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论文编号：	6653
作者编号：	2220120252
上传时间：	2014/12/2 21:05:34
中文题目：	浓海水制盐EPC项目风险管理研究
英文题目：	Crystallization of Concentrated Seawater EPC Project Risk Management
指导老师：	程莉莉
中文关键字：	浓海水制盐　EPC总承包 项目风险管理
英文关键字：	Concentrated Seawater EPC Project Risk Management
中文摘要：	随着中国建设工程项目管理要求及相关的设计体制改革，近年来，工程总承包模式在国内工程建设领域得到了大力推广。很多行业将其首要发包模式考虑工程总承包方式。目前，我国的许多健全完善的设计公司已逐步成长为拥有设计(E) 、采购(P)、施工(C)并集三者业务于一身的综合性工程设计公司。为适应传统制盐业新的发展情况，提高公司自身市场占有率。海晶集团决定利用自身在制盐业设备设备研发、制造、制盐工艺进步、制盐过程管理等的优势资源，责成其下属咨询公司中盐咨询对EPC工程的承包和竞标进行一定的研究。以此提高本公司的行业地位，巩固我公司在制盐行业中的领头羊地位。对EPC工程的承包和经营是相对复杂的过程，需要一系列的经营管理体系予以配套。而EPC工程总承包又存在较大的承包承包风险，在项目管理的过程中，对风险进行管理十分必要，项目的成败一定程度上依赖风险管理水平。因此海晶集团急需建立一套较为完善的风险管理体系。由于海晶集团的EPC工程总包业务刚刚起步。缺乏对于EPC总承包成熟的风险管理经验。为此，确保总承包业务顺利开展，就需要对浓海水制盐类项目的风险进行相应的研究与管理。本文主要对浓海盐水制作项目EPC项目的风险进行分析和研究。力求得出一个较为系统的研究为浓海水制盐类EPC总承包项目的风险及其评价提供方法与工具,同时也为海晶集团其他领域的风险管理工作提供有效经验。 本文以浓海水制盐EPC项目为风险研究的对象，旨在以初步向工程总承包单位转型发展的项目设计单位作为研究视角，针对工程总承包这一新开展的与国际化水平接轨的业务领域，从项目风险角度深入剖析企业尤其是新入行企业开展EPC业务组织架构及管理方面存在的问题。 首先，本文系统性地回顾EPC模式以及风险与风险管理体系的起源与发展，并综合所研读资料大胆推测项目风险管理及EPC模式的发展趋势。 其次，本文对项目背景及独特性进行了深入介绍，旨在说明项目独特性在其风险独特性中的体现，为下文风险识别与分析做好前提准备。 再次，由于本项目的独创性，本文拟选用专家调查法对浓海水制盐EPC项目在总承包过程中总承包方所承担的各类风险因素进行识别，并根据专家意见对其进行权重排序，运用层次分析法对所识别出的十七类风险建立出科学合理的评价指标体系指标体系的建立。 最后，本文针对评价指标体系的同时，也考虑到本项目评价结果的模糊属性，采取模糊综合评价法对上述得出的评价指标体系进行模糊综合评价，针对评价情况，对十七类风险尤其是组织风险与管理风险突出的问题，分别作出相应的风险应对措施，综合措施实施一年后的项目相关情况，运用相同的评价方法与指标体系对一年后的项目情况进行了风险再评价，根据再评价结果显示，上述风险应对措施有效，项目风险由中度风险转变为低风险。 本文主要研究了项目风险管理及EPC承包模式下的风险评价与风险管理，并采取专家调查法对浓海水制盐类EPC项目的风险进行了识别，并依照专家意见识别出十七种影响项目既定目标实现的风险因素。对于这十七种风险因素采用了层次分析法建立了风险评价体系，参照专家的判断，计算及确定个风险因素影响的权重。从结果来看，管理类风险对项目整体的影响最大，设计类风险影响最小；各风险中，组织风险权重最大，设计审核风险影响最小，本结果也与浓海水制盐类EPC项目一般以设计单位作为总包的主体情况较为符合。故此，我们可以判定此评价体系及权重能够反映浓海水制盐类EPC项目的风险特征，可作为评判的标准与工具。 通过本文的研究，为海晶集团以及下属设计院中盐咨询浓海水制盐类及EPC总承包类项目的风险管理提供评价方法与应对措施，也为公司项目管理工作提供了参考。在本文结尾的部分作出了相应的总结的同时也指出了研究工作的不足，并从项目组织架构、项目管理等方面对公司作出了相应的展望与建议。 与此同时，本文由于种种原因也存在着一下几点不足： 首先，由于项目属于海晶集团首个EPC项目，鉴于实践及资料的不足，本文的研究仅针对项目内部风险，对于政治、社会、经济形势等外部风险研究较少，而外部风险对项目也对项目既定目标的实现有着一定程度的影响，随着后续项目实践经验的增加，需对外部因素进行深入研究。 其次，研究中对于风险识别的专家调查法，由于公司专家库刚刚成立以及遵循对业主保密的相关原则，专家数量较少，且权威程度只能达到国内领先的水平，对于项目目标市场的竞争对手所采取的国际工程公司而言，仍显得不够专业。 再次，本文截稿之时，项目尚未建设完成，因此本文在项目再评价时所采用的相关数据并不能全部代表项目最终结果，只是风险应对措施实施完成后的一年内所取得的效果，仅具有较高的代表性。
英文摘要：	As China's construction engineering project management requirements and the related design system reform, in recent years, the engineering general contracting mode has been heavily promoted in the field of domestic engineering construction. Many industries will be the first contract model considering engineering general contracting mode. At present, our country many of the sound design company has gradually grown to have design (E), purchasing (P), construction (C) and combination of business in one comprehensive engineering design company. In order to adapt to the traditional time the new development situation, improve the market share of their own company. Sea crystal group decided to use its own equipment research and development, manufacturing, and salt in time the technology progress, salt production process management, such as the advantages of resources, instruct its salt in the consulting company the contracting and consulting for EPC bidding must be studied. In order to improve the company's industry status, consolidate our company in the leading position in the salt industry. EPC project total package by Yu Haijing group business has just started. For lack of EPC general contracting mature risk management experience. Therefore, to ensure smooth conduct general contracting business, you need to thick sea salt class corresponding research and management for the project risk. This article mainly discusses the strong sea salt water to make project EPC project risk analysis and research. To get a strong sea salt for a systematic research on the EPC general contracting project risk, and their evaluation methods and tools, as well as the other crystal group in the field of risk management to provide effective experience. This thesis based on .Concentrated Seawater EPC project risk research object, aimed at to engineering general contracting unit with the preliminary transformation project design unit as the research Angle of view of development, in view of the engineering general contracting to integrate with the internationalization level, carried out the new business areas, from the Angle of project risk enterprises, especially the new entrants to carry out deep insight into the EPC business organization structure and management problems. First, this