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论文编号：	73
作者编号：	2120051930
上传时间：	2007/6/21 14:58:16
中文题目：	不确定性对企业固定资产投资影响
英文题目：	Research on the Effect of Unce
指导老师：	黄福广
中文关键字：	不确定性;固定资产投资;不可逆性
英文关键字：	Uncertainty;Fixed Assets Inves
中文摘要：	企业的固定资产投资项目，尤其是战略性固定资产投资项目，具有投资不可逆性的特点。不确定性是影响固定资产投资决策的重要因素之一，随着环境变化速度的日益加快，固定资产投资项目决策受不确定性因素影响而出现失误的风险也越来越大。目前中国还处于转轨经济时期，企业面临多种不确定性因素，正确认识不确定性对企业固定资产投资的影响对于企业制定科学的投资决策而言具有重要的意义。鉴于此，本研究就不确定性对企业固定资产投资的影响进行比较系统和深入地探讨，以期对企业制定科学的投资决策、政府管理部门制定有关的企业政策提供有益的思路。 具体来说，本研究做了以下工作。首先，详细地回顾了国内外相关的研究文献；其次，介绍了企业固定资产投资决策过程中的不确定性种类和产生根源，并结合中国实际分析了环境中的各种不确定性因素；再次，在现有研究成果和本研究理论分析的基础上提出了研究假设，并基于托宾Q模型和销售加速模型，建立了时间序列/截面数据模型(Panel-Data Model)。最后，利用中国制造业上市公司的部分交易数据和财务数据，采用可行的广义最小二乘法(GLS)对模型进行了回归分析，最终得出研究结论。 本研究得出的结论包括：第一，不论是全样本还是分样本，也不论是否考虑投资机会和融资约束，总体不确定性和市场不确定性都对公司的固定资产投资具有显著的负影响。第二，不可逆程度与公司固定资产投资之间存在显著的负相关关系。考虑投资机会和融资约束时，总体不确定性和市场不确定性对原材料类上市公司固定资产投资的负影响大于对机械类上市公司固定资产投资的负影响。第三，市场不确定性对固定资产投资的负影响大于总体不确定性对固定资产投资的负影响。从平均水平来看，市场不确定性对固定资产投资的负影响大于公司特有不确定性对固定投资的负影响。第四，不同公司的固定资产投资对公司特有不确定性的反应不同。对于超过半数的公司而言，公司特有不确定性对公司固定资产投资的影响为负，少于一半的公司为正。
英文摘要：	Fixed assets investment project of enterprises’, especially the strategic fixed assets investment project has the character of irreversibility. Uncertainty is one of the most important factors that affect the fixed assets investment decision-making of enterprises’. The change of the environment is becoming quicker and quicker, and the possibility of making the wrong decision because of the effect of uncertainty is bigger and bigger. At present, China is still at the stage of transition, enterprises face many kinds of uncertainties. Realizing the effects of uncertainty to fixed assets investment rightly is very important for the enterprises to make scientific investment decisions. Owing to these, this paper makes a systematic and deep research on the effects of uncertainty to fixed assets investment decision-making of enterprises in order to help enterprises make scientific investment decision and help the government make the right policies. Totally speaking, this paper does the following work. Firstly, reviews the relative literature on this topic in detail. Secondly, introduces the kinds of uncertainties in fixed assets investment decision-making and their roots. At the same time, combining with Chinese fact, this paper analyzes some kinds of uncertainties in the environment. Thirdly, on the bases of former researches and this paper’s theoretical analyses, puts forward the research hypotheses, and based on Tobin’s Q model and sales accelerator model, establishes the Panel-Data Model. Finally, using the business and financial data of Chinese manufacturing listed companies’and Generalized Least Squares method estimates the regression models and draws some conclusions. The conclusions of this paper contains: 1. No matter what kinds of samples——whole sample or part samples, and whether considering investment opportunities and financial constraint or not, both aggregate uncertainty and market uncertainty have significantly negative effects on fixed assets investment of companies’. 2. Irreversibility and fixed assets investment of companies have significantly negative relationship. Considering investment opportunities and financial constraint, aggregate uncertainty and market uncertainty have a more significantly negative effect on fixed assets investment of materials companies than on machines companies’. 3. Compared with aggregate uncertainty, market uncertainty haves a more significantly negative effects on fixed assets investment of companies’. On the average level, compared with firm-specific uncertainty, market uncertainty has more significantly negative effect on fixed assets investment of companies’. 4. Different companies’fixed assets investments have different feedbacks to firm-specific uncertainty. For more than half companies, firm-specific uncertainties have negative effects on fixed assets investment, and to less than a half, the coefficients are positive.
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