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论文编号：	7485
作者编号：	2120132386
上传时间：	2015/6/10 16:30:02
中文题目：	上市公司内部控制缺陷与分析师预测研究
英文题目：	Study on the Relationship between Internal Control Weakness and Analyst Forecast Behavior
指导老师：	李姝
中文关键字：	内部控制缺陷；公司层面缺陷；财务报告层面缺陷；分析师预测
英文关键字：	Internal Control Weakness; Company-Level Weakness; Financial Reporting-Level Weakness; Analysts’ Forecast
中文摘要：	2002年美国SOX法案出台以来，内部控制问题引起了学术界以及实务界广泛关注。西方学者对内控信息披露的动因以及内部控制经济后果等进行了较为深入的研究。相比之下，我国的内控制度建设开始较晚，从而导致内部控制的学术研究相对滞后，尤其作为会计信息的重要使用者——证券分析师，其盈余预测行为与内部控制之间的关系很少被国内学者关注。鉴于此，本文选取沪深主板A股上市公司作为研究样本，采用Person相关检验、独立样本t检验、K-S非参数检验以及多元线性回归等方法，从会计信息的重要使用者——分析师的盈余预测行为着手，探讨内部控制缺陷对分析师盈余预测的影响。本文发现内部控制质量对分析师预测准确度以及分歧度均呈现出显著的影响，但是对分析师数目没有显著影响。具体而言，相比于内部控制无缺陷的公司，分析师对内部控制存在缺陷的公司预测误差更大，并且各个分析师预测的分歧度更大。为了深入研究，本文又将内部控制缺陷分为公司层面缺陷和财务报告层面缺陷，探讨到底哪个层次内控缺陷更能影响分析师预测行为。结果发现，财务报告层面的内控缺陷对分析师预测影响更大，也就是说，分析师对存在财务报告层面内控缺陷的公司的盈余预测误差更大，预测分歧度更大。最后，本文建议有关部门加快公司内部控制建设立法进程，规范内部控制缺陷的认定标准以及分类标准，尤其是财务报告相关的内部控制制度建设，同时公司也应积极加强完善内部控制建设，减少内部控制缺陷，提高内控报告的信息含量。
英文摘要：	Since the publication of the 2002 Sarbanes Act, internal control problems have called the academic circles and practical circles’ attention widely. Foreign scholars have conducted the research on the motivation to disclose internal control information and economic consequences of internal control. In contrast, the construction of internal control systems in our country is late. Therefore, academic research in internal control is relatively backward. Especially the study on the effect of the internal control quality on securities analysts as the important users of financial reports is little in the China capital market. In view of this situation, this paper selects listing corporations of the Shanghai and Shenzhen motherboard A shares as the research sample, using Person correlation test, independent sample t test, K-S test and multiple linear regression methods. Beginning with the important users of accounting information – analysts’ earnings forecast behavior, this paper studies the influence of internal control weakness on it. This paper finds that the internal control weaknesses have significant effects on the accuracy and divergence of analyst earnings forecasts, but on the number of analysts the effect was not significant. Specifically, compared to the corporations without internal control weaknesses, analysts’ forecast for the internal control weaknesses enterprise is less accurate, and the divergence degree of analysts’ forecast is larger. Based on this, this paper divides internal control weaknesses into company level and financial reporting level, to further explore which level can affect the forecast behavior of analysts. The results show that the internal control weaknesses of financial reporting level have a greater influence on analysts’ forecast behavior. In other worlds, the forecasting errors and divergence on corporations existing financial reporting-level weaknesses are larger. Finally, the paper suggests that the relevant departments improve the internal control construction policies and regulations, especially the financial report internal control related. At the same time, enterprises also should actively carry out the construction of internal control, to reduce the weaknesses of internal control and improve the disclosure quality of internal control information.
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