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论文编号：	8351
作者编号：	1120120786
上传时间：	2016/6/7 23:28:33
中文题目：	基于城市承载力的大型工程项目后评价模型与方法研究
英文题目：	Study on the Ex-post Evaluation Model and Method of Large-scale Construction Project Based on Carrying Capacity of Cities
指导老师：	戚安邦教授
中文关键字：	项目后评价；城市承载力；大型工程项目；城市规划
英文关键字：	ex-post project evaluation; carrying capacity of city; large-scale construction project; city planning
中文摘要：	长期以来，我国大型工程项目的建设更多关注经济效益，而对环境保护、减少资源耗费等关注不够。多年的粗放式发展，各类大型工程项目对我国城市环境造成了较为严重的破坏，浪费了过多的资源。近年来频繁发生的交通拥堵、雾霾天气、生态破坏、资源紧缺等问题，给人们敲响了警钟。城市发展中出现的种种问题大都是由于城市建设项目规划或建设过程的不合理导致的，为保持城市的可持续发展，必须对其中的影响因素进行识别，并加以控制。 大型工程项目的开发必须与人类的发展相协调，与经济、社会和生态环境的承载力相协调。国家大力推进大项目带动战略以来，大量重点投资项目、大型工程项目等建设络绎不绝，这些项目的实施效果、对城市承载力的影响作用与影响程度等，都是目前大型工程项目决策与管理、城市规划与管理中需要明确的问题。目前有关大型工程项目与城市承载力的关系研究、大型工程项目后评价研究仍比较少，我国现有的评价在理论基础、指标体系、模型与方法上都无法满足现在基于城市承载力的大型工程项目后评价的要求。因此，本文以项目后评价理论、城市承载力理论与城市可持续发展理论为基础，以大型工程项目与城市承载力为研究对象开展研究，试图在丰富和发展项目后评价理论的同时，为大型工程项目决策和城市规划等实践运作提供指导。本文主要聚焦于：探讨现代城市发展战略下基于城市承载力的大型工程项目后评价的构成维度；构建大型工程项目与城市承载力的配置关系模型、基于城市承载力的大型工程项目后评价模型；通过实证研究对大型工程项目与城市承载力的配置关系、影响作用、影响程度等进行分析。 本文综合运用案例研究法、专家访谈法、问卷调查法、规范研究法和统计分析法等多种方法对研究问题进行探讨。在构建大型工程项目与城市承载力的配置关系模型、评价指标体系和评价理论模型时，使用了案例研究法、专家访谈法和规范研究法；在检验评价指标体系时，使用了问卷调查法和统计分析法；在对评价模型进行验证时，使用了规范研究法和统计分析法。 本文的研究结论主要包括：（1）基于城市承载力的大型工程项目后评价可从城市经济承载力、城市社会承载力和城市生态承载力三个维度开展；（2）大型工程项目的建设和运行对城市的经济承载力、社会承载力、生态承载力等变量均有显著的正向影响，大型工程项目是提升城市承载力的重要途径；（3）大型工程项目对城市承载力各维度的影响程度不同，对城市经济承载力提升的正向影响作用最大，其次是城市社会承载力，对城市生态承载力的影响作用最小；（4）大型工程项目的决策要与城市承载力相协调，不仅要考虑经济效率目标还要考虑社会公平目标，以及维护生态平衡目标，不能顾此失彼。 通过本文的研究，主要形成以下四个方面的创新点：（1）构建了基于城市承载力的大型工程项目后评价指标体系，包含城市经济承载力、城市社会承载力和城市生态承载力三项一级评价指标和23项具体评价指标，这是对大型工程项目后评价标准的补充；（2）构建了大型工程项目与城市承载力的配置关系模型，这在分析大型工程项目与城市承载力的关系方面是一个进步；（3）构建了基于城市承载力的大型工程项目后评价模型，这在大型工程项目后评价定量研究中是一个推进；（4）提出了大型工程项目决策优化与城市规划优化的方法，具有重要实践指导意义。
英文摘要：	For a long time, the construction of large-scale construction projects in our country pay more attention on the economic benefits, but pay insufficient attention on the environmental protection, reduce waste of resources and so on. Because of years of extensive development, various types of large-scale construction projects has caused considerable damage on our environment and consumed too many resources. In recent years, traffic congestion, toxic haze, ecological destruction, resource shortage and other problems occur more and more frequently, which give people a wake-up call. All sorts of problems in the urban development mostly due to unreasonable urban construction project planning and construction process, in order to maintain the city’s sustainable development, we must identify the influencing factors, and control them. The development of large-scale construction projects must be coordinated with the development of human, the carrying capacity of the economic, social and ecological environment. As the implementation of the big project strategy, there are many key investment projects and large-scale construction object completed. The benefit of the projects, the influence degree on the carrying capacity of cities should not only be cleared in the large-scale construction projects decision and management, but also in the urban planning and management. The researches on the relationship between large-scale construction projects and carrying capacity of cities, the ex-post evaluation of large-scale construction projects are still relatively shortage. The evaluation theory, evaluation index system, evaluation model and evaluation method are all unable to meet the requirements of ex-post evaluation of large-scale construction projects according to carrying capacity of cities. Thus, based on the project ex-post evaluation theory, the carrying capacity of cities theory, and the urban sustainable development theory, it takes large-scale construction projects and carrying capacity of cities as research objects, in order to develop the project ex-post evaluation theory, and give guide for large-scale construction projects’ decision-making and urban planning. It mainly focuses on: firstly, discussing the ex-post evaluation dimension of large-scale construction projects according to carrying capacity of cities; secondly, constructing the configuration relationship model between large-scale construction projects and carrying capacity of cities; thirdly, constructing the ex-post evaluation model of large-scale construction projects according to carrying capacity of cities; finally, conducting an empirical analysis. It uses many methods comprehensively in this paper, such as literature study, case study, expert interview, questionnaire survey method, specification research method and statistical analysis method and so on. It uses literature study, case study, expert interview, and specification research method in the process of configuration relationship model construction, uses questionnaire survey method and statistical analysis method in the process of evaluation index system test, uses specification research method and statistical analysis method in the process of evaluation model validation. The main conclusions of this study include: (1) the ex-post evaluation of large-scale construction projects according to carrying capacity of cities can be executed from three dimensions as economic carrying capacity, society carrying capacity, and ecological carrying capacity; (2) the construction and operation of large-scale construction projects have a significant positive effect on the carrying capacity promotion of cities including all the three dimensions, large-scale construction projects play a very important role in carrying capacity promotion of cities; (3) the increased range of every dimension is different, the increase of economic carrying capacity is the most obvious; the second is society carrying capacity, and the third is ecological carrying capacity; (4) large-scale construction projects decision-making should be coordinated with carrying capacity of cities, considering the economic efficiency target, the social justice target and the ecological balance target. It mainly forms four aspects of innovation as follows: (1) constructing the ex-post evaluation index system of large-scale construction projects according to carrying capacity of cities, which contains 23 specific evaluation indicators distributing in economic carrying capacity, society carrying capacity, and ecological carrying capacity. It is complementary to the ex-post evaluation criteria of large-scale construction projects. (2) constructing the configuration relationships model between large-scale construction projects and carrying capacity of cities, it is a great progress in the research on the relationships. (3) constructing the ex-post evaluation model of large-scale construction projects according to carrying capacity of cities, it is a great progress in the quantitative research on ex-post evaluation of large-scale construction projects. (4) proposing the optimization methods of large-scale construction projects decision-making and urban planning, it is very important for practice.
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