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论文编号：	8304
作者编号：	2220120259
上传时间：	2016/6/7 14:25:29
中文题目：	天津碱厂丁辛醇二期项目风险管理研究
英文题目：	The study on risk management of Tianjin Soda Plant Butanol and 2-EH Phase II Project
指导老师：	李季
中文关键字：	石油化工；丁辛醇；项目；风险管理
英文关键字：	petrochemical;Butanol and 2-EH;project;risk management
中文摘要：	天津碱厂丁辛醇二期项目是企业搬迁改造一期项目投产后实施的二期工程项目。搬迁改造项目中的丁辛醇一期项目在建设过程中和装置投产后出现了很多问题，例如投资超出预算、建设工期延长、施工质量存在问题、装置运行初期不稳定等。企业在建设丁辛醇二期项目时，总结一期项目的经验教训，加强项目的风险管理，尽可能地使项目的效益最大化。 作为典型的石油化工项目，本项目具有较大的风险性。项目的投资大、周期长，生产过程涉及的原料、产品和中间产品都属于易燃易爆有毒有害的物质。相比一期项目，丁辛醇二期项目的工期大幅缩短，对项目的质量也提出更高的要求。同时，由于化工行业生产事故频发，国家对化工行业也制定了更为严格的安全环保标准。因此，用成熟的项目风险管理理论对天津碱厂丁辛醇二期项目进行全面的风险管理研究是非常有必要的。 本论文首先对项目风险管理理论进行了系统研究，接着对石油化工项目的特点和风险因素进行了分析。然后介绍了天津碱厂丁辛醇二期项目的概况，对项目的独特性进行了分析。在此基础上综合应用系统分解法、流程图法、头脑风暴法和HAZOP法对项目的主要风险进行识别，按照设计阶段、施工阶段和投料试生产阶段对项目风险进行分类，采用专家法、风险矩阵分析法和HAZOP法对风险进行度量。最后结合项目的实际情况制定了相应的风险应对措施，以降低风险发生的概率，减少项目的损失。
英文摘要：	The construction of Tianjin Soda Plant Butanol and 2-EH Phase II project is based on the production of the Phase I project for the Relocation and Transformation project of the plant. There are lots of problems both in the construction and after the production, like the investment over budget, construction period behind the schedule, insufficient construction quality and instability for the early operation, etc. Given that, it is inevitable to draw lessons from the Phase I project when the Phase II project is under the construction. Furthermore, strengthening risk management of the project to maximize the economic returns for the enterprise has been added. The Phase II project, as a typical petrochemical one, takes big risks. The project have big investment and long period. the production process involves the raw material, the product and the intermediate product all belong to the inflammable and explosive toxic and harmful substance. Compared to the Phase I project, the Phase II project construction period significantly reduced, the project quality are also put forward higher requirement. At the same time, due to the frequent production accidents in the chemical industry, the state has also made more stringent safety and environmental standards for the chemical industry. Therefore, it is necessary for the Tianjin Soda Plant Butanol and 2-EH Phase II project to study risk management thoroughly by means of the mature theory for the project risk management. To start with, this thesis makes a systemic study on the project risk management, then, analyzes the nature and risk factors of the petrochemical projects. This thesis subsequently introduces the profile of the Tianjin Soda Plant Butanol and 2-EH Phase II project, and identifies the major risks of the project through fully applying systemic decomposition method, flow diagram method, brainstorming approach and HAZOP based on the analysis of the uniqueness of the case. Moreover, the project risks are not only classified in this thesis according to the different phases, like engineering design phase, construction period and commissioning operation, but also assessed in terms of the expert opinion, risk matrix method and HAZOP. Finally, this thesis works out the measures against the risks with the actual project to mitigate the excessive risk-taking so that the reduced loss for the project will be realized.
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