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论文编号：	8828
作者编号：	2120143021
上传时间：	2016/12/8 22:03:46
中文题目：	天津市M电厂新建项目风险管理研究
英文题目：	Analysis on Risk Management of M Power Plant Expansion Project in Tianjin City
指导老师：	程莉莉
中文关键字：	电力工程;新建项目;风险管理
英文关键字：	Power engineering;New project;Risk management
中文摘要：	面对国家节能减排的大政方针，相关电力企业的新建项目的风险管理也越来越重要。因此，非常有必要详细的探讨项目风险管理的各个环节，以防范投资风险，提高资金利用率、获得更多的投资效益。本文以Ｍ电厂新建项目为课题，首先分析了国内电力项目投资的实际情况，介绍了相关的风险理论，然后，指明了天津市M电厂目前新项目的特征，以及建设的意义，最后，在目前条件的基础上，对于风险的评估、预控进行了必要的阐述。 本文根据相关风险理论具体探讨了该电厂新项目在前期阶段、建设阶段与经营阶段可能出现的风险及某些问题，在前期阶段，项目的风险主要体现于政策、环保、煤源与水源等方面，建设期风险主要体现于工程造价风险、施工组织风险等方面，经营阶段风险主要包括燃料价格风险、电力市场风险、设备可靠性风险、供电可靠性风险等方面。在风险评估方法方面使用分析评价法，得出了风险处理的先后顺序：分别是施工组织风险，工程造价风险，燃料价格风险，设备可靠性风险，电力市场风险，水源风险，环保风险，供电可靠性风险，煤源风险，政策风险这一顺序；同时对风险也做了定性分析。 本文对于各个阶段的风险情况都给出了适合的对策，由于做好了对前期风险的预防，所以，当资源或者政策出现变化时，不会影响项目开工；对于建设阶段风险主要是通过预防、降低、以及控制与转移等方法，来保证项目质量，使项目不出现安全事故，按期完成；经营风险的防范重点在市场，要从原料市场与发电市场着手，选择适合的防范办法，保证电厂效益。
英文摘要：	China's economic development today,the state has increased the intensity of investment in power,so the whole aspect of the analysis of power projects investment,reduce blind investment,to avoid investment risks,improve the efficiency of investment is necessary.This paper aims at the actual situation of electric power construction project investment in China,summarizes the theory of empirical risk and risk management,system analysis of Tianjin M power plant project characteristics, and points out the necessity of the construction,in the original conditions on the use of profit and loss balance method and sensitivity analysis method to analysis the economic structure calculation and test. By using the theory of risk in each stage of the project before the new stage, construction stage,operation stage and other possible problems and risk analysis on the development of Tianjin M power plant,at the beginning of the development phase,project policy,coal source,water source and environmental risk. The policy risk is that the stability of the policy,site selection should first consider the source of coal and water,which will affect the engineering construction. Environmental risk is very important in the evaluation of the project. In the construction period,the thesis mainly analyzes the project cost risk and construction organization risk,in the operation period,the main factors that affect the profit and loss of the power plant is the risk of fuel price change and the risk of the power market. According to the risk of different periods,the thesis puts forward the corresponding preventive measures. Through the prevention of early risk,ensure that the policy changes or loss of resources and other issues,the project can not be started. To prevent the risk of construction period should be taken to prevent,reduce, control, transfer and other methods,to ensure that no time limit for a project is not delayed,quality standards,no occurrence of safety hazards. Prevention of operational risks is mainly to solve the market problems,from the raw material market and power generation market to take measures to ensure the profitability of the power plant.
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