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论文编号：	7510
作者编号：	2120132469
上传时间：	2015/6/10 23:40:38
中文题目：	投资者关系、分析师乐观偏差与
英文题目：	Investor Relations, Analysts'' Optimistic Bias and Corporate Value
指导老师：	马连福
中文关键字：	分析师乐观偏差；投资者关系；信息披露；信息竞争；公司价值
英文关键字：	analyst optimism bias; investor relations; information disclosure; information competition, corporate value
中文摘要：	近年来，随着资本市场的成熟与发展，国内分析师预测等相关课题获得了较高的关注，已有文献分析师预测与公司价值之间的关系做过检测，而且往往倾向于认为分析师预测对股价波动有着重要的影响，至于波动方向则不确定。但是至少一致的观点认为分析师会通过各种渠道进行竞争性的信息收集或者通过持股机构进行信息的提前披露，至少是对已披露信息进行更深层次的分析。另一方面，在对分析师的预测数据进行统计的时候发现，分析师预测数据往往会与实际的盈利水平有一定差异，这种偏差根据分析师不同而有所分歧，而统计数据发现分析师的偏差往往倾向于高于实际盈利水平的乐观方向。 分析师基于一些自身的原因，比如佣金动机或者自身预测水平的不足,会对上市公司的盈利进行有偏差的估计。但是这其中至关重要的一个桥梁就是上市公司、分析师之间关于信息的解读和竞争。也就是说分析师的预测偏差，不管是主动还是被动的，都是建立在对上市公司相关信息的调查和判断上，也就是说上市公司所披露的信息或者概括为投资者关系管理水平会对分析师的盈利预测存在某种影响。 上市公司投资者关系管理日益受到上市公司的重视，近年来上市公司的投资者关系管理水平也在逐步的提高。已经有较多的研究证明过投资者关系管理水平与公司价值之间较为显著的正向联系，还有研究证明了投资者关系管理水平作为上市公司资本市场运作的重要环节，加强了其他因素对公司价值的影响效果，也就是它还往往呈现出较强的调节效应。 投资者关系管理的内容也日渐丰富，其中路演、反向路演、业绩说明会或者投资者调研等很多内容都与分析师关系密切。机构投资者的发展壮大也意味着他们会要求公司更高水平的投资者关系管理和信息披露，然后再传送给分析师获得专业的分析结果和投资建议。因此我们认为分析师的盈利预测对公司价值的影响也受到投资者关系管理水平的影响。本文也正是试图通过实证研究揭示三者之间的关系，并且发现分析师乐观偏差确实发挥了调节作用，加强了投资者关系对公司价值的影响效果。
英文摘要：	In recent years, with the development and maturity of the capital market, analysts forecast and other related topics received high attention in China, and they also tend to think that analysts have an important impact on the volatility of stock price, as for wave direction are just not sure. But at least that analysts are competitive to collect information through various channels, or disclose information in advance through the share mechanism, At least for a deeper analysis of the information has been disclosed. On the other hand, when people make statistics in the prediction data of the analyst they found that, analysts' forecasts tend to have certain differences with the actual level of profitability, which varies according to the different analysts. The statistics found that analysts optimistic direction deviation tends to be higher than the actual level of profitability. Because some of their own, such as motivation of commission or lack of professional knowledge, will wrongly estimate the listing corporation's profitability. But a crucial bridge between listed companies, analysts is the interpretation of information and competition. This means that analysts predicted error, whether active or passive, is based on a survey of listed company related information and judgments, that is to say that listed companies disclose information or so called investors relation management level will be some impact on analysts ' earnings forecasts. Investor relations management in listed companies are getting more attention from listed companies, investor relations management in listed companies in recent years, has also gradually improved. There have been more studies to prove a more significant positive relationship between investor relations management level and the value of the company, and studies also showed that the level of investor relations management as an important part of capital market operation of listed companies, strengthening the influence of other factors on the value of the company, which means it tends to give a strong moderating effect. Investor relationship management has become more abundant, reverse roadshows, seminars or investor roadshows, performance research, and many other content has close relationship with the analyst. The development of institutional investors also means that they will require the company a higher level of investor relations management and information disclosure, and then sent to analysts to obtain professional results and investment advice. So we assume that analysts ' earnings estimates for the company's value will be influenced by investor relations management. This paper tries to reveal the relationship between the three through empirical studies, and found that analysts ' optimistic bias does play a regulatory role, to strengthen the influence of investor relations for the value of the company.
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