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论文编号：	7227
作者编号：	2220130863
上传时间：	2015/6/2 21:27:43
中文题目：	永定新河闸下综合开发项目风险管理研究
英文题目：	A study on the risk management for comprehensive development project of new Yongding River penstock
指导老师：	戚安邦
中文关键字：	河道清淤；排泥场建设；排泥场开发；风险识别；风险度量
英文关键字：	River dredging；Sludge field construction；Sludge field development；Risks identifying；Riskmeasuring
中文摘要：	河道清淤，属于一般的水利工程，是为了恢复河道防洪、排涝、灌溉、供水、通航等基本功能，以促进社会经济持续快速的发展。在进行河道清淤工程前，必须确保清理的淤泥有明确的去向和处理方式。排泥场的存在即是为了满足这一需要。一般而言，排泥场的使用具有周期性，是一项永久性工程。但特殊情况下，由于河道特殊的地理位置，无法进行固定的排泥场建设，为满足河道排泥的需求，只能建立临时排泥场。本文以永定新河闸下河道清淤、排泥场建设、排泥场开发等综合开发项目为研究对象，对该综合开发项目风险进行管理，旨在识别出该综合开发项目关键风险因素，降低风险发生的概率和由于项目风险而造成的不利后果。本文在研究过程中首先对项目管理理论、项目风险管理理论进行系统的研究分析，然后对相关理论的国内外研究现状进行综述，分析已有研究的优势与不足。以永定新河闸下综合开发项目的项目组成和项目背景为依托，分别从宏观和微观两个角度分析项目自身的独特性及它们的内在结构关系，然后采用德尔菲法、头脑风暴法识别项目存在的潜在风险，并用层次分析法和专家决策法对各风险因素进行度量。最后文中识别出自然风险、技术风险、建设资金风险、建设用地权属风险、组织管理风险等五类关键的风险因素。并针对上述风险又提出了相应的应对策略。
英文摘要：	River dredging is a kind of general water conservancy project whose purpose is recovering the rivers’ basic functions, such as flood avoiding, draining, irrigating, water supplying, navigating and so on. As a result, it will benefit the social economy development and make it sustained and rapid. However, before carrying out this project, the organizer has to make sure the place where the sludge is stored temporarily and the way how to deal with the sludge. The existence of mud field is a way to satisfy this special need. Generally, the usage of the mud field is periodical, so it’s a permanent project. However, in some special cases-the river is located in some special geographical areas, the mud field cannot exist permanently. In order to meet the needs of sludge discharge, the temporary mud field can be a choice. This thesis focuses on river dredging, construction and development of mud field for Yongding River, which also has this special condition, and then takes on risk management for this comprehensive project in order that we can decrease the risk probability adverse consequences caused by risks. This thesis is structured as follows: First, it analyzed the theory of project management, the theory of project risk management systematically. Second, it reviewed the research status both at home and abroad of the related theories, presenting the merits and shortcomings of them. Then, basing on the background of the project of comprehensive development of Yongding River and the components of this project, this thesis studies the specificity of the project and its internal structural relationship from macro and micro angle respectively. Then it identify the potential risk by means of Delphi and brainstorming method, and use the hierarchy process and expert decision to measure these risk factors. As a result, it distinguishes five key risk factors which will be from nature, technology, funds for construction, rights for using lands and organization management. In the end of this thesis, corresponding measures to solve the risks are suggested.
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