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论文编号：	910
作者编号：	2120071999
上传时间：	2009/5/22 22:55:52
中文题目：	上市公司财务预测性信息披露及其
英文题目：	Research on Information Disclo
指导老师：	张晓农
中文关键字：	财务预测;业绩预告;市场反应;信<
英文关键字：	Financial Forecast;Earning Pre
中文摘要：	在资本市场中，维护信息公开，提高信息效率，是保障投资者利益，实现资源优化配置的关键。资本市场的有效运行和健康发展依赖于其完善的信息披露制度尤其是财务预测性信息的公开披露制度。从1990年建立至今不到20年的时间里，中国的证券市场经历了飞速的发展和不断的完善，其信息披露制度也是不断完善。财务预测性信息作为证券市场中备受关注的信息，在其披露制度推出后就引起了广大学者的研究。随着资本市场大环境的变化，中国证券市场中财务预测性信息的披露制度如何，及财务预测性信息的市场反应如何，是本文研究的重点。 本研究首先阐述了财务预测性信息披露的理论基础，深层次了解了财务预测性信息披露制度推出的必然性。同时还从三个方面做了中外相关文献的回顾，即市场反应方面、披露动机方面、预测性信息的准确性方面，为后续的研究打下了基础。 其次本研究对中国的财务预测性信息披露制度的变迁做了较为详尽的描述。主要是从以盈利预测为主的发行市场财务预测性信息披露和以业绩预告为主的交易市场财务预测性信息披露两个方面分别做了介绍。并从中得到了制度建设方面的启示。 再次本研究对预测性信息披露的市场反应进行了实证研究。主要是用业绩预告作为财务预测性信息的研究对象，选取最新的上市公司的交易数据，利用事件研究法，按预告类型分类进行了实证研究。检验了中国上市公司的年度业绩预告的披露的信息含量、披露效应、市场预期效应和不同类型预告之间的市场反应异同。 最后，通过分析以上研究的结果，得出本研究的结论，并为中国证券市场财务预测性信息披露制度的建设提出相应的建议。
英文摘要：	In the capital market, safeguarding the fair of information, improving the efficiency of information are the key in protecting the interests of investors, and achieving optimal allocation of resources. The effective operating of capital markets and its healthy development depend on sound disclosure system of information, especially the public disclosure system which about the predictive financial information. During the less than 20 years from 1990, the Chinese securities market has gotten rapid development and achieved continuous improvement. And its information disclosure system is being perfected. Predictive financial information as the central issue has been researching by many scholars after its disclosure system presented. With the changes of capital market environment, how about the prediction of financial information disclosure systems in Chinese securities market, and the response of predictive financial information in market are the focus of this article to the study. Firstly, this study sets out the basis theoretic of predictive financial information disclosure, and expatiates the necessary of launch of predictive information disclosure system at a deeper level. At the same time this research takes a review of Chinese and abroad from three aspects, those are, the market response, the motives of disclosure , the accuracy of the predictive messages, which lay a foundation for the following study. Secondly, this research gives a detailed description of the changes about Chinese predictive financial information’s disclosure. Mainly from profit-oriented distribution market predictive financial information disclosure and notice to the performance of market-based predictive financial information disclosed separately to do the introduction. And get the enlightenment about the system construction. Thirdly, this research gives a empirical research about the market reaction of disclosure of information on the predictability. Mainly view the notice performance as the research object of predictive financial information, and selecting the latest transaction data of listed companies, using case study method, carrying out empirical study according the type of classification. Then test the information content about the notice of annual results' disclosure, the effect of disclosure and the market expectations, and the different market reaction from different types of notices be disclosed of Chinese listed companies. Finally by analyzing the above finding, the research get the conclusions about this study, and bring forward corresponding advances for construction of Chinese stock market's predictive financial information disclosure system.
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