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论文编号：	9127
作者编号：	2120153001
上传时间：	2017/6/7 18:48:48
中文题目：	供热锅炉房并网及调峰工程风险管理研究
英文题目：	Research on Risk Management of Implement the Merger and Adjustment of Heating Boiler Room
指导老师：	石鉴
中文关键字：	风险管理;热电联产;集中供热项目
英文关键字：	Risk management;Cogeneration;Centralized heating
中文摘要：	随着中国逐步向市场经济转型，作为市场经济的主体的工程项目对于中国经济健康稳定发展的作用越来越凸显，同时也致使项目实施过程中将面临更加复杂的风险。作为关系着国计民生的重要项目，城市热电联产项目也难以避免地面临多种且复杂的风险。本论文以供热锅炉房并网及调峰工程项目作为典型案例，结合本人所供职的津安热电公司在项目实施中的情况对城市热电联产项目面对的风险进行科学性的分析，并提出科学的解决措施及合理的实施方案，以求对供热行业的健康发展做出贡献。本文的研究主要包括以下几个主要内容：第一部分，文献综述。本论文的主要理论基础是项目管理理论、风险管理理论及项目风险管理理论。因此，本论文对风险管理主要内容的定义、风险的分类，风险管理的过程等相关联的重点内容进行了较为详细的阐述，以求对本论文的研究的顺利进行提供较为充足的理论方面的基础。第二部分，风险识别。在对风险管理的相关理论作出较为详细的论述的基础之上，论文将运用较为科学的风险识别的办法，包括德尔菲专家调查法等各种相对科学的办法，找出城市热电联产供热项目实施中将面对的风险。并就这些可能遇到的风险进行较为详细的阐述说明。第三部分，风险应对措施及实施方案。在现有的风险管理及相关理论的基础上，通过对第二部分各个专家根据项目实际情况分析出的风险分别提出较为针对性的应对措施及实施，达到为热电联产项目的安全稳定运营提供一定借鉴意义的目的。本论文的主要结论如下： 1.由于城市热电联产供热项目最终所产出的产品同其他传统制造行业的项目相比，具有较强的自身独特性，也致使该类型项目在实施过程中将面临的风险较其他行业有较大的差别，主要有热费回收风险，市场开拓风险，决策风险，业务外包风险等等各种风险。 2.城市热电联产供热项目在实施过程中将面临的风险很多，各个风险对于项目实施的影响或者造成的损失的程度是不尽相同的。总体上来讲，通过对其他同类项目情况的了解，并结合项目的自身的特性来看，热费回收风险及业务外包风险等是项目在实施中主要面对的风险。一是因为这些风险是可管理和可控制的，同时也是因为这些风险将对项目实施造成非常大的影响，这是决定项目的核心竞争力的根本所在，因此，项目更应该重点对这些风险加强关注。
英文摘要：	With the gradual transition from China to the market economy, the main project of the market economy has become more and more prominent for the healthy and stable development of China's economy, and at the same time, it will face more complicated risks in the implementation of the project. As an important project related to the people's livelihood, urban cogeneration projects are also difficult to face a variety of complex risks. In this thesis, taking Merger and Adjustment of Heating Boiler Room for a typical case, combined with the work of the company's Tianjin Jin’An Thermal Power Co., Ltd in the implementation of the project on the city of cogeneration projects to face the risk of scientific analysis, and Put forward scientific measures and reasonable implementation of the program, in order to contribute to the healthy development of the heating industry. The main contents of this thesis include the following main contents: The first part, literature review. The main theoretical basis of this thesis is project management theory, risk management theory and project risk management theory. Therefore, this thesis elaborates the main contents of the definition of risk management, the classification of risk, the process of risk management and so on, so as to provide a more theoretical basis for the study of the thesis. The second part, risk identification. On the basis of the more detailed discussion on the theory of risk management, the thesis will use the more scientific risk identification methods, including the Delphi expert investigation method and other relatively scientific methods to find the city cogeneration heating The implementation of the project will face the risk. And on these possible risks are described in more detail. The third part, the risk response measures and the implementation plan. Based on the existing risk management and related theories, through the second part of the experts according to the actual situation of the project analysis of the risk of a more targeted response measures and implementation, to achieve the purpose of providing some reference for the secure and stable operation of cogeneration projects.. The main conclusions of this thesis are as follows: 1. Since the products produced by the city's CHP heating project have strong self-uniqueness compared with other traditional manufacturing industries, the risk of this type of project will be more risky than that of other industries There are major differences, there are risks of hot recovery, market development risks, decision-making risk, business outsourcing risk and so on all kinds of risks. 2. The city cogeneration project will face a lot of risks in the implementation process, the impact of each risk on the implementation of the project or the extent of the loss caused by the different. In general, through the understanding of other similar projects, combined with the characteristics of the project itself, the risk of heat recovery and business outsourcing risk is the main risk of the project in the implementation of the risk. This is because these risks are manageable and controllable, and because these risks will have a significant impact on project implementation, which is fundamental to determining the core competencies of the project, and therefore the project should focus more on these risks attention.
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