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论文编号：	8542
作者编号：	2120142422
上传时间：	2016/6/17 15:54:44
中文题目：	内部控制缺陷与管理层业绩预告关系实证研究
英文题目：	An Empirical Research on Relationship between Internal Control Deficiency and Management Earnings Forecast
指导老师：	程新生
中文关键字：	管理层业绩预告；内部控制；内部控制缺陷
英文关键字：	Management Earnings Forecast；Internal Control；Internal Control Deficiency
中文摘要：	2002年，美国《萨班斯法案》（简称SOX法案）的颁布在国际资本市场上引起了巨大反响。我国财政部、证监会等五部委在2008年颁布了《企业内部控制基本规范》，要求上市公司对自身内部控制的有效性进行自我评价，披露年度自我评价报告，同时可聘请会计师事务所对内部控制的有效性进行审计。 盈利预测信息作为一种预测性信息，其财务报告使用者利用信息风险也是显而易见的。盈利预测信息质量取决于预测的准确性和披露的真实客观性。从这个方面来看盈利预测信息是一把双刃剑：预测准确并真实客观地披露可以使广大信息使用者受益，预测失实或有选择性地披露甚至欺骗性地披露则会误导信息使用者,进而影响信息使用者对公司的评价和投资决策。可见，管理层有动机披露较为详细的、准确度较高的盈利预测信息。 本文针对我国上市公司内部控制缺陷的存在和严重程度对盈余预测精度和准确度的影响进行研究。研究选取2013-2014年沪深两市所有A股上市公司为样本，研究发现，在控制了盈余管理、管理层披露动机等因素后，存在内部控制缺陷的公司，管理层业绩预告的精度较低、准确性较差；存在重大内控缺陷的企业，管理层业绩预告的准确性较差。但研究未发现内部控制缺陷的严重程度对管理层业绩预告精度的显著影响。 本文的研究成果不仅能为内部控制缺陷经济后果的相关研究提供新的观点，而且检验了内部控制缺陷对管理层盈余预测的具体影响，有利于进一步明确影响管理层预测的因素，为提高管理层预测质量、降低资本市场风险、促进资本市场健康发展提供了经验证据，也为政府部门加强内部控制建设提供了理论支持；其次，本文从管理层盈余预测精度和准确性两个角度对管理层预测特征进行了衡量，为管理层业绩预告特征的衡量提供经验借鉴。
英文摘要：	In 2002, the "Sarbanes Oxley Act" (SOX act) has aroused great repercussions in the international capital market. The Ministry of finance, China Securities Regulatory Commission and other five ministries issued the Basic Norms of Internal Control in 2008, requiring public listed companies implement self evaluation on the effectiveness of internal control, disclose the annual self-evaluation report of internal control, and hire accounting firms to audit the effectiveness of internal control. As a kind of predictive information, management earnings forecast could bring conspicuous information risk for its users. The quality of management earnings forecast depends on both the accuracy of forecasting and the authenticity and objectivity of disclosure. Therefore, earnings forecast information is like “a double-edged sword”: On the one hand, information users could benefit from accurate prediction as well as objective and authentic disclosure; On the other hand, could be misled by inaccurate prediction, selective or even deceptive disclosure, which might have been used in the assessment of firm value and investment decision. Management is motivated to disclose detailed and accurate management earnings forecast. This article examine the effect of internal control deficiency (both existence and severity) on management forecast accuracy and specificity. The article examines the statistics from 2012 to 2014 of all A-share companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The study found that after the control of earnings management, management disclosure motivation and other factors, companies with internal control deficiencies issue less accurate and specific management forecast; Companies with significant internal control deficiencies issue inaccurate management forecast. But the study did not find significant correlation between the severity of internal control deficiencies and management forecast accuracy. The results of the article not only provide a new perspective for the study of economic consequences of internal control deficiencies, but also test internal control deficiency’ s impact on management earnings forecast, which is conducive to further clarify the factors affecting management forecast. This provides both empirical evidence and theoretical support for the necessity that management should improve forecast quality, reduce the risks of capital market and promote the healthy development of capital market, and government should strengthen the construction of internal control. Secondly, this article measures management earnings forecast in both specificity and accuracy, which provide reverence for the measurement of management earnings forecast characters.
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