联系我们

论文查询结果	返回搜索

论文编号：	7449
作者编号：	2120132394
上传时间：	2015/6/9 23:04:18
中文题目：	中国上市银行估值问题研究
英文题目：	Research on the Valuation of A-Share
指导老师：	齐岳
中文关键字：	上市银行；估值；市净率；影响因素
英文关键字：	Listed banks; Valuation; Price-to-book; Influence factors
中文摘要：	价值评估一直是资本市场上有争议的问题，合理的价值评估对于我国目前提出的发展多层次的资本市场有着重要的意义。金融业作为我国经济的核心，是国民经济的命脉，银行业又是金融业的中流砥柱，因此，银行估值很重要。目前关于我国上市银行价值评估的研究大多数是通过比较各种估值方法对于银行业的适用性，然后选取合适的方法结合一家银行或者多家银行进行案例分析，缺少对于市净率影响因素的实证检验。因此，本文旨在探究银行业市净率的影响因素以及相关因素对于市净率的影响方向，给监管者、银行和投资者提供参考。本文在国内外相关研究结果的基础上，结合我国A股上市银行的实际情况，以市净率为被解释变量，解释变量包括宏观经济因素、A股市场因素、规模、资本结构、行业监管因素以及公司因素和市场化因素等，通过建立的模型分两步对A股估值的影响因素和银行业估值的影响因素进行回归分析，最后选取净资产收益率作为被解释变量进行稳健性检验。结果表明：影响A股市场估值的因素同样适用于银行业；贷款利率、资产负债率、手续费与佣金收入增长率和非利息收入占比等指标与银行业的市净率存在显著的正相关关系；GDP增长率、M1与M2同比之差、存款利率、Wind全A指数、总资产、资本充足率、不良贷款率和存贷比等指标与市净率呈显著的负相关关系。研究的理论意义为：加入一些新的影响因素，完善国内对于银行业估值影响因素的研究，同时也丰富了有关银行业市净率的研究内容。实践意义为：对于监管者来说，可以根据各项因素对银行估值造成的影响来调整相关政策或者对其进行必要的指引，引导银行在有序的市场轨道上发展；对于投资者来说，可以根据银行业的各项指标或者宏观政策因素的变动来判断各家银行的价值的变动，进而进行合理的投资；对于银行自身来说，可以根据其在资本市场上的表现，以及各项外部因素和内部因素对其价值的影响程度或者影响方向，根据实际情况来调整自己的战略方向或者经营模式，谋求更大的利润和更好的资本市场表现。
英文摘要：	Value evaluation has been a controversial concern in the capital market, and reasonable evaluation is of great significance for the multi-level capital market in our country at present. As the core of economy, finance is the lifeblood of the national economy. The banking industry is a mainstay of the financial industry, so the evaluation of banks is important. Current research about the evaluation of listed banks in China are mostly by comparing various methods for the applicability of the bank industry, and then select appropriate method in combination with a bank or banks for case analysis, but they lack the factors which can influence the price-to-book of the empirical test. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to explore the influence factors of price-to-book and the effects of related factors on price-to-book direction. So, we can provide reference to regulators, banks and investors. In this paper, on the basis of related research results at home and abroad, we choose price-to-book as explained variable and macro-economic factors, A-share market factors, scale, capital structure, industry, market factors and regulatory factors as the variable, combining with the actual situation of China’s A-share listed Banks. Then we make an empirical analysis of related factors in two steps by establishing the models, and finally we select ROE as explained variable for robustness test. Results show that the factors which influence the A-share market also apply to the banking industry; price-to book and lending rate, asset-liability ratio, handing fee, commission income growth rate and non-interest income accounted for the operating income are significant positive correlation; price-to-book and year-on-year growth rate of GDP, the difference of M1 and M2, deposit interest rate, the index of Wind, total assets, capital adequacy ratio and non-performing loan ratio has significant negative correlation relationship. The theoretical significance is improving the domestic research on valuation factors of banking industry by adding some new factors and enriching the research content about banking price-to-book. It also has some practical significance. For regulators, they can adjust the relevant policy or take the necessary guidance to make the banks develop in an orderly market orbit. For investors, according to the indicators of banking or the changes of the macroeconomic policy, they can determine the changes in the value of the banks and make reasonable investment. For the banks themselves, they can adjust their strategic direction or business model according to their performance in the capital market, the impact on the value made by the external factors and internal factors and the actual situation, so they can seek greater profits and make capital market performance better.
查看全文：	预览  下载(下载需要进行登录)