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论文编号：	640
作者编号：	2120062100
上传时间：	2008/6/20 9:57:02
中文题目：	我国电信运营商企业价值评估模型
英文题目：	Research on evaluation of tele
指导老师：	戚安邦
中文关键字：	企业价值 现金流 电信运营tl
英文关键字：	Enterprise value Cash flow T
中文摘要：	本文以我国电信运营商的企业价值评估为研究对象，针对我国四大主要电信运营商均为上市公司，并购业务以股权并购为主要方式的特点，结合我国对电信业并购方面的法律环境和电信业资产评估的特殊性，确定了以股权现金流折现模型为基础评估我国电信运营商企业价值的模型，最后通过中国联通A股公司企业价值评估案例验证模型的有效性和适用性。 结合计算机技术和通讯技术的发展以及兑现WTO入世承诺开放我国电信行业的趋势，本文对我国电信运营行业及其并购业务发展现状和趋势进行了综述；与此同时，本文对并购的含义及并购的动因进行了理论梳理；在对企业价值评估理论的发展和研究现状进行综述的基础上，对目前理论和实践中常用的企业价值评估方法进行了理论阐述和比较，并探讨了其应用于本研究对象的适用性。 本文对我国电信运营商并购业务的法律政策环境分三个层次进行了特殊性分析：宏观政策，入世政策以及电信行业具体条例。在法律政策的特殊背景下对我国电信运营商企业价值评估的独特性进行了三个方面的分析：我国电信运营商并购动因的特殊性分析，我国电信运营商资产价值的特殊性分析以及我国电信运营商企业价值评估方法的独特性分析。独特性分析为选取我国电信运营商的企业价值评估模型奠定了基础。 本文重点分析比较了四种企业价值评估模型，选取了股权现金流折现模型作为模型的基础形式，结合我国电信运营商并购业务企业价值评估的独特性分析，选取两阶段折现模型作为模型的基本形式。在此基础上，研究了模型四个参数的确定方法，得到了适用于我国电信运营商企业价值评估模型的参数预测方法。最后利用财务数据作支持评估出中国联通A股公司的企业价值，并进行了案例剖析以验证模型的有效性。
英文摘要：	The paper is focus on the evaluation of telecom operation companies in China. Because main telecom operation companies are all listed companies in our capital market and purchase of shares is the main way in merge and acquisition of telecom operation companies in China, we conclude that free cash for equity model is chosen to be used in evaluating the telecom operation companies in China based the restricted laws in telecom industry and particularity of telecom operation companies’ asset. Then we modify the model and use a case to testify the validity of the model. As the development of computer and telecom technology and the openness of our telecom industry, the paper summarizes the situation and tendency of our telecom industry and its merge and acquisition operations. The paper also summarizes the development and situation of merge and acquisition theory, evaluation of enterprise theory. And also introduces and compares all kinds of models to evaluate enterprises. Then discuss how they apply for different situation. The paper analyzes the particularity of law background in three levels: macroscopic polices, promises of taking part in WTO and detailed byelaw of telecom industry. Then we analyze the particularity of evaluation methods of telecom industry in three aspects: the motivation of merge and acquisition of telecom industry, the value of telecom companies’ assets and methods of evaluation of telecom industry. Particularity analysis lays the foundation for chosing evaluation model of telecom companies in China. The paper mainly analyzes the four enterprise evaluation models. Considering the particularity of law background and the particularity of evaluation methods of telecom industry, free cash for equity model is determined to be used as the basic model. Base on this, the paper focuses on choosing parameters of the model and finally uses available data to analyze the case of China Unicom to testify the validity of the model.
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