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论文编号：	6172
作者编号：	2220110414
上传时间：	2014/6/5 11:02:48
中文题目：	巴西TAV高铁项目风险管理研究
英文题目：	Research on Risk Management of Brazil TAV High-speed Railway project
指导老师：	王迎军
中文关键字：	海外投资项目 高速铁路 PPP模式 风险管理
英文关键字：	overseas investment project of high-speed railway ,PPP mode ,risk management
中文摘要：	自21世纪初我国启动“走出去”战略以来，已经有一大批具有优势的行业、企业开展了海外投资战略，带动了商品、技术和劳务出口，打造出一批有实力的知名品牌和跨国企业。“走出去”战略已经成为我国对外开发新阶段的重大战略举措，有力推动了我国全面参与国际竞争与合作的进程，推动了对外开放的持续健康发展。这个过程中，我国高铁事业成功实现了从“引进来”到“走出去”的跨越发展，巴西TAV高铁是我国高铁“走出去”战略的重要前期项目，项目采用PPP模式建设，由中国组成融资、设计、建造、装备、运营和维护联合体，项目投资大、周期长，面临的风险巨大。利用成熟的风险管理理论对海外高铁项目进行全面风险管理研究显得尤为重要。本论文利用风险理论、项目风险管理理论，对海外投资风险和PPP模式风险特征进行分析，得出风险分析的主要对象。结合巴西TAV高铁项目前期决策过程，对项目的主要风险类型进行识别，并给出项目风险清单。之后采用德尔菲法、专家访谈法对项目实施过程中的风险概率和危害程度进行评估，进而得出风险重要性结论。在此基础上，提出了相应的风险应对措施。
英文摘要：	Since the start of "going out" strategy in China in the 21st century, there has been a lot of industries and enterprises with advantages carrying out overseas investment strategy, stimulating the export of the goods, technology and services, meanwhile, creating a group of powerful brands and multinational companies. Strategy of "going out" has become a major strategic for the new stage of development in our country, accelerating the process of our full participation in international competition and cooperation, promoting the sustainable and healthy development of opening to the outside world. China's high-speed railway has succeeded with the achievement changing from the " bringing in" to the "going out" spanning development, Brazil TAV high-speed railway is our important early stage project of the strategy of "going out" ,which adopted the PPP mode, consisting of Chinese finance, design, construction, equipment, operation and maintenance of the consortium , facing the huge risk of the big project investment and long cycle. It is obviously important to use the theory of mature risk management of overseas project to conduct a comprehensive risk management research . This paper analyzing the overseas investment risks and the PPP mode risk characteristics on the basis of the risk theory, project risk management theory, making a conclusion of the main object of the risk analysis. Combining with the early stage of Brazil high-speed railway project decision-making process, the paper identifies the main risk types and obtains the project risk list, then evaluates the risk probability and harm degree in the process of project implemention with the Delphi method, expert interview method, thus reaching the risk significance conclusion. Based on this, the paper puts forward the corresponding risk response.
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