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论文编号：	8349
作者编号：	1120130784
上传时间：	2016/6/7 23:01:01
中文题目：	突发公共事件中舆情传播的成长机理与应急决策研究
英文题目：	Research on Growth Mechanism and Emergency Decision-making of Public Opinion Propagation in Public Emergency
指导老师：	李勇建
中文关键字：	突发公共事件；舆情传播；连锁反应；成长机理；应急决策
英文关键字：	Public Emergency; Public Opinion Propagation; Chain Reaction; Growth Mechanism; Emergency Decision-making
中文摘要：	突发公共事件在给人类带来经济损失甚至人员伤亡的同时，往往还会发生连锁反应，触发一系列次生、衍生事件。舆情传播正是其中一种衍生事件，特指公众态度、情绪和观点等的扩散，不仅可能会加大其前导突发公共事件的应急管理难度，还可能会诱发新的社会安全事件，影响社会稳定。伴随新媒介技术的快速发展，舆情传播的这种双重作用体现得更加明显，其角色的重要性也得以大幅增强。在此背景下，本论文运用了超图与超网络、演化博弈论、不确定条件下的决策理论等理论与方法，并综合采用了理论与案例相结合、机制设计与数理模型相结合、实证与仿真相结合、静态与动态相结合的研究思路，着重研究了突发公共事件中舆情传播的成长机理（形成机制与形成结构、演进机理与演进动力学基础、演进路径与演进规律）与应急决策（应急决策范式及其动态适应性、应急预案的评估方法与启动策略）。具体内容如下：（一）基于突发公共事件连锁反应的舆情传播形成机制首先将突发事件的结构化描述框架应用于突发公共事件，并据此进行了多案例研究，得到了突发公共事件的连锁反应机制。然后，运用超图构建了事件连锁反应超网络，并得到了其投影网络模型。进一步，分析了模型的性质和介绍了模型的应用。该机制和模型正是初步表征了舆情传播的形成源泉和形成原因。在此基础上，从多案例研究入手研究了模型中舆情传播的形成机制和形成结构。研究表明：突发公共事件的关键属性、环境属性与舆情传播的环境属性间的共有关系是舆情传播形成的核心决定因素；舆情传播的形成结构既可能是“一对一”型，也可能是“多对一”型，需要视具体的案例而定；针对舆情传播的形成过程，预警和处置工作的重点应该放在对舆情传播形成结构的探索及对形成结构中活跃属性的有效识别、及时引导和控制等方面。（二）舆情传播的演进机理与演进动力学分析首先通过多案例研究识别了舆情传播演进中的相关参与者，进而从舆情传播结构化描述中的属性层次分析了舆情传播的演进机理，并研究了参与者决策行为的集合描述框架及演进机理中参与者间博弈关系的规范表达。基于此，运用演化博弈论与期望值理论分别对公众间及公众与政府部门间博弈关系的动态演化均衡进行了研究。进一步，通过案例研究验证了理论结果的有效性，并考查了参与者的心理认知差异对博弈均衡性的影响。研究表明：舆情传播事件得以演进的根本原因在于公众间及公众与政府部门间的持续性博弈；参与者间博弈关系的演化均衡状态及其约束条件刻画了舆情传播演进的动力学基础和演进条件；中央政府可通过调控政府部门和社会公众的心理满足系数来改变舆情传播的演进方向；政府部门在干涉舆情传播的演进时应该探寻最佳时机。（三）考虑参与者间行为关系的舆情传播演进规律首先通过多案例研究识别了舆情传播的演进阶段，分析了公众在舆情传播演进中扮演的不同角色，研究了各类公众间的行为转化及其与政府干预行为间的关系。然后，构建了舆情传播演进模型，分析了模型的平衡点和稳定性，得到了舆情传播的演进路径和演进规律及政府所应选择的管控方向。最后，通过案例分析验证了理论研究的有效性，并考查了政府的不同干预行为对舆情传播演进路径和各类公众间行为转化的影响规律。研究表明：突发公共事件中舆情传播演进过程的实质是政府干预下公众间的行为转化历程，表现在具有不同传播状态的公众的数量变化；平衡点存在定理与稳定性定理反映了舆情传播的演进路径和演进规律；与无政府干预的基础情景相比，有政府干预的情景可改变各类公众数量比例的演进路径和影响不同类型公众间的行为转化。（四）舆情传播成长中应急决策范式及其动态适应性首先借助参与者的决策行为集合描述框架，通过多案例研究提取了框架中各组成要素的具体形式，给出了舆情传播成长中的应急决策范式。进一步，从舆情传播结构化描述中的属性层次和应急决策集合描述中的组成要素层次，设计了舆情传播和应急决策的相互作用机制，并构造了相应的相互作用模型。基于此，引入演化博弈论与期望效用理论得到了模型的运行模式和运行规律，并据此探索了应急决策的动态适应性。最后，通过案例研究验证理论研究的有效性，并考查了参与者的偏好（目标偏好、公平偏好）对模型运行模式和运行规律及应急决策动态适应性的影响。研究表明：平衡点存在定理与稳定性定理反映了相互作用模型的运行模式和运行规律及应急决策的动态适应性；政府部门应该增强自身与公众对社会效益目标及其公平心理的偏好行为，提高其对经济效益目标及其公平心理的厌恶程度；政府部门在确定最优应急预案时，不要过分追求所投入的成本最小化，而应该首要控制舆情传播的成长。（五）舆情传播成长中应急预案评估方法与启动策略首先借助舆情传播与应急决策的相互作用机制，梳理了应急决策的集合组成要素与应急预案的关系，进而刻画了应急预案对舆情传播成长状态的干预机制，给出了干预效果的评估边界。进一步，研究了干预效果在具有不同性质的舆情传播成长中的表现形式，给出了干预效果的模型化表达；基于此，采用了评估舆情传播成长中状态情景属性的角度和两两比较备选预案的思路，引入累积前景理论构造了应急预案的评估方法与启动策略。最后，以案例研究介绍了评估方法与启动策略的应用，验证了理论研究的有效性。研究表明：应急预案对舆情传播成长状态情景的干预效果体现在情景中关键属性与危害评估属性的取值变动；干预效果在具有不同性质的舆情传播成长中存在两种表现形式；应急预案的评估方法和启动策略能在既考虑到情景危害又考虑到情景演变的前提下，从舆情传播成长中状态情景属性层次得到应急预案的优劣次序。总结以上内容，可将本论文的主要研究特色和创新之处概括为如下四个方面：第一，以突发公共事件的连锁反应机制刻画和模型构造为切入点来研究舆情传播的形成机制和形成结构；第二，给出了舆情传播与应急决策的规范化描述，并从二者在组成要素层次的相互作用关系研究入手探索了应急决策的动态适应性；第三，在应急预案的评估与启动问题研究中，既考虑了舆情传播成长状态情景的危害又考虑了情景的演变；第四，在舆情传播的演进机理和演进动力学、演进路径和演进规律、应急决策的动态适应性、应急预案的评估与启动等问题的研究中都不同程度的刻画和融入了参与者的心理和行为特征。
英文摘要：	Public emergency not only can bring about economic losses and casualties to human beings, but also can give rise to a chain reaction, and thus a series of secondary and derivative events can be triggered. Public opinion propagation is just one of the derivative events, it refers to the spread of attitude, mood and viewpoint of the public, and it not only may increase the difficulty of emergency management for its preceding public emergency, but also may cause some new social security events, thereby the social stability can be affected. Along with the rapid development of new media technology, such dual functions of public opinion propagation become more obvious than before, and the importance of its role also has been significantly enhanced. Just under such backgrounds, the methods of hypergraph and hypernetwork, evolutionary game theory, and decision theory under uncertainty, as well as the research ideas including the combination of theory and case, the combination of mechanism design and mathematical modeling, the combination of empirical study and simulation, and the combination of static analysis and dynamic analysis are taken to study the growth mechanism (includes the formation mechanism and formation structure, the evolutionary mechanism and dynamical foundation of evolution, the evolutionary path and evolutionary law) and the emergency decision-making (includes the paradigm and dynamic adaptability of emergency decision-making, the evaluation method and starting strategy of the emergency plans) of public opinion propagation in public emergency. To be specific, the main contents of this thesis can be summarized as follows: (1) Formation mechanism of public opinion propagation based on the chain reaction of public emergency Firstly, the structural description framework of emergency is applied to public emergency, and