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论文编号：	804
作者编号：	2220060674
上传时间：	2008/6/25 9:18:55
中文题目：	BOT模式下的公用事业项目风险管
英文题目：	The study of project risk of p
指导老师：	焦媛媛
中文关键字：	BOT模式 公用事业项目 风险识<
英文关键字：	BOT pattern Publice utilities
中文摘要：	摘 要 BOT项目实施的日益增多，采用这种投融资方式建设的项目在社会上发挥的作用也越来越大，我国从上个世纪80年代起就开始了基础设施领域的改革，从改革提供公共产品与服务企业的现代企业管理制度到改革公共产品与服务的价格体系与质量标准；从引入市场竞争机制到鼓励民间资本参与竞争；从政府供给到政府监督；BOT项目的顺利实施具有重大的经济和社会意义，因此实施过程中的风险问题成为项目参与方所共同关心的核心问题。 任何BOT项目都存在着风险，然而如何有效的去评价风险，则是一个有待解决的现实问题。本文在分析公用事业项目以及BOT模式的特征的基础上：分析了BOT模式下公用事业项目风险识别的特点，识别了BOT模式的公用事业项目风险因素，包括环境风险、经济风险、技术风险、市场风险、管理风险，但当BOT模式的实现方式发生变化时，参与方面临的风险因素会发生变化。 本论文通过对BOT项目风险的分析与评价，构建了一个基于公用事业项目风险决策的BOT项目风险评价体系。目的在于寻求度量BOT模式下公用事业项目风险的有效方法，以期对项目的风险决策、管理起到一定的借鉴作用。通过查阅国内外大量相关资料，并在大量的数据采集及实例调研的基础上，基于BOT模式下公用事业项目主要参与方来确定、划分风险因素，将复杂的BOT风险分解为简单易断的风险因素，构建了BOT模式下公用事业项目风险评价指标体系。运用AHP、模糊数学等方法建立了一个综合评判的BOT模式下公用事业项目风险评价模型，通过该模型解决了BOT模式下公用事业项目风险评价问题。本文综合了国内外BOT模式下公用事业项目风险分担情况，给出了一张BOT模式下公用事业项目风险分配表。另外，我们也可以通过增加项目风险管理能力、风险应对或承受能力、项目管理成员素质来减免风险因素。 本文最后以天津市TJ高速公路项目为应用实例，说明了本文的研究以及理论方法具有现实意义。
英文摘要：	Abstract Since increased number of implement of BOT project, the social effect which arising from this kind of financial investment menthod has also improved. China has being reformed the infrastructure since 1980s, from reforming the modern management system of enterprises that offer public products and service to the pricing system and quality criterion of public products and service; from introducing to the competition mechanism of the market to encouraging private’s capital participate in; from the government supplying to supervising; The succeed in the implement of BOT project has extremely important social and economic meaning, therefore the risks during the implement procedure have became to the core of all problems that concerned by all participators. Any BOT project were risky, therefore how to efficiently evaluate the risks, is a realistic problem need to be solved. On the base of the analysis of public utilities and the character of BOT pattern, this assignment has analysed the character of public utilities risk recognition and risk factors which include enviromental risk, ecomonic risk, technical risk, market risk and managerial risk. However, since the change of BOT implement method, the risk factors that BOT participator faced will also be changed coincidently. Through the analysis and evaluation of BOT project’s risks, this assignment established a risk evaluation system, which in accordance with the risk strategy of public utilities. The purpose of this assignment was tring to find a efficent method for the measurement of risk, which might be helpful to the risk decision-making and management of public utilities. According to the reading of relevant information and research of practical example, the risk evaluation system can be established basic on the identification and compartment of risk factors which decided by the major participator of project, thus the complicated BOT risks have been simplified to make it easier to identify. Base on the strengths and weaknesses of recent risk evaluation method, this assignment established a intergrated risk evaluation model by using AHP、the fuzzy mathematics and other theories. And also this model can be used to solve the problem of risk evaluation for the publice utilities under BOT pattern. The assignment presented a list of risk distribution by concluding worldwide public utilities’ risk distribution position. In addition, we can avoid the risks by improving risk management ability, risk response and endure ability and the diathesis of staffs. In conclusion, this assignment was using some one highway as a pratical example to show the realistic meaning of its reaserch result and conceptual method.
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