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论文编号：	6185
作者编号：	2220100584
上传时间：	2014/6/5 13:22:06
中文题目：	天津电力建设公司火电施工项目风险管理研究
英文题目：	Research on Risk Management of Thermal Power Construction Project in Tianjin electric power construction company
指导老师：	安立平
中文关键字：	火电施工，风险管理，风险识别，风险控制
英文关键字：	Thermal power construction, Risk management, Risk identification，Risk control
中文摘要：	进入21世纪以来，国内火电市场投资出现井喷局面，“十二五”期间随着国家经济政策的调整，东部地区火电投资不断下降，中西部地区火电开发投资快速发展，国家对西部地区出台了一系列的优惠政策，开发西部是大势所趋。由于火电施工项目周期较长，专业技术复杂，各种制约因素较多，涉及的环境因素影响较大，影响工程进展及最终经济效益的不确定因素具有较大的不可预见性和随即性，使火电施工项目存在着较大的风险。因此，对火电施工项目风险评估及指标体系研究具有非常重要的意义。我们利用现代项目管理中的风险管理理论，可以很好的分析当前火电施工市场的现状和火电施工项目所面临的困难，为火电施工企业成功实现现代项目管理提供指导和借鉴。论文对火电厂施工项目中的风险识别、风险评价、风险处理中的风险管理方法进行了研究，通过对项目风险管理理论的梳理、分类和识别项目不确定性，在此基础上不断弥补信息缺口，对项目风险带来的威胁和机会统一管理，可以有效地改变传统项目风险管理面向项目风险后果的被动管理的弊端，使项目风险管理由原来被动地应对和管理项目风险后果转变为主动的增加项目价值式的管理。本论文引述了项目风险管理的相关理论，分析了国内火电施工市场的特点，在总结以往案例的基础上对国内火电施工项目所面临的风险进行了识别，得到火电施工项目风险体系，并以风险发生概率、风险带来的损失和收益和为指标建立了国内火电施工项目的风险应对方案。本文重点对识别出的火电施工项目风险进行了度量，在风险发生概率的定量分析中主要采用了案例分析法和专家调查法，作者收集了火电施工项目案例并进行统计分析，得到案例中各类风险发生的概率，再利用专家调查表收集业内专家的意见并进行分析，得出专家预测的各类风险发生概率，再对两者进行加权平均得到火电施工项目风险发生的概率；然后，依据专家意见调查表反馈意见对风险的影响后果进行了界定，量化了火电施工项目风险因素的影响程度，在量化以上两个指标的基础上最终得到国内火电施工项目的风险等级。在此基础上，建立了火电施工项目风险应对方案流程，并制定了应对火电施工项目投标、合同签订、项目相关方、项目管理等各种风险应采取的措施。本文以天津电建新疆准东项目风险管理为例进行风险管理研究，制定出一个适于国内火电施工项目风险管理的办法，利用该公司“异地复制”的管理模式，进而对该公司其他地区的项目产生一定的借鉴意义。
英文摘要：	Since enter the 21st century, Chinese investment in thermal power market is explosive growth. With the adjustment of Chinese economic policy during “twelve five” period, the thermal power investment market in Eastern region is continued decline, while the market in Midwest is rapid increase. As the series　of incentives policies is implemented in the West, the western development is the coming trend. While the most of construction companies of thermal power engineering lack experience of Xinxiang’s construction, Moreover Xinxiang’s regional climate and social resource have a great impact on construction progress. In order to achieve expected results, the outback construction experience is not enough, it must depend on the comprehensive study and careful identifications to all kinds construction risks. This thesis make researches on risk identification、risk assessment and risk management in construction schedule control of thermal power boiler. By the pectination and classification of project risk management theory, identification of project uncertainty, and on those basis continue to make up information gap, unified threats and opportunities those brought about by the project risk. Those researches can effectively change the abuse of passive management that traditional project risk management faced with the consequences of project risks, and change the project risk management from the previously passive response and manage project risk consequences to increase the value of project initiatively. This thesis introduces the relative theory of project risk management and analyzes the characteristics of the domestic thermal power construction market, identify risk which faces to the domestic thermal power plant construction project on the basis of the former case of recognition, get the thermal power construction project risk system, establish risk response plan in domestic thermal power plant construction project by the indicators of Probabilistic risk and summation of profit and loss caused by the risk. This thesis focuse on the risk measure to thermal power plant construction project, the method of case analysis and expert investigation method is mainly adopted in the quantitative analysis of risk probability. The author collected the thermal power construction project case and statistical analysis, Got the probability of occurrence of various risks in the case, moreover collected and analyzed the opinion by expert survey, got the probability of occurrence of various types of risks that experts predict. then got the probability of the risk occurrence of thermal power construction project by the method of the weighted average of the both thing . Based on expert opinion survey’s feedback, defined risk consequences influence, quantified the degree of thermal power construction project risk factors. Finally based on the above two quantitative indicators, got the domestic thermal power construction project risk level. On this basis, the thermal power construction project risk response plan process, and developed a variety of risk response of thermal power construction project bidding, contract signing, project stakeholders, project management and other measures to be taken. This thesis makes researches on risk management by example of risk management in Xinjiang Zhundong project. Through several kinds of commonly used risk management methods of comparative study, work out a suitable for domestic thermal power construction project risk management, the company of the "copy" of foreign management model, and then to my company produce certain reference significance in other parts of the project.
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