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论文编号：	6206
作者编号：	2120122517
上传时间：	2014/6/5 21:05:52
中文题目：	基于系统动力学的非常规突发事件链演化机理研究——以日本核泄漏导致中国抢盐事件为例
英文题目：	The Study on the evolution of Unconventional Emergence chain based on System Dynamics : A Case of Japan’s nuclear leak caused China’s rob salt event
指导老师：	李勇建
中文关键字：	非常规突发事件链；演化机理；结构化描述；系统动力学
英文关键字：	Unconventional Emergency Chain; Evolutionary Mechanism; Structural Description; System Dynamics
中文摘要：	近年来，频繁发生的非常规突发事件给人类带来了非常严重的破坏性后果。非常规突发事件是突发事件的一类，它具有发生频率低，破坏性严重的特点。非常规突发事件的演化规律往往更难把握，并且极易引发各种次生衍生事件，形成非常规突发事件链，造成的危害更加复杂，致使应对更加困难。对这类非常规突发事件及其次生衍生事件，人们往往由于没有经验而缺乏预见和应对的能力，应对时常常手足无措，遭受的损失往往更为巨大，因此，研究非常规突发事件链非常重要。掌握非常规突发事件链的演化规律、内在机理能够有效地帮助我们做出应急决策，最大程度上降低非常规突发事件链的发生可能带来的人员伤亡以及财产损失，并减少其对社会秩序的影响。 本文在回顾了相关文献的基础上，分析了事件链的系统构成及演化动力。为了更好地揭示事件链的演化机理，在结合本课题组成员研究成果的基础上，本文借助结构化描述的方法构建了突发事件链演化分析框架，从属性的层面揭示了事件链中事件的相互作用关系。 接下来，本文以日本核泄漏导致中国抢盐事件为例对所提出的突发事件链演化分析框架进行验证并使用系统动力学工具对该事件链进行了演化过程仿真。本文首先梳理了整个事件链的基本演化过程，在分别对事件链中的事件进行结构化描述的基础上构建了“核泄漏—抢盐”事件链的演化分析图，验证了所提出的演化分析框架。接下来，本文在此基础上使用系统动力学工具构建了该事件链系统的因果图及流图，并结合收集到的数据对系统进行数值仿真，根据仿真分析提出了一些决策建议。
英文摘要：	In recent years, frequent unconventional emergencies brought human serious devastating consequences. Unconventional emergency is a kind of unexpected event, it has the characteristics of low frequency and devastating consequences, the evolvement law of it is difficult to master, and unconventional emergencies are easy to cause various secondary derivative events, forming an unconventional emergency chain, which cause more complicated damage and make it more difficult to deal with. For this kind of unconventional emergency chain, people are difficult to response due to lack of experience, often resulting a huge loss at last. Therefore, the study of unconventional emergency chain has a very important practical significance. Grasping the evolutionary mechanism of unconventional emergency chain can effectively help us make emergency decisions and reduce the damage the unconventional emergency chain can bring to us. Based on the review of related literatures, we analyze the emergency chain’s system composition and evolutionary dynamics. In order to reveal its evolutionary mechanism, based on the research results found by our project group members, we construct an evolutionary analytical framework in the view of attributes by applying structural description of emergency, which also reveals the mutual interaction relationships of events in the emergency chain. We use the Japan’s nuclear leak caused China’s rob salt event as an example, review its basic evolutionary process and build a “nuclear leak — rob salt” evolutionary map by using structural description to verify the proposed evolutionary analytical framework. Then we constructs a causal diagram and flow diagram for it on the basis of system dynamics tools, combines with the data collected for simulation, puts forward some policy recommendations based on simulation analysis.
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