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论文编号：	7266
作者编号：	2220110423
上传时间：	2015/6/4 9:06:34
中文题目：	好望角型散货船建造项目风险管理研究
英文题目：	Research on Risk Management of Cape Size Bulk Carrier Construction Project
指导老师：	焦媛媛
中文关键字：	好望角型散货船建造项目；项目风险管理；层次分析法；造船项目风险识别
英文关键字：	Capesize bulk carrier construction projects; Project risk management; Analytic hierarchy process (AHP); Shipbuilding project risk identification
中文摘要：	我国现代船舶建造行业发展十分迅速，通过大量借鉴和吸收国外经验，领先国内其他行业率先将项目管理方法运用到实际企业运作中。尤其在前几年全球经济高速发展的大环境下，各大中小船舶建造公司普遍采取广接订单、广造船舶的发展模式，积累了大量的船舶建造工程项目管理的经验，培养了一大批专业的项目管理人员。然而好景不长，由于全球性经济危机的到来，船舶制造业受到了全球范围的影响波及，波罗的海指数陡降，造成整个海洋运输业的低迷之势。全球范围的运费下降使得各个船运公司纷纷通过封存运力的方式以节约成本支出，甚至为了减轻风险不惜违反合同也要取消造船订单。这便造成了世界造船企业市场竞争日趋激烈，我国作为航运大国也首当其冲受到打击。近几年来我国航运业持续低迷，同时伴随着大型高自动化船舶的广受青睐，新型材料和先进技术不断注入，再加上我国船舶建造管理水平还有待提高、建造管理和技术操作人才缺乏等因素，造成了我国船舶建造行业总体呈颓废状态，处于这种被动局势的我国船舶建造业，势必要面对更大的挑战和风险，项目风险管理越来越受到项目管理人员的重视。我国项目风险管理于20世纪80年代才从国外引进，并运用到国内船舶建造项目中较国外起步晚。在船舶建设项目中，决策者要结合以往的风险管理经验和流程，按照正确的体系对项目存在的风险进行分类并整合归纳，将风险管理的概念穿插在船舶建造每个过程中，遭遇项目风险时要及时做出调整，取得最好收益。 本篇论文以大连船舶重工集团承建的好望角型散货船建造项目为案例，按照项目风险管理流程，通过项目工作分解结构将本项目分为五个阶段，包括项目定义与决策阶段、项目设计阶段、项目生产准备阶段、项目实施阶段和项目试航与交付阶段。利用情景分析法、专家决策法和头脑风暴法系统地分析并识别了在项目各阶段所要面临的各种风险因素，列出详细的风险识别清单。在风险识别的基础上运用层次分析法进行风险度量，得到各阶段风险权重排序。然后利用模糊综合评价法对整个案例项目的风险等级进行评价。最后根据风险识别和风险度量结果制定详细的风险应对措施。
英文摘要：	China's modern shipbuilding industry development is very rapid, through a lot of reference and absorbing foreign experience, leading other domestic industry take the lead in the project management method used in the actual enterprise operation. Especially in the last few years with rapid development of global economy environment, the medium shipbuilding companies generally adopted widely receive orders, ship model of development, has accumulated a lot of ship construction engineering project management experience, has trained a large number of professional project managers. But not for long, because the arrival of global economic crisis, ship manufacturing industry affected by the global spread, steep fall in the Baltic index, caused the entire Marine transportation industry downturn. Global freight falling all shipping companies to save costs by means of storage capacity, and in order to reduce the risk of breach of contract will cancel orders. This has caused the world shipbuilding enterprises increasingly fierce competition in the market, as a maritime power in our country is also the first hit. In recent years our country shipping industry continues to weaken, accompanied by a large high automation ship popular, new materials and advanced technology continuous injection, combined with China's shipbuilding management level needs to be improved and the lack of the construction management and technical operations personnel factors, caused the overall a decadent state of China's shipbuilding industry, in the passive situation in the construction of our country shipping, certainly will face greater challenges and risks, project risk management more and more get the attention of the project management personnel. Project risk management in our country was introduced from abroad in the 1980 s, and applied to the domestic shipbuilding project late from abroad. In ship construction project, policy makers should combine previous experience in risk management and process, according to the correct system for project risk classification and integration, the concept of risk management in shipbuilding process, each project risks encountered to adjust in time, make the best gains. This thesis to DaLian shipbuilding industry group construction of capesize bulk carrier construction project as a case, according to the project risk management processes, through project work breakdown structure of this project will be divided into five stages, including the project definition and decision-making stage, design stage, project production preparation period, project implementation stage and project trial and delivery period. Using the scenario analysis method, expert decision and brainstorming method to systematically analyze and identify the stages in the project have to face all kinds of risk factors, to list the detailed list of risk identification. On the basis of risk identification using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to measure risk, risk weightings in different stages of the sort. Then using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the entire case project risk level. According to the risk identification and risk measurement results of detailed risk response.
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