the chain reaction mechanism of public emergency is obtained by a multi-case study. Then, a chain reaction hypernetwork and its projection network model are established with hypergraph. Further, the properties and application of the model are introduced and analyzed, respectively. The above mechanism and model just characterize the formation source and formation reason of public opinion propagation in a preliminary manner. On the basis of that, the formation mechanism and formation structure of public opinion propagation are studied proceeding from a multi-case study. The studies find that the common relationship between key attributes, environmental attributes of public emergency and environmental attributes of public opinion propagation is the most crucial determinant. In terms of the specific cases, the formation structure of public opinion propagation not only can be a “one to one” type, but also can be a “many to one” type. For the formation process of public opinion propagation, the early warning and disposal work should focus on exploring the formation structure of public opinion propagation as well as identifying, guiding and controlling the active attributes in the formation structure. (2) Evolutionary mechanism and evolutionary dynamics analysis of public opinion propagation Firstly, the relevant participants in the evolution of public opinion propagation are identified by means of a multi-case study. Then, the perspective of attributes in structural description of public opinion propagation is taken to analyze the evolutionary mechanism of public opinion propagation, and to study the set description framework of the participants’ decision-making behavior as well as the normative expression of game relationship in the evolutionary mechanism. On this basis, by using evolutionary game theory and expected value theory, the dynamic evolution equilibria of game relationships between the public as well as between the public and the government departments are studied, respectively. Further, a case is adopted to verify the validity of the theoretical results, and to examine the impact of the participants’ cognitive differences on game equilibrium. The results show that the basic reason with respect to evolution of public opinion propagation is the persistent game relationships between the public as well as between the public and the government departments. The evolutionary equilibrium state and its constraints of game relationship between the participants depict the dynamical foundation and evolutionary conditions for evolution of public opinion propagation. The central government can change the evolutionary direction of public opinion propagation through regulating psychological satisfaction coefficient. When the government departments intervene in the evolution of public opinion propagation, they are supposed to search the best opportunity in advance. (3) Evolutionary law of public opinion propagation with the consideration of behavioral relationship between the participants Firstly, a multi-case study is conducted to identify the evolutionary stages of public opinion propagation, to analyze the different roles the public play and their behavioral transformation, and to study the connection between the behavioral transformation and the government intervention. Then, the behavioral relationship between the participants is taken into account to establish the evolutionary model of public opinion propagation, to analyze the equilibrium point and its stability, and to obtain the evolutionary path and evolutionary law of public opinion propagation as well as the control direction the government should choose. Finally, a case is adopted to verify the validity of the theoretical results, and to examine the impact of the government’ different intervention behaviors on the evolutionary path of public opinion propagation and the behavioral transformation between the public. The studies find that the essence of the evolutionary process of public opinion propagation in public emergency is the behavioral transformation process between the public under the government intervention, and this can be reflected by quantity changes of the public with different propagation states. The equilibrium point theorem and the stability theorem demonstrate the evolutionary path and evolutionary law of public opinion propagation. As compared to the basic scenario without government intervention, other scenarios with government intervention can alter the quantity proportion evolutionary path of the public with different roles and can affect the behavioral transformation between the public with different roles. (4) Paradigm and dynamic adaptability of emergency decision-making in the growth of public opinion propagation