehensive assess the actual situation of the project, this thesis develops specific measures to deal with different risks and studies how to implement such measures during project execution, so as to avoid or minimize risk probability and to ensure the project to achieve the desired objectives, and to provide experience and reference data for follow-up overseas EPC projects.
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