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论文编号：	7848
作者编号：	2120132956
上传时间：	2015/12/7 19:54:31
中文题目：	云燕庄园养老房地产项目风险管理研究
英文题目：	The research of risk management on pension real estate project of YunYan Manor
指导老师：	李勇建
中文关键字：	房地产，养老地产，风险管理，云燕庄园项目
英文关键字：	real estate, pension real estate, risk management, Yunyan estate project
中文摘要：	我国房地产行业经由多年来的高速发展已经成长为国民经济支柱性产业之一。近年来随着政府房地产调控政策的不断出台和世界范围内的经济增长乏力，普通住宅市场形势低迷，次贷危机余波的影响，投资环境的恶化，政策的不确定等因素都增大了房地产项目开发的风险。同时，随着我国逐步进入老龄化社会，具有养老功能的住宅产品开始成为房地产市场新的热点。养老地产做为一种创新的养老方式，把房地产和养老服务有机的融合在了一起。但是做为一种房地产和养老产业复合的新的地产形态，除了房地产行业固有的风险外，还具有养老产业独有的风险因素，这使得养老地产在具有广阔投资前景的同时也具有着高风险性，风险管理在养老地产项目开发过程中应得到足够的重视。本文通过大量阅读房地产项目管理、风险管理及养老产业等相关文献资料，对风险管理的基本理论知识、风险管理工具和方法进行总结和归纳做为后续研究的理论基础；然后结合房地产行业、养老行业的现状及特点，以云燕庄园养老地产项目为实例进行养老地产项目的包括风险识别、评估、应对、监控的全过程风险管理研究；通过云燕庄园项目的案例研究得出适合养老地产风险管理的普遍适用的方法和模式。本文以云燕庄园养老地产项目做为案例研究养老地产项目的全过程风险管理，通过大量相关文献阅读，结合云燕庄园项目的特点，通过头脑风暴法和专家调查法对云燕庄园项目的风险因素进行了识别，并依据工作环节把识别出的风险因素构建为8个一级风险指标和27个二级风险指标。在风险因素指标构建完成后通过专家调查法对风险因素发生的可能性及损害程度进行估计并通过风险坐标图对27个风险因素分级排序；并利用基于层次法确定权重集的模糊综合法对项目的整体风险进行定量评价，得出项目的整体风险度。然后结合项目风险评估结果和项目特点对风险因素制定应对策略及监控措施。本文通过云燕庄园养老地产项目案例的研究，梳理出一套应用于养老地产开发项目全生命周期的风险管理程序，从而实现对云燕庄园养老项目开发的风险管理指导，并为养老地产行业风险管理提供研究及实践案例。
英文摘要：	The rapid development of China's real estate industry through the years has grown into one of the pillar industries of the national economy. With the introduction in recent years and weak economic growth worldwide government real estate control policies, the general housing market downturn, the impact of the aftermath of the subprime crisis, the deterioration of the investment environment, policies such uncertain factors have increased the real estate project development risk. Meanwhile, as China has gradually entered the aging society, old-age function housing product has started to become a new hot real estate market. Pension estate as an innovative way, pension services to real estate and organic integrate together. But as a new form of real estate property and pension-industrial complex, in addition to the risks inherent in the real estate industry, but also has a unique risk factors pension industry, which makes the pension at the same time has a broad real estate investment prospects also have a high risk, risk management in the pension estate project development process should be given adequate attention. Through a lot of reading relevant literature real estate project management, risk management and pension industries, the basic theoretical knowledge, risk management tools and approaches to risk management will be summarized and summarized as follow-up study of the theoretical basis; and then combined with the status and characteristics of the pension industry and the real estate industry, the whole process of risk management study Yunyan Manor retirement real estate projects as an example of old-age real estate projects, including risk identification, assessment, response, monitoring; draw universally applicable methods and models through case studies Yunyan estate projects for pension real estate risk management. In this thesis, the pension Yunyan manor estate project studies the whole process of risk management as a case of old-age real estate projects, through a lot of literature to read, combining the characteristics of Yunyan estate projects, through brainstorming and expert investigation Yunyan estate project risks factors were identified and work areas on the basis of the identified risk factors constructed as 8 grade one risk indicators and 27 grade two risk indicators. After construction in risk factors indicators, to estimate the likelihood and extent of damage of the risk factors through expert survey, grading and sorting 27 risk factors through risk graph; and use Fuzzy Comprehensive Method based on AHP to determine the weight set to evaluate the overall risk of the project quantitative, giving an overall project risk. Then, combined project risk assessment and characteristics of the project to develop coping strategies and monitoring measures on risk factors. By Yunyan manor pension case studies of real estate projects, to tease out a real estate development project applied to pension lifecycle risk management procedures, in order to achieve the pension Yunyan estate project development risk management guidance and the real estate industry for the pension risk provide case management research and practice.
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