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论文编号：	6880
作者编号：	2120122694
上传时间：	2014/12/8 10:00:52
中文题目：	T港口集团人力资源规划的需求预测研究——以人均利润指标为视角
英文题目：	A Research on Requirement Forecast in Human Resource Planning of T Port Group——Base on Profit per Employee
指导老师：	杨斌
中文关键字：	人力资源需求预测；人均利润；无差异曲线模型；四象限模型
英文关键字：	Human resources demand forecast;Per capita profit;Indifference curve model;Four-quadrant model
中文摘要：	人力资源需求预测与分析是人力资源规划的基础，也是人力资源各项管理工作的起点。但是在管理实践中，人力资源需求预测却常常由于企业“战略金字塔”的层级结构而导致传导滞后；而需求预测也因资金、技术、劳动力要素及人为因素的影响逐渐失去了与企业战略行为、执行结果的直接联系。这些使人力资源规划成为了一项表面上科学客观、以数据为依据，但实际上却主要依靠决策者管理直觉的人力资源管理工作。因此，企业的人力资源管理对于经营生产、财务目标、产业发展规划乃至战略行为来说大多只是间接上的、辅助性的影响，即便大多管理者都认同“人力资源”是企业发展的“第一资源”。 针对这一问题，本文通过对人力资源规划中的需求预测进行研究，以“人均利润指标”为视角，试图依靠人力资源及其相关因素，“直接解读”劳动力配置合理性并建立人力资源管理与企业经营管理直接联系。具体方法是通过建立“基于人均利润的无差异曲线模型”实现对人力资源的需求预测与分析，并在辅助模型“基于人均利润的四象限分析模型”和“人力资源集约化配置过程中的运筹学Vogel算法”，在“人力资源规划”与“企业经营绩效”之间建立一种可逻辑推演、可指导决策、可量化分析，最终可运用于HR组织决策的研究范式。 全文除绪论和结论外，分为四部分。 第一部分为第二章，主要对人力资源规划的内涵、需求预测中的归回分析预测、灰色系统分析预测方法以及企业经营业绩测量的财务分析方法进行了回顾。 第二部分是第三章，引入了研究对象T港口集团，对其人力资源需求预测的现有方法进行了分析评价，从经济学视角提出了基于“人均利润”指标的人力资源需求预测设想。 第三部分是第四章，提出了基于人均利润的无差异曲线模型和四象限分析模型，研究了模型中人力资源配置与T港口集团企业经营的逻辑关系，对人力资源配置合理性问题进行了模型解释，并分别在无差异曲线模型和四象限模型中讨论了人力资源需求预测与配置合理性等问题。 第四部分是第五、六章，通过实证分析部分，对研究对象的人力资源的需求进行预测，并从运筹学视角对人员增减变动问题进行了补充研究；从模型在人力资源管理实践中的应用进行了讨论。
英文摘要：	Human resource requirement forecasting and analysis is the basis of human resource planning, is the starting point for the management of human resources. However, in practice, human resource requirement forecasting are often delay due to business strategy pyramid hierarchy; requirement forecasting gradually lost the direct link with the strategy and the result of enterprise due to the financial factors, technical factors and the labor factors. These make the human resources planning has become an upper surface of the scientific and objective, data-based, but in fact it mainly relies on intuitive decision-makers management. Therefore, the human resources management for business production, financial goals, as well as strategic development plan for most acts only indirectly on the impact of subsidiarity, even though most managers agree that "human resources" is the development of the "first resource". To solve this problem, the paper through requirement forecasting human resource planning study to "per capita profit targets" for perspective, trying to rely on human resources and its related factors, try to find out the interpretation of reasonable allocation of labor and the establishment of human resource management and business management. The specific method is through the establishment of "indifference curve model based on per capita profit" realization of requirement forecasting and analysis of human resources and auxiliary model "four-quadrant analysis model based on per capita profits" and "human resource intensive configuration process logistics Science Vogel algorithm" in the "human resource planning"and "business performance" to establish a logical deduction and guide decision-making, can be quantified analysis, finally can be applied to the HR organization. Besides the introduction and conclusion, this these is divided into four parts.The first part is the second chapter, the main connotation of human resource planning, requirement forecasting of return analysis and forecast, gray system analysis and prediction methods and financial analysis of business performance measures were reviewed. The second part is the third chapter, introduces the research object T Port Group, were analyzed to evaluate existing methods to forecast requirement for its human resources is proposed based on the human resources needs, "per capita profit" indicators predict conceived from the perspective of economics. The third part is the fourth chapter, made no difference in per capita profit curve model and four-quadrant analysis model to study the logical relationship between human resource allocation and T Port Group business model, a reasonable allocation of human resources issues model to explain and discuss the human resource requirement forecasting and configuration issues such rationality in indifference curve model and the four-quadrant model. The fourth part is the fifth and sixth chapters, through empirical analysis, the demand for the study of human resource forecasting, and conducted additional research personnel changes from changes in operations research perspective on the issue; from the model in human resource management practice applications discussed.
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