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论文编号：	6166
作者编号：	2120123137
上传时间：	2014/6/5 8:09:43
中文题目：	我国建筑施工企业苏丹项目风险管理研究
英文题目：	Project Risk Management Study on China
指导老师：	林润辉
中文关键字：	苏丹项目 建筑施工企业 风险管理 境外 风险控制 风险预防
英文关键字：	Sudan project constriction enterprise risk management overseas risk control risk prevention
中文摘要：	首先，本文对国内外针对项目风险管理对相关理论进行综述，介绍了风险管理过程中风险辨识、风险度量、风险的分类、风险管理的常用方法和风险管理的过程等基本理论，并把这些理论和方法应用到本论文的的写作当中，使论文的写作条理更加清晰，做到有理有据。 其次，在相关理论的基础上，对苏丹国的自然环境、政治环境、经济环境和社会环境等潜在的风险源进行客观地介绍，在对各种环境介绍的过程中重点强调与我国常见环境不同之处，强调我国建筑施工企业不常遇见或者容易忽视的环节，并挖掘出其中能够导致建筑施工项目风险发生的因素，也就是风险源，并且对该潜在风险源进行分析和评价，评估出其发生的概率和危害程度，然后针对这些危险源提出应对措施，从而达到使准备进入苏丹但对苏丹的各种环境还不熟悉的建筑施工企业最大限度地避免或者降低由以上风险源导致的各种风险的目的。 本文分别以苏丹各种环境和建筑施工企业的行业特点为主线对苏丹项目实施过程中的风险进行了系统的分类和评价，尽量做到了对各种环境全面覆盖，风险分析和度量尽量符合实际，案例尽量能够充分反应风险的客观存在和危害程度，提出的预防措施和处理方法也尽量做到了符合苏丹法律法规和行业环境特点。由于本文所介绍的苏丹环境为近期的现状，相对以前的资料文献而言更客观、更符合当今的实际，因为像苏丹这样的政治局势相对不稳定的国家，其经济环境、政治环境每天都在发生着不同程度的变化，而且变化幅度很大，有可能在一个项目的实施周期内其税收、汇率或者劳工政策就会出现几次变化，所以在这样的国度里,从事实施周期相对较长的建筑施工项目要对各种环境的变化实施不间断的跟踪和分析，决不可以某一个资料或者某一个时点取得的信息作为绝对的判别依据，在信息取得上要做到与时俱进，重点评估信息的时效性和真实性。 根据中国驻苏丹商务参赞处提供的每年造成人员伤亡事故的原因和所占比例的统计数据，将近十年来给在苏丹中资建筑施工企业造成实际损失的风险种类进行归类和对比，将常见的风险按照一定的分类方法进行系统的分类整理，阐述风险形成的原因和特点，找出针对人员伤亡、经济损失、施工管理等不同方面的风险性质和这些风险产生的原因、避免的难度和可能性，然后逐步分析所构成的风险和该风险已经或者有可能给施工项目实施过程造成的实际损失的案例，案例有发生在苏丹的，也有发生在其他国家但是性质类似的、能够反应相应风险性质的典型案例。在分析了相应的风险后，结合苏丹各种特定的影响因素，给出合理预防风险发生和在风险发生时最大限度地避免损失的参考意见，最终达到规避或者转移风险的目的。 随着项目管理的科学化、信息化、国际化建设步伐的加快，项目风险管理在现代的项目管理中的地位已经逐渐提升，各领域的企业，尤其是参与国际项目的企业对项目风险的重视程度和理解的深度也在日益加深，对风险预防、控制、管理的投入也在增加，对风险管理的工作也更加规范。但在我国对外投资合作行业快速发展、国际政治经济格局复杂多变、传统的与新生的安全风险因素共存的国际工程承包环境下，许多中资公司，甚至国字号央企在内也是由于对项目风险的危害程度依然不够重视、认识不够清晰、判断不够准确，导致折戟海外建筑市场的例子不断出现，这说明我们国家的项目风险管理工作与国际先进的管理理念和理论还有一定的差距，我们对外工程承包企业在风险管理方面还有很大的提升空间，还需要进一步与国际先进的管理理念接轨，提高对风险管理的重视程度，提升项目管理的总体实力和国际竞争力，方能适应复杂多变的国际环境，风险管理规范了、全面了，抵御风险的能力也就自然增强了，在国际建筑市场上的竞争力也就增强了，这就出现了管理越好，盈利能力越强，竞争力也就越强的良性循环。 本文虽然只是以建筑施工企业在苏丹这个特定的国家、特定的自然环境、政治环境、经济环境和人文宗教文化背景下的风险研究，但从自然环境或者宗教文化方面讲，非洲或者其他临近很多国家都有类似的情况，如苏丹的邻国埃及、乍得等均以沙漠的地理气候环境居多；周边的肯尼亚、埃塞俄比亚、厄特厄利亚等国家的的穆斯林宗教背景都很相似；利比亚、叙利亚、马里等非洲国家也都有相似的、相对不稳定的政治局势；波兰、墨西哥等国家对当地就业保护非常严格，对他国劳务人员进入其市场的条件和数量限制苛刻等等。虽然，我们实施或即将实施的建筑工程项目所在的国别可能不同，但在不同国别内部相同的环境下所面临的风险具有共同的属性，针对这些风险的预防和处置的方法可以互相借鉴并采用。所以，本文对苏丹国之外的建筑相关企业也具有一定的参考意义。 从建筑工程项目实施的技术角度讲，随着建筑工程管理的国际化，FIDIC合同条款和相关管理规范被很多国家使用，并且已经成为国际通用的权威性指导文件，涉及建筑施工合同条件、生产设备和设计、设计采购施工（EPC）合同条件等多个领域，有时一个项目的设计、咨询、施工分别由来自不同的国家和地区的企业承担，所以在该行业内无论项目位置在哪里，无论项目规模的大与小，无论项目由谁来实施、有谁来监理，其操作模式或者管理过程都具有行业本身的相似性和互通行，而且随着国际技术交流的日趋频繁、国际行业内的接轨更加紧密，这种相似性也会更加明显，也就是说将来的国际建筑工程项目管理将更加规范化、国际化、标准化。所以，本文对任何国别的建筑施工项目在实施过程中的风险管理也具有一定的参考意义。
英文摘要：	Firstly, this paper gives an overview of related theories of project risk management, and introduces such basic theories as risk identification, risk measure, risk classification, conventional methods and process of risk management during the process of risk management, and applies these theories and methods into this paper, which makes a clear writing level, makes it reasonable and convincing. Secondly, on the basis of related theories, this paper gives an objective introduction of potential risk sources in natural, political and economic environment of Sudan, which emphasizes the difference with China common environment during the process of introduction, and the segments which china construction enterprise seldom meet or easy to ignore, finds factors which will lead to risks (that is risk sources) for the implementation of construction project, then analyzes and evaluates potential risk sources which found, estimates its probability of occurrence and hazard levels, and brings forward countermeasures according to risk sources, so as the construction enterprises, which is going to enter Sudan market but is not familiar with Sudan, could avoid or reduce risks which caused by the above mentioned risk sources at the most. Taking various environment and construction implementation enterprises as the main line, this paper gives systematic classification and evaluation to the risks occurred during project implementation in Sudan, tries to cover various environment as far as possible, makes risk analysis and measurement conform to actual situation, cases reflect the objective occurrence and extent of injury, preventive measures and processing method presented in conformity with law, regulation and industry environment of Sudan. The environment of Sudan introduced in this paper is current situation, which will be more objective and more in line with current reality compared to previous literature, as a country like Sudan whose political situation is not stable, and its economic, political environment are changing in different degree every day, and change greatly, it will be possible that its taxation, exchange or labor policy vary several times within the implementation of one project cycle, so in a country like Sudan, it will need continuous following and analysis to the changes of various environment for a construction implementation project with long implementation cycle, the data or information obtained at some point can not be absolute criterion for judgment, we should keep up with times