Firstly, the paradigm of emergency decision-making in the growth of public opinion propagation is obtained through a multi-case study in conjunction with the set description framework of the participants’ decision-making behaviors. Further, the perspective of attributes in structural description of public opinion propagation and the perspective of components in set description of emergency decision-making are taken to design the interaction mechanism between public opinion propagation and emergency decision-making, and to construct the corresponding interaction model. On this basis, by using evolutionary game theory and expected utility theory, the running mode and running law are derived and the dynamic adaptability of emergency decision-making are also studied. Finally, a case is adopted to verify the validity of the theoretical results, and to examine the impact of the preference (includes target preference and fairness preference) of the participants on the running mode and running law of the model as well as the dynamic adaptability of emergency decision-making. The studies find that the equilibrium point theorem and the stability theorem demonstrate the running mode and running law of the interaction model as well as the dynamic adaptability of emergency decision-making. The government departments ought to strengthen the preferential behavior of themselves and the public to pursue target and fair psychology of social benefit, and ought to increase the aversion degree to target and fair psychology of economic benefit. When determining the optimal emergency plan, the government departments cannot attach undue importance to their cost minimization, but should consider how to control the growth of public opinion propagation more effectively as their primary target. (5) Evaluation method and starting strategy of the emergency plans in the growth of public opinion propagation Firstly, the connection between set components of emergency decision-making and emergency plan is determined by means of the interaction mechanism between public opinion propagation and emergency decision-making. Then, the intervention mechanism of emergency plan to the growth of public opinion propagation is described, and the evaluation boundary of intervention effect is also analyzed. Further, the different display forms of the intervention effect in the growth of public opinion propagation with different characteristics are studied, and their modeling expressions are also put forward. On this basis, the manner of comparing every two emergency plans and the cumulative prospect theory are applied to present evaluation method and starting strategy of the emergency plans from the perspective of evaluating scenario attributes in the growth of public opinion propagation. Finally, a case is adopted to introduce the application and to verify the validity of the theoretical results. The studies find that the intervention effect of emergency plan to the growth scenarios of public opinion propagation can be reflected by the variation in the value of key attributes and hazard evaluation attributes. There are two kinds of display forms with regard to intervention effect. Considering intervention targets of scenario hazard and scenario evolvement, the evaluation method and starting strategy of emergency plans can rank the emergency plans from the perspective of scenario attributes in the growth of public opinion propagation. To sum up the above contents, the research characteristics and innovation points of this thesis can be summarized in the following four aspects. Firstly, the mechanism description and model formation for chain reaction of public emergency are adopted as the breakthrough points to study the formation mechanism and formation structure of public opinion propagation. Secondly, the normative description of public opinion propagation and emergency decision-making is provided, respectively. On this basis, the dynamic adaptability of emergency decision-making is explored by starting with the interaction relationship between public opinion propagation and emergency decision-making at the components level. Thirdly, both the scenario hazard and scenario evolvement in the growth of public opinion propagation are taken into account to study the evaluation and starting problems of emergency plans. Fourthly, the psychological and behavioral characteristics of the participants are depicted and integrated into the research on evolutionary mechanism and evolutionary dynamics, evolutionary path and evolutionary law, dynamic adaptability of emergency decision-making as well as evaluation and starting of emergency plans with respect to public opinion propagation in different degrees.
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