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论文编号：	7500
作者编号：	2120132435
上传时间：	2015/6/10 22:32:57
中文题目：	我国创业板市场上市公司估值方法研究
英文题目：	Study on Valuation Methods of Companies Listed on ChiNext
指导老师：	陈国欣
中文关键字：	创业板市场，上市公司，估值方法，市盈率法，剩余收益法
英文关键字：	ChiNext，Listed Company，Valuation Methods，The Price-Earnings Ratio Method，The Residual Income Method
中文摘要：	我国创业板市场于2009年10月底正式成立，经历了五年的快速发展，正在逐步迈向成熟，并成功吸引了广大投资者持续而热切的关注。但是我国创业板市场独有的“三高”现象（高市盈率，高发行价格，高超募资金）反映出我国创业板市场上存在“泡沫”。鉴于创业板市场上市公司具有高成长性，高技术含量，高风险等特点，适用于主板市场的传统估值方法并不一定同时适用于创业板市场，所以对我国创业板市场上市公司估值方法进行研究具有重要的意义：有利于进一步丰富完善我国创业板市场上市公司的估值理论、有利于我国整个证券市场各部分协调统一发展、有利于引导投资者进行合理投资、有利于创业板上市公司发现自身的价值以及有利于加强我国资产评估师队伍的建设。 基于以上背景，本文首先概述了企业价值评估理论和企业价值评估方法，然后重点分析了每种方法的优缺点，同时回顾了国内外学者研究创业板市场企业价值评估的文献。本文接着介绍了我国创业板市场的概况，总结出我国创业板市场上市公司的独有特点，并通过分析每种估值方法与创业板上市公司特点之间的联系，定性地排除了成本法、市盈增长率法、股利现金流法和实物期权法用于本文的估值研究，最后选择了市盈率法、市净率法、市销率法，股权现金流法及剩余收益法建立模型进行实证分析。 本文选取了截至2011年底在我国创业板市场上市的281家公司作为研究对象，并选取2011~2013年作为研究区间，通过把上述五种估值方法相应的模型参数与公司的股票价格进行线性回归，进而比较各种估值方法的拟合优度，也就是评估价值与股票价格之间的误差率，即R2调整系数的大小，最终找出相对适用于我国创业板市场上市公司价值评估的方法。 本文的实证研究结果表明：市场法中市盈率法相对适合对我国创业板上市公司进行价值评估，市净率法次之，而市销率法不适合；收益法中剩余收益法相对适合对我国创业板上市公司进行价值评估，而股利现金流法和股权现金流法则不适合。本文的研究找出了相对适用于我国创业板市场上市公司价值评估的方法，有助于完善我国创业板企业估值理论，同时为我国创业板上市公司、投资者以及资产评估机构今后的经营决策或估值研究提供了一些新思路。
英文摘要：	The growth enterprise market in China（ChiNext）was founded at the end of October of 2009, and it has experienced rapid development for five years. ChiNext is becoming more and more developed gradually, and has successfully attracted warm and last attention of the majority of investors. However, ChiNext has three particular phenomena，namely high price earning ratio, high issue price and superb raised funds，reflecting the existence of the bubble on ChiNext. Considering of the listed companies on ChiNext are of high growth，high technology，high risk and so on，the traditional valuation methods applicable to the main board market are not applicable to ChiNext, therefore it is significant to do some research in valuation methods of the listed companies on ChiNext. It helps to further enrich the valuation theory of ChiNext，promote the coordinated development of every part of securities market in China，guide investors to make reasonable investment decisions, make the listed companies on ChiNext find their own value and strengthen the construction of teachers team of asset appraisers in china. Based on the above background, this paper first summarizes the enterprise valuation theory and methods，then analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of each method, and at the same time reviews the domestic and foreign literatures in valuation of enterprises in growth enterprise market. Next the article gives an overview of ChiNext，and sums up the unique characteristics of the listed companies on ChiNext. Through the analysis of each kind of valuation methods and the characteristics of the listed companies on ChiNext, the text qualitatively excludes the cost method, the PE-growth ratio method, the dividend cash flow method and real option method from the valuation methods used in this study, and finally choose the price-earnings ratio method，the price-book value ratio method，the price-sales ratio method，the free cash flow to equity method and the residual income method to establish the empirical model for study. The paper take the 281 companies listed on ChiNext at the end of 2011 as research samples and 2011~2013 as research time frame. Through the linear regression of the corresponding model parameters of the above five valuation methods and the stock prices, the article compares the fitting degree，that is the error rate between the assessed valuation and stock price or R2 adjustment coefficient of the methods to find out the relatively suitable valuation methods for ChiNext. The empirical results show that in market methods, the price-earnings ratio method is relatively suitable to assess valuation for listed companies on ChiNext，and and the price-book value ratio method takes the second place, while the price-sales ratio method is not suitable at all; in income methods, the residual income method is relatively suitable to assess valuation for listed companies on ChiNext，while the free cash flow to equity method is not. The research findings are helpful to improve the valuation theory of ChiNext，and at the same time provide some new ideas for listed companies on ChiNext，investors and asset evaluation institutes to make operating decisions or assess valuation in the future.
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