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论文编号：	7907
作者编号：	2120132556
上传时间：	2015/12/8 15:49:11
中文题目：	天津房地产上市公司的财务风险评价研究
英文题目：	Real Estate Enterprise Financial RiskEvaluation Research in Tianjin
指导老师：	王全喜
中文关键字：	房地产企业；财务风险；Z－Score模型；沃尔分析法
英文关键字：	Real Estate Enterprises, Financial Risk, Z-Score Model, Walter Weight Method
中文摘要：	我国的房地产行业是我国经济发展的重要产业支柱，其上下游相关产业覆盖面甚广，房地产行业对调整产业结构、改善人民生活水平有着相当关键的作用。房地产行业的波动不仅影响到上下游产业发展，甚至会造成国民经济失衡，甚至对社会的稳定都有深远的影响，美国的次贷危机就很好的验证了这一点。 我国房地产行业经过长期上涨，部分城市存在一定泡沫，许多房地产企业资产负债率和借款费用都较高，这对房地产企业偿债能力提出了较高的要求。财务成本的提高在一定程度上影响了房地产企业的盈利能力，加之国家为了抑制房价较快上涨而实行的限购限贷政策，使市场环境产生了变化，许多房地产企业存货周转率增加，销售速度下降，持续这种情况很可能造成企业资金链断裂，出现倒闭的风险。另一方面，我国房地产企业发展的资金来源较为单一，大多是由银行体系提供贷款，如果房地产企业产生大面积的财务风险，其对金融系统产生的影响可想而知，因此采取一定的方法分析房地产业的财务风险、探究其形成风险的源头具有重要的现实和理论意义。 房地产行业有其特殊性，资金使用规模、使用周期、回款周期、区域属性等方面均与其他行业有较大区别，本文在对财务风险进行分析的基础上，详细分析了房地产业财务风险的概念、特点以及分类，并对影响房地产业财务风险的因素做了全面的分析。在研究总结了国内外众多学者对房地产业财务风险研究成果的基础上，对比了沃尔分析法、Z－Score模型、单变量分析法、主成分分析法、Logit模型、Probit模型优缺点，选择了适用性高、使用简便的沃尔分析法及Z－Score模型作为企业财务风险的分析工具，并将沃尔分析法的使用进行了适度改进，对异常数据采取上下限的限制，防止其对评价结果过度干扰；另外，因为房地产行业具有区域性的特点，大型一线城市外来人口的过分涌入，房屋供给明显不足，导致房地产产品价格失衡，而三、四线城市由于产业基础薄弱，人口吸附能力差，容易产生供给过剩显现，这个两种情况都可能影响财务预测的准确程度，因此本文在最后的实证分析部分，选取了供给、需求、发展速度较为均衡的天津房地产市场作为研究对象，以天津全部上市房地产公司作为研究样本，先利用Z－Score模型进行初步判定，该模型的总体有效率达到了71.4%，再运用沃尔分析法对Z-Score模型的结果和指标进行检测，很好地解释了Z值分值异常的成因，这两种方法的联合能够有效明晰两个模型中异常指标的产生原因，特别是对Z-Score中的X4值异常波动合理性的辨别起到了较为显著的作用。本文也希望通过两种模型的联合得出对房地产企业财务风险评价更加具指导意义的新途径。 关键词：房地产企业；财务风险；Z－Score模型；沃尔分析法
英文摘要：	Real estate industry is the important pillar industry of economic development in China, the upstream and downstream related industries have a wide coverage. The real estate industry has a key role in adjusting the industrial structure and improving people's living standard. Fluctuations in the real estate industry not only affect the upstream and downstream industry development, even can cause imbalance of national economy, and even have far-reaching influence on the stability of the society. Subprime crisis in the US is such an example to prove. China's real estate industry has been rising for a long period and starting to froth in some of the cities. Many real estate enterprises’ asset-liability ratio and borrowing costs are high, which set higher requirements on debt paying ability of the real estate enterprises. Financial cost increase to a certain extent, affected the real estate enterprises’ profit ability, and the government’s restrictions limit credit policy in order to prevent the housing prices rising too fast which make the market environment change, many real estate enterprises increased inventory turnover and sales drop in the meantime. If this kind of situation continues, it is likely to break the enterprises’ capital chain and increase the risk of failure. On the other hand, sources of funds for real estate development in our country is limited, it is mostly by the banking system to provide loans. If lots of the real estate enterprises raise financial risks, it will have obvious impact of the financial system. So taking some methods to analyze the financial risk of the real estate industry and explore the source of the risk formation have important realistic and theoretical significance. Real estate industry has its particularity, the capital scale, using cycle, payback periods, regional identities, etc are different from other industries.This article, on the basis of the analysis of financial risk, analyzes the concept, characteristic and classification of the real estate financial risk, and also analyses the affect factors of the financial risk of real estate industry. On the basis of research achievements of many domestic and foreign scholars of the real estate financial risk, compare advantages and disadvantages of the Walter Weight Method, Z-Score Model, UnivariateAnalysis, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Logit Model, Probit Model, and choose Walter Weight Method and Z-Score Modeldue totheir high suitability and convenience to use as a tool for enterprise financial risk analysis,make some improvement by taking the upper and lower limit of abnormal data to prevent the excessive interference with the result of evaluation. In addition, because the real estate housing industry has the characteristics of regional, excessive influx of a large urban floating population into the first-tier cities cause the housing supply shortage, and in third or fourth line cities, due to weak industrial base, the population adsorption ability is poor, it tends to be housing oversupply, both of which may affect the accuracy of the financial forecast.So in this paper, an empirical analysis in the last part, we choose Tianjin real estate market as an research object with all of Tianjin real estate listed companies as research samples,due to its relatively balance in the supply, demand and development speed. We use Z-Score model to carry on the preliminary judgement and Walter Weight Method to analyse detailed financial risk possible links, Z - Score Model of overall efficiency 71.4%，using the Walter Weight Methodto test index and results of Z - Score model，to explain the reason of abnormal results of Z value. The combination of these two methods analysis the reason of abnormal index’s appearance very well, especially for recognization of X4 value (stock value) abnormal fluctuations rationality. Through this article we hope to get a new way having guiding significance to the financial risk assessment of real estate enterprises through combination of the two models.
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