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论文编号：	7945
作者编号：	2120132913
上传时间：	2015/12/8 21:49:18
中文题目：	天津市地方政府债务风险控制研究
英文题目：	Study on Tianjin’s Local Government Debt Risk Management
指导老师：	李莉
中文关键字：	地方政府；债务；风险控制
英文关键字：	Local government; Debt; Risk management
中文摘要：	随着我国经济体制改革和经济社会发展，城镇化发展加速、基础设施建设需求增大，政府性债务大量积累，尤其是地方政府负债增长较快，债务规模较大，债务风险加剧，对债务管理提出更高要求。为了适应债务管理目标，有效防范和控制债务风险和财政风险，优化债务风险控制方法具有必要性。债务风险控制是公共财政管理和债务管理的重要部分，风险控制的效果会直接影响财政稳定性。目前天津市地方政府债务风险控制还存在监管力度不足、方法缺乏操作性等问题，使得债务风险不能得到有效的控制和管理，债务风险积聚。因此，本文对天津市地方政府债务风险控制进行研究，并提出具有操作性及应用价值的优化方案，为更有效地控制债务风险提供思路，具有理论和现实意义。 本文首先从债务规模、主体、来源等方面介绍了天津市地方政府债务现状，并对债务风险进行评价，然后介绍了天津市地方政府债务风险控制措施，指出风险控制中存在的问题，并对问题成因加以分析。在此基础上，文章提出天津市地方政府债务风险控制优化的原则，进行了必要性分析和可行性分析，制定了具体的优化方案：编制基于权责发生制的地方政府债务报告，完善包括债务情况的绩效考核制度，构建地方政府债务风险预警机制，地方政府债券资产证券化。最后，介绍了债务风险控制优化方案的具体实施案例，通过对案例实施效果的分析评价，证实了优化方案的效果。 本文在优化方案中创新地提出编制基于权责发生制的地方政府债务报告，运用层次分析法和模糊综合评价模型，对天津市地方政府债务风险预警模型进行构建。由于债务风险控制优化方法是基于对天津市政府债务情况、财政情况、经济情况、债务控制情况等方面的综合研究，因而更符合天津市实际情况，这些优化方法不再只局限于理论分析，具有很好的实践性和操作性，实施效果也在实际应用中得到了证实。
英文摘要：	The amount of government related debt has been cumulated rapidly along with the reformation of economic structure and development of social economy. The growing need of local infrastructure construction and urbanization development has particularly pushed local debt in an unprecedented high position. The growing scale and potential risk require more attention on risk management technique. In the reason for achieving liability or debt management goals; effectively preventing and controlling debt risk and financing risk, it is necessary to optimizing risk management method for local debt. Debt risk management is an important part of both local debt and public finance management. The effectiveness of risk management method would directly affect the stability of public finance. Some of the current troubles lying in local government risk management method are government regulation insufficient and poor operability, etc., which all lead to accumulation of debt risk and financial risk. As a result, the study took the case of Tianjin local government, illustrated the research on the risk management of local debt and carried out operable and practical optimization proposal. By providing effective thoughts on debt risk management, the study has both the academic and practical meaning. The study presented current situation of Tianjin local government in aspects of scale, subject, resource, therefore evaluated the risk level. After that, the study stated the existing risk management procedure, analyzed the existing problems and offered explanation for these problems. On the base of all previous analysis, the study suggested the principle of Tianjin local debt risk management optimizing procedure, conducted necessity and feasibility analysis and brought forward detailed proposal: work out local government debt report based on the strength of the accrual basis, optimize local government performance criteria including; establish local government debt risk early warning mechanism and local debt securitization. At the end, it introduced a case of the debt risk control optimization scheme. The effect of the optimization is presented through the analysis and evaluation of the case. The paper creatively raise the local government debt report based on the strength of the accrual basis. In the study, analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive judgment model were used to establish the warning model. Due to the fact that the debt risk management method developed here was based on the case of Tianjin local government debt, financial situation, economic situation and debt control situation, compared with only theoretical analysis, the method would offer more practical and operational meaning. The effect of implement is also being testified during the practice.
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