in information acquiring, and assess timeliness and truthfulness of information. According to statistic data of the reason and percentage of personnel casualty accidents which provided by the economic and Commercial Counselor’s office of the Embassy of China in Sudan, this paper classifies and compares the type of risks which caused actual loss to Chinese construction enterprises in Sudan over decades, according to certain classification methods, this paper classifies systematically the common risks, states the reason and characteristics of risks, finds out the nature, reason of risks for casualties, economic loss and construction management, etc., , as well the difficulty and possibility of avoiding, and then, this paper analyzes step by step the risks posed and the cases, which have caused or potentially caused actual loss to construction project by such risks, some cases occurred in Sudan, and some other cases didn’t occur in Sudan but had similar risk nature which will reflect corresponding risk nature. After analyzing corresponding risks, under given specific influence factor, this paper gives reference advice to reasonable risk prevention and maximum loss avoidance when risk occurs, so as to evade or transfer risk. With the speeding up of the construction of scientific, informatization and internationalization of project management, the position of project risk management has been upgraded in modern project management. Every field of enterprise, especially enterprise which takes part in international project, its extent of attention and depth of understanding of project risk is deepening, its input in risk prevention, control and management is increasing, and its management in risk is more standard. But under the circumstances of rapid growth of foreign investment, complex international political and economic pattern, the coexistence of conventional and new risk factors in international contracting, many Chinese enterprises, even some central enterprises didn’t attach more importance to the extent of project risk, didn’t have a clear understanding, didn’t make accurate judgment, and this lead to failure in overseas construction market, which shows we have certain gap with international advanced management concept and theory in project risk management, we need connect to advanced management concept, increase the degree of attention in risk management, promote overall strength and international competitiveness of project management, which can adapt to complex international situation, the standard and overall risk management will increase the ability to resist risks, which will also increase our competitiveness in international market, this appeared that such virtuous cycle as a good management ensures stronger profitability, and in turn stronger competitiveness. Although this paper study risks of construction enterprises in specific country, natural environment, political environment, economic environment, humanistic religious cultural background as Sudan, the natural environment, religious and cultural aspect is similar with some African countries or neighboring countries, such similar desert environment as Egypt, Chad etc.; such similar Muslim religious background as Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea etc.; such similar and unstable political situation as Libya, Syria, Mali, etc.; such rigid local employment protection (which has rigid restriction in access to market and quantities of labor) as Poland, Mexico etc.. Although the construction project we implement or is going to implement is in different countries, there is common property of risks of same internal environment in different countries, the risk prevention and disposal methods can be learned and used. So, this paper will have certain reference significance to construction enterprises outside Sudan. From technical aspects of construction project implementation, as the internationalization of construction project management, FIDIC contract terms and relevant management regulations has been widely used by many countries, and has also become a common international authoritative guidance documents, which covers fields like construction implementation contract terms, production equipment and design, Engineer Procure Construct (EPC) terms etc., sometimes a project is taken by design, consult and construct enterprise from different countries and regions, so, no matter the location, size of project, and no matter who will implement, consult the project, its operating mode or management process has similarity and intercommunity, as more and more frequent international exchanges and closer international industry connection, this similarity will become more and more obvious, that is to say, international construction project management will be more normalized, internationalized and standardized. So, this paper will have certain reference significance to the risks occurred during the implementation of construction project in any country.
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