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论文编号：	6971
作者编号：	2120122933
上传时间：	2014/12/9 10:09:02
中文题目：	中国生物医药行业上市公司的企业估值分析——以恒瑞医药为例
英文题目：	Study on the Enterprise’ Value of Biomedicine Manufacture Industry Listed Companies ——Taking Hengrui Medicine Company for Example
指导老师：	齐岳
中文关键字：	恒瑞医药，估值模型，自由现金流，市盈率，估值分析
英文关键字：	Hengrui Medicine, Valuation analysis, Discounted free cash flow, Price earnings ratio
中文摘要：	随着经济全球化的持续发展，国内医药业发展环境也发生了急剧的变化，行业竞争格局和竞争态势都在加剧。在这种环境下，国内生物医药业的整体实力有待进一步的提高，需要一批具有研发创新药实力的企业成长起来。目前，国外的医药企业具有很强的研发实力，竞争力强。目前，中国医药业上市企业虽然每年都在大幅度增加，但企业的综合实力良莠不齐。因此，只有全方位的深入研究所投资的企业，对企业进行重新估值，才能发现企业价值，寻找到投资机会。本文将生物医药行业中的上市公司代表恒瑞医药作为研究对象，通过定量与定性分析相结合的方法，进行估值分析。首先介绍了研究的背景、意义，并对估值理论和方法进行了介绍；其次介绍了我国医药行业的现状及目标公司的概况；再次，深入研究分析了恒瑞医药公司中长期发展要素，在分析生物医药行业的发展趋势的基础上，重点研究了恒瑞医药未来的发展趋势，分别运用自由现金流量折现模型和市盈率法对恒瑞医药重新进行了估值分析和比较研究。市盈率法和自由现金流量折现模型的估值分别是31.98元/股和51.01元/股，取两种方法的中值，作为恒瑞医药的合理估值即为41.50元/股，38.5元以下为安全投资区。当前股票的价格是37.98元/股，认为属于合理范围。针对医药企业的价值评估提供的建议是：综合使用各种评估方法对企业价值进行评估并适当选择收益法结合市场法进行估值分析。最后通过对公司的系统性和非系统性风险的分析，作为恒瑞医药公司要通过不断完善企业自身的创新体系建设，合理优化资源配置，加大研发投入，加快人才引进和培养，进行新药的有效研发，全力保证重点研究项目按要求推进、按计划上市。而作为投资者，我们可以看出恒瑞医药的运营情况良好，以自身实力推动公司的国际化进程，企业处于发展期并有稳定的正向现金流提供了保障。在资本市场上，恒瑞医药的经营形势良好、发展能力强、盈利能力好和具有强的新药研发实力等特点都会给投资者信心，获得市场的青睐，促使上行表现。最后提出了本文的研究结论、局限。
英文摘要：	As economic globalization continue to further advance, the development of domestic pharmaceutical industry environment has changed dramatically, exacerbated the market structure adjustment and industry competition. In this situation, the overall strength of the domestic pharmaceutical industry need to be further improved, especially the research on innovative drugs. At present, foreign pharmaceutical enterprise has a strong research and development background and strong competitiveness. In this paper, bio-pharmaceutical industry in the listed company on behalf of HRH medicine as a research object, through a combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis methods, valuation analysis. First introduces the research background, significance, and valuation theory and methods were introduced. Secondly, the current situation of China's pharmaceutical industry and the target company's profile were described. Based on the in-depth research and analysis of the Hengrui's long-term development, development trend was figured out. Then free cash flow and earnings discount models used in Hengrui re-valuation analysis. The values are 51.01 yuan/share and 31.98 yuan/share respectively. Taking the mean value of the two methods as the reasonable valuation of Hengrui, that is the 41.50 yuan/share. 38.5 yuan was the following safe investment zone. The current stock price is 37.98 yuan/share considered to be a reasonable range. Finally, through the analysis of the company's system and non systemic risk respectively, for Henry pharmaceutical company through continuous improvement of their own innovation system, optimize the allocation of resources, increase R & D investment to accelerate the new drugs effective research and development. For investors, it gives investors the confidence to get the market's favor, prompting the uplink performance. At last, explained its impact on the valuation of the proposed research conclusions, limitation of this thesis.
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