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论文编号：	6193
作者编号：	2220120275
上传时间：	2014/6/5 15:02:26
中文题目：	天津津能投资公司新能源项目 风险评估方法研究
英文题目：	Tianjin Jinneng Investment Company new energy projects risk evaluation methods study
指导老师：	戚安邦
中文关键字：	新能源项目；风险评估；方法研究
英文关键字：	new energy projects; risk evaluation; methods study
中文摘要：	在面对日趋严重的化石能源危机以及环境污染问题，大力发展新能源成为我国解决这些突出问题的主要办法。天津作为我国经济发展的热点地区，与全国一样面临资源与环境问题，定位于保障地方能源供应以及能源项目投融资平台的——天津津能投资公司，已将新能源的开发作为公司重要发展战略之一。尽管近年来在新能源应用上得到了快速增长，但新能源项目中普遍所存在的政策、技术、管理等风险依然不容忽视，天津津能投资公司亟待依据其独特性建立起对新能源项目的风险评估体系，以对今后公司在新能源项目风险评估以及风险管理上起到帮助。本论文作者对大量的相关的基础理论文献进行了研究，研究的文献主要包括有关项目的风险管理，风险评估的理论与方法，层次分析法与模糊综合分析法的应用等内容，这为作者理清本文整体研究思路以及对研究工具的选择奠定基础；作者总结了国内外新能源的应用现状，采用文献与调查研究相结合方法完成津能投资公司新能源项目独特性分析，继而运用专家调查法较为完整地对新能源项目风险因素进行了识别，建立了三个层级的新能源风险指标体系；运用层次分析法为研究工具完成新能源项目风险指标权重值的确定，运用模糊综合分析法为研究工具完成新能源项目风险评估值的确定，从而初步搭建了津能投资公司新能源项目风险评估的方法模型，最后本文作者还使用此方法模型对某地能应用项目的进行了案例研究。本论文中的主要研究成果，一是对现阶段新能源应用项目普遍涉及的风险因素较为全面地进行了分析识别，搭建了对于津能投资公司具有较强适用性的新能源项目风险指标体系；二是综合运用与新能源风险指标因素模糊性特性相适应的层次分析与模糊综合分析为研究工具，搭建了对于津能投资公司的新能源项目风险评估的方法模型。
英文摘要：	In the face of fossil energy crisis and environmental pollution problems, vigorous expansions of new energy become the main solution for these problems in our country. Tianjin as China's economic development hotspots has these same problems too, and Tianjin Jinneng Investment Company as the financing platform for the protection of the local energy supply and energy project investment, has already made the development of the new energy as one of the important strategy of the company. Although the application of new energy has been rapid growth in recent years, the risks in new energy project such as the policy, technology and manage etc still cannot be ignored. Tianjin Jinneng Investment Company will establish the risk assessment system for the new energy project depends on its uniqueness, which is helpful for the new energy risk assessment and risk management in future. The author of this thesis researched a large number of related basic documents; include risk management of the related projects, the theory and methods of the risk assessment, the application of AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Analysis Method etc. It laid the foundation for the overall research ideas of this sort out the author of this paper is to study and select tools. And the author conclude the current status of the application of the new energy in domestic and foreign, and finish the analysis of the uniqueness of Tianjin Jinneng Investment Company new energy project by studying documents and researches. Then use a more complete survey of experts on new energy projects to identify the risk factors, and establish new energy risk index system in three levels. Use fuzzy comprehensive analysis of new energy projects completed risk assessments. Thus initially built a model for risk assessment of new energy projects in Tianjin Jinneng Investment Company. As last the author use the model to research the project The main results of this paper are, to analysis the risks in the current application of the new energy, and establish a suitable new energy risk assessment system for Tianjin Jinneng Investment Company, and the other is use AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Analysis as tools for research the new energy risk index factors characteristic ambiguity, to built a model for risk assessment of new energy project in Tianjin Jinneng Investment Company.
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