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论文编号：	6323
作者编号：	2120122594
上传时间：	2014/6/8 1:18:40
中文题目：	基于经济周期的公司长期投资行为研究——来自中国上市制造业公司的实证分析
英文题目：	Research on the investment behavior of enterprises based on the economic cycle
指导老师：	黄福广
中文关键字：	经济周期；长期投资；三机制内部阶段；投资特征
英文关键字：	economic recycle;long-term investment;three-stage period;investment characteristic
中文摘要：	经济周期会对公司的长期投资行为产生影响已在学术界产生共识。但是学者们将研究的重点都放在了经济周期对社会总体投资的影响上，并没有深入到一个行业具体分析经济周期到底会对长期资本性投资规模产生怎样的影响。本文结合最近一轮经济周期对制造业企业投资特征进行分析，具有一定的创新价值和研究意义。 本文引入经济周期这一影响因素，在不同的经济周期阶段研究企业投资行为。首先对有关经济周期和公司长期投资行为的理论进行了疏理和回顾，奠定了理论基础；其次从宏观微观以及经济不确定性影响因素入手，理论上对经济周期影响公司长期投资行为做出分析并提出研究假设；其次以加速数理论为基础，选取变量建立了回归模型；通过对经济周期内部阶段的划分，对总体样本和子样本进行分别的单变量相关性检验和多元回归分析，在此基础上得出结论证实了假设的合理性。 本文通过理论分析和实证检验得出以下结论：第一，经济周期确实会对公司长期投资行为产生显著的影响，但是总体样本多元回归会得出公司长期资本性投资规模逆周期的结论。第二，经济周期内部不同阶段对公司投资规模影响方向不同。在恢复阶段和紧缩阶段公司长期投资规模呈现顺周期特征，即随着经济增长率的上升下降呈现同方向变动；而在经济扩张时期呈现逆周期特征，即随着经济增长率的上升而缩小投资规模。 关键词：经济周期；长期投资；三机制内部阶段；投资特征
英文摘要：	It has been consensus in academic that the economic cycle affects the companies’ long-term investment behavior. But scholars focused on the effects of economic cycle on the social overall investment, not on a specific industry to analysis what kind of effect will the economic cycle has on the companies’ long-term investment scale. In this paper, combined with the latest economic recycle, we analysis the characteristics of the manufacturing enterprise long-term investment. This research has an innovation value and a significance. This article introduces different stages of the economic cycle to research enterprise investment behavior. First of all, review the theory about the economic recycle and the enterprise long-term investment behavior, laying a theoretical foundation. Secondly from the factors of uncertainty of microscopic and macroscopic economy, this paper analysis the theory of economic cycle affecting the company's long-term investment behavior to put forward research hypothesis. Thirdly on the speed up the number theory, the paper selects variables to establish the regression model; Through the internal economic cycle, divided into the overall sample and subsample respectively single variable correlation test and multiple regression analysis, on the basis of the conclusion proved the rationality of the hypothesis. In this paper, through theoretical analysis and empirical test we get the following conclusion: First, the economic cycle really would have a significant impact on the company's long-term investment behavior. Second, the internal economic cycle different stage investment scale affect the company in a different direction. In the recovery phase and contraction phase company long-term investment scale presents the pro-cyclical characteristics, namely with the up and down of the economic growth to present the same changes; In the period of economic expansion has counter-cyclical characteristics, namely as the rising rate of economic growth and to reduce the scale of investment. Key words: economic recycle; long-term investment; three-stage period; investment characteristic
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