thesis systematically reviews the EPC mode and the origin and development of risk and risk management system, and comprehensive study data assume that project risk management and the development trend of EPC mode. Secondly, this thesis carried on the thorough introduction project background and uniqueness, accounts for the project of uniqueness in his unique risk, for risk identification and analysis of well below the premise. Again, due to the originality of this project, the thesis selects the expert investigation method of concentrated seawater salt production process of the project in general contracting of EPC general contractor of all kinds of risk factors for identification, and according to the expert advice on the weight sorting, by using the analytic hierarchy process (ahp) to identify 17 types of risk to establish a scientific and reasonable index system of evaluation index system is established in this thesis. Finally, this article in view of the evaluation index system at the same time, also considering the fuzzy attributes the project evaluation results, the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the evaluation index system, evaluation, risk of 17 class especially the problem of risk and management risk is prominent, respectively to make corresponding measures to deal with risks, comprehensive measures one year after the implementation of project related situation, using the same evaluation method and index system for one year after the project situation to carry on the risk evaluation, again according to the evaluation results showed that the risk response effectively, project risk by moderate risk into low risk. This thesis mainly studies the project risk management and risk assessment and risk management of EPC contract mode, and take the expert investigation method of concentrated seawater salt type of EPC project risk identification, and 17, according to the experts to identify the risk factors impacting the project goals to achieve. Risk factors for the 17 kinds of used the analytic hierarchy process (ahp) to establish the risk assessment system, consult the expert's judgment, calculate and determine the weight of risk factors. From the results, risk management class biggest influence of the whole project, design class risk minimal impact; The risk, the largest risk weighting, design audit risk is minimal impact, this result also with strong sea salt type of EPC project general design units as the main body of the contractor to conform to. Therefore, we can determine the evaluation system and the weight can reflect strong sea salt kind of EPC project risk characteristics, can be used as evaluation standards and tools. Through the study of this article, for the crystal group service strong sea salt and salt in the subordinate design institute and EPC general contracting project risk management evaluation methods and countermeasures, and project management work provides the reference for the company. In part at the end of this article made the corresponding summary also points out the shortages of the research work, and from the perspectives of project organization structure, project management, make some prospects and Suggestions to the company. At the same time, this article also exists some shortage for a variety of reasons: First, since the project belongs to the first EPC project Yu Haijing group, given the lack of practice and data, this thesis studies internal risk only for projects, and for politics, society, economy and other external risk study is less, and external risk of the project is the realization of the goals of the project has a certain degree of influence, with the increase of the follow-up project practice experience, to conduct the thorough research to the external factors. Second, the study of risk identification expert investigation method, expert database has just set up of the company and follow the relevant confidentiality to owners and experts quantity is less, and the degree of authority can only reach the leading domestic level, to the project target market competition of international engineering companies, still less professional. Again, this thesis deadline, the project has not been completed, so this thesis in project evaluation of relevant data and can not represent final project as a result, all only after implementing the risk response the effect obtained within a year, only has the high representative.
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