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论文编号：	725
作者编号：	2120062062
上传时间：	2008/6/20 18:20:30
中文题目：	我国制药业上市公司投资价值评价
英文题目：	The Empirical research on Inve
指导老师：	李莉
中文关键字：	制药业上市公司 主成分分析法
英文关键字：	Pharmaceutical industry listed
中文摘要：	被喻为“朝阳产业”的制药业一直是投资者的投资热点。21世纪，制药业仍将保持稳定增长的态势，潜力巨大。但是在市场急剧变化的今天，如何分析制药业上市公司的投资价值，在众多上市公司中选出最具有投资价值的上市公司进行投资，成为困扰广大投资者的问题。本文在传统投资价值评估方法的基础上，通过对主成分分析法的分析，采用该方法构建模型对制药业上市公司投资价值进行实证研究，以期获得一些有益的结论。 本文首先介绍了研究的背景和意义，并对本文的投资价值这一概念进行了界定，这是本文研究的起点，接着介绍了本文的研究方法和研究框架。第二章介绍了投资价值的相关理论，回顾了西方和国内的投资价值评价的研究状况，然后分析了传统投资价值评价方法在我国应用的局限性，最后简要介绍了主成分分析法及其在制药业上市公司投资价值评价中应用的优势。第三章是我国制药业上市公司现状及其投资价值影响因素分析，简要介绍了我国制药业的特点和存在的问题，然后从宏观、中观和微观层面分析了投资价值评价的影响因素，为下文选择制药业上市公司投资价值评价指标，进行投资价值评价实证分析打下了基础。第四章是本文的实证研究部分，首先介绍了评价指标选取的原则和指标的确定；然后介绍了模型的构建及其在spss中的处理原理，由于主成分分析法不能在spss中直接实现，且其原理和操作都易与因子分析相混淆，所以本节首先分析了主成分分析法和因子分析法的区别和联系，在此基础上描述了怎样在spss的因子分析的基础上利用主成分分析法进行投资价值评价模型的数据处理；然后介绍了模型的数据处理过程和输出结果，随后利用熵权法对模型做了进一步改进，消除了数据间的纵向差异性，并对改进前后的输出结果进行显著性检验，以验证模型的稳定性。第五章利用改进后的模型计算出制药业上市公司2002-2006年投资价值排名的变化，并对典型的上市公司进行了分析，通过排名变化情况的分析，可以看出本模型是合理的。第六章是本文的总结部分。 本文的创新之处在于：第一、在清楚区别主成分分析法和因子分析法的基础上，利用spss进行模型的实证分析；第二、引入了熵的概念对模型进行改进，在消除数据间横向差异性的基础上，消除数据间纵向的差异性影响。
英文摘要：	Pharmaceutical industry is always an important area for investors. In the 21st century, pharmaceutical industry will keep its steady increasing trend and huge potential. But in today’s market which changes sharply, how to analyze pharmaceutical listed companies’ investment value and choose the most valuable companies to invest becomes the harassment of vast investors. This paper uses the principal components analysis method to build the model of investment value appraisal to do the empirical research through the analysis of principal component analysis in the base of introduction and comparison of traditional investment value appraisal method. We hope to get some useful conclusion to guidance. This paper introduces its research background and meaning at first and then defines the concept of the investment value which is the start point of this paper. Then the paper introduces its research method and research framework. The chapter two introduces the relative theory of investment value, reviews foreign and domestic research conditions of investment value appraisal. It analyzes the limitations of the application of traditional investment value appraisal in China. At the end of this chapter, it introduces the principal components analysis method and its advantage in the pharmaceutical industry investment value appraisal. The chapter three contains China pharmaceutical industry condition analysis and its investment value influence factor analysis. It introduces China pharmaceutical industry’s characters and problems and then analyzes influence factors from the macroscopically, interspaced and microscopically views. Chapter four is the empirical research part in this paper. It introduces the principal of appraisal index and the choosing of the indexes. Then it introduces the building of model and its disposal method in Spss. To get a clear view of principal components analysis the paper analyzes the differentiate and connection between PCA and factor analysis. In this basement, the paper introduces the disposal process and results of the model. The paper then improves the model with entropy right method to eliminate the portrait diversity of data. To validate the model’s stability, the paper makes a significance test of the four results. Chapter five makes a place change in pharmaceutical industry with the improved model of data in 2002-2006. Then the paper analyzes the representative companies’ change in ordinal place to validate the model’s reasonability. Chapter six is the conclusion part. The innovations of this paper are: 1. Using Spss disposal data in the base of clear differentiate between principal components analysis and factor analysis. 2. Importing entropy right method to improve the model and to eliminate portrait diversity of the data.
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