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论文编号：	8660
作者编号：	2120142870
上传时间：	2016/12/6 19:56:28
中文题目：	中国股评名博预测能力的实证研究
英文题目：	The Empirical Reaserch on Chinese Famous Stock Bloggers’ Predictive Ability
指导老师：	牛芳
中文关键字：	股评；博客；预测能力；人气
英文关键字：	Stock comments; Blogger; Predictive Ability; Popularity
中文摘要：	21世纪以来，随着互联网和移动网络的普及，通过网络发表股市预测观点渐渐成为了主流的股评方式。其中，博客平台又是发布网络股评信息的主要阵地。在该平台上，诞生了一类影响广泛、颇受追捧的网络股评家，即股评名博。他们的预测观点通常关系到不少股民的投资决策，而这一新兴股评群体的预测能力究竟如何，目前学术界的研究较少。因此，本文将对此进行探究。 新浪博客起步较早，发展良好，活跃用户多，是国内最具影响力的博客平台。本文选取该平台股评领域总访问量排名前50的博主在2015年3月2日至8月31日共128个交易日中发表的股市预测信息作为样本，对股评名博的预测能力进行了验证。研究结果显示：从整体角度来看，股评名博群体能够对行情进行一定程度的预测，并且在下降趋势中预测的效果较为理想；从个体角度来看，股评名博中存在名不副实现象，其预测能力和人气度并不相关。随后，本文从股评名博的职业背景、开通博客时间和利益特征几方面，对其预测能力差异的相关因素进行了探究。研究发现，股评名博的职业背景和利益特征与其预测能力并不相关，但2009年（含）以后开通博客的名博群体的预测准确性更高。 总的来看，股评名博群体的投资建议具备一定的参考价值，但是若想从中选择投资顾问，不能简单的依据网站排名或一般经验，还需经过一番合理的验证。
英文摘要：	Since the twenty-first century, with the popularization of the Internet and mobile networks, online stock comments gradually become the main way of expressing opinions by the analysts, and blogging platforms are always preferred by the stock analysts. Some bloggers who mainly publish the stock comments are very popular among the shareholders, and their opinions usually have strong effect on the investment strategy of shareholders. People call them “famous stock bloggers”. But, if these bloggers can well predict stock market? Until today, there are few academic research on this area. So this article will focus on it. Sina Blog is established and well-developed for many years, has a lot of active users, which can be seen as the most influential blogging platform in China. In this research, I chose the stock market predictions(2015.3.2-2015.8.31) from the top 50 popular stock bloggers of sina blog as the sample data, and did validation of these stock bloggers’ predictive ability. The results reveal that the famous stock bloggers as a group has the ability of predicting stock market to a certain extent, and they can make better predictions in the downtrend. But some of the famous stock bloggers are unworthy of the title, their predictive ability is incongruous with their reputation. Then, I analyzed if the career background, years of opening blog and profit factors are relevant to the famous stock bloggers’ predictive ability. The results reveal that the career background and the profit factors are not relevant to their predictive ability, but the famous stock bloggers group open blog after 2008 can make more accurate predictions. In General, the famous stock bloggers’ investment advice has a certain reference value, but if you want to choose an investment adviser from them, it is unwise to refer to the website's ranking list or making choice by your experience, a reasonable verification is necessary.
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