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论文编号：	8480
作者编号：	2220140349
上传时间：	2016/6/13 15:44:51
中文题目：	光合谷农业生态观光园区项目风险管理研究
英文题目：	Research on project risk management of Guanghegu Eco-agricultural tourism garden
指导老师：	何红锋
中文关键字：	农业生态观光园；风险评估；风险管理
英文关键字：	Eco-agricultural tourism garden；Risk Assessment；Risk Management
中文摘要：	农业生态观光园是以都市居民假日休闲旅游、企事业单位休闲商务会议旅游为主导，以绿色消费为主线，科技示范、高效农业”为愿景的复合功能的生态型农业休闲旅游胜地。农业生态观光园20世纪80年代进入我国，并迅速成长，如今已经被广泛认可，成为城市居民甚为推崇的旅游项目，同时也得到了旅游开发商和政府的高度重视。目前，我国对于农业生态观光园工程的项目风险评估研究目前尚很少。对农业观光园区项目的风险管理研究既是实现我市农业和农村可持续发展的客观要求。同时也有利于完善天津现代农业体系，促进人民增收，推动区域经济快速发展。从理论出发，通过对建设光合谷农业生态观光园区项目风险的探讨、分析，识别出在光合谷农业生态观光园区整体建设过程中可能会遇到的全部风险，找出导致这些风险的因素，风险可能发生的时间，这些风险可能导致的后果和造成的损失并在此基础上逐个对单一风险进行风险度量，建立风险指标体系，最后针对不同的风险给出相应的科学的风险的措施及对策，希望为农业生态观光园工程项目风险管理方面提供一个可实际运用的方法，对同类型工程项目的风险管理具备一定的参考作用。本文以天津市光合谷农业生态观光园区为例，对项目在规划和实施过程中可能遇到的风险进行分析研究。通过对案例研究和对大量来源可靠的信息进行分析，找出影响农业生态观光园工程项目风险管理目标实现的风险因素，识别风险源、风险产生原因。文章中运用专家调查法，认真分析了观光园工程项目中的运营管理风险、经济风险、技术风险、环境风险以及社会风险，确定了项目存在的风险源，确定风险评价指标因素后并对其进行度量，再根据财务效益分析的依据和营业收入、成本测算进行盈利能力分析得出财务分析结论，之后为了得到光合谷农业生态观光园工程项目的综合评估结果，文中建立了光合谷农业生态观光园工程项目风险评价指标体系各指标权重集（Ｋ），并采用多级模糊评价方法对项目进行综合风险评估。最终运用模糊综合评判技术的方法得出光合谷农业生态观光园项目在项目风险评价指标体系上的综合表现较良好，该项目综合风险处于较低水平的结论。在文章的结尾部分，针对光合谷农业观光项目风险应对措施，给出几点建议：在项目的决策阶段，对接受风险所带来的效益和直接或者间接蒙受的损失之间的比较后决策项目的进行与否，当项目继续则对项目风险的监控就是有必要的；在项目建设阶段，必须要根据风险所带来的威胁程度，对风险进行及时的监控，以保证项目不会因为没有预测到的突发风险，而不能顺利施工；当项目建设已经竣工，投入到项目的正常运行当中时，具有持续性的风险监控成为了日常性的工作。农业生态观光园建设期工程项目管理方要保证风险监测必须在项目整个生命周期中得到落实。可以建立农业生态观光园工程项目的风险预警系统，提高风险监测效率，保证农业生态观光园工程项目风险管理工作的有效性。通过分析天津市光合谷农业生态观光园区项目，总结前人工作以及本人调查研究相结合对农业观光园区项目工程风险管理进行了实证研究，验证了通过风险规避、风险自留、风险转移、风险分散等手段，可使农业生态观光园工程项目风险可以得到减轻和规避。如果项目的建设在具体操作上合理可行，并且符合国家政策，与人民的利益不相冲突。建设单位可以按照总体规划，依据基本建设程序分步实施，以保障项目的顺利实施建成。
英文摘要：	Eco-agricultural tourism garden is an ecological agricultural resort which have Compound function. It serves the urban residents and enterprises and institutions for leisure, meetings, travel. Its goal is to build natural, high-tech agricultural park. In the 1980s，Eco-agricultural tourism garden start to enter our country, and rapid growth. Now it has been widely recognized, and become the touted tourism projects. At the same time it also get the developers and the government's attention. At present, the risk assessment research for eco-agricultural tourism garden engineering project is few. The risk management research for Guanghegu Eco-agricultural tourism garden project can help the industry development. As well as to promote people's increasing income, promote the development of the economy. Through the analysis of project risk ,we can identify all risks in the process of the whole project，and find out the cause of these risk factors。We can find out the time of the risk occurrence, the consequences of the risk, and the losses. Finally, we measure risk and give the corresponding measures and countermeasures. I hope that I can provide a practical method through my research，and this paper can provide certain reference function for the same type project risk management researchs. Taking tianjin Guanghegu photosynthetic valley organic farming culture demonstration project as an example, the project may encounter in the process of planning and implementation of risk analysis. Through case study and analysis of a large number of sources of reliable information, affecting agricultural ecological sightseeing garden, the project risk management goal of the risk factors, identification of risk source, risk causes. Using expert investigation method, this paper carefully analyses the agricultural ecological sightseeing park, operation management of engineering project risk, economic risk, technology risk, environmental risk and social risk, determine the project risk source of the existence of factors which determine the risk evaluation index and its measurement, according to the financial benefit analysis on the basis of analyzing profitability and revenue, cost estimates financial analysis conclusion, in order to get after agricultural ecological sightseeing park, the comprehensive evaluation results of the project, this paper established Guanghegu region agricultural ecological sightseeing park project risk evaluation index system of the index weight set (K), and USES the multistage fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for project risk assessment. Finally by using the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation technology of photosynthesis valley agricultural ecological sightseeing garden project on the project risk evaluation index system of comprehensive performance is good, the conclusion of the project comprehensive risk at a lower level. In the end of the article, in view of Guanghegu agriculture sightseeing project risk response, some Suggestions are given: in view of the agricultural ecological sightseeing park this kind of project, the project decision-making stage, the benefits brought by accepting risk and direct or indirect losses after the comparison between decision-making project for it or not, as the project continues in the project risk monitoring is necessary; In the project construction phase, must according to the risk degree of the threat posed by to timely monitoring of risk, the project will not be ensured because of the risk of a sudden, not smooth construction; When the projects have been completed, continuous risk monitoring has become daily work. Agricultural ecological sightseeing garden construction engineering project management to ensure the risk monitoring must be implemented in the whole project life cycle. Project risk early warning system can be set up region agricultural ecological sightseeing garden for improving the efficiency of risk monitoring. Agricultural ecological sightseeing garden the effectiveness of project risk management would be ensured. This paper through the analysis of photosynthetic valley organic farming culture demonstration garden project, combination of summarizing predecessors' work, and I study agriculture sightseeing garden project risk management has carried on the empirical research, verified by risk avoidance, risk retention, risk transfer and risk diversification will make the risk of the agricultural ecological sightseeing garden project reduced and avoided.
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