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论文编号：	6163
作者编号：	2220120248
上传时间：	2014/6/4 17:23:22
中文题目：	印尼A岛火电站BOT项目风险识别与应对研究
英文题目：	The Study on BOT Project Risk Identification and Risk Response for Indonesian Island A Thermal Power Station
指导老师：	于仲鸣
中文关键字：	BOT项目;风险识别;风险应对
英文关键字：	BOT Project; Risk Identification; Risk Response
中文摘要：	摘 要 中国承包商通过近30年发展，在国内工程承包市场积累了丰富的技术经验和项目管理办法。特别是近10年来，许多中央大企业在国内巨额基础设施投资的工程承包市场积累了一定的资金实力；同时中国政府在金融体系方面也逐步建立了境外投资和出口信贷支持方面的专业保险制度、出口退税制度等。有了技术、管理和资金的支持，特别是目前中国政府足额的外汇储备，而世界范围内的金融危机在发达国家蔓延，西方国家在境外投资乏力，给中国承包商前往境外参与建造-拥有-转让(英文为Building-Operate-Transfer，简称BOT)类的特许经营的投资承包工程项目提供了非常好的契机。但中国承包商走出国门，带着中国的技术和资金，开拓境外工程特许经营项目的市场，BOT项目风险识别与应对，尚在起步阶段，这是目前中国承包企业需投入很大精力，研究和学习并消化的课题。 本论文首先对境外工程、BOT项目理论和项目风险管理理论进行了系统的研究和阐述，了解了项目风险识别与应对的基本方法；紧接着对印尼A岛火电站BOT项目概况做了简要介绍，分析了该项目的独特性，特别是中国承包商在境外实施此类项目遇到的特点；在此基础上综合应用在项目管理课程中所学的文献研究法、分析法、SWOT法对该项目风险进行了分析和识别，按照该项目的不同阶段，包括前期阶段、建设阶段、运营阶段对项目各种不同类别和不同层次的风险进行了分类分析，编制了项目风险识别清单；随后，综合应用德尔菲法和损失期望值法对不同阶段的风险进行了评价和度量，给出了风险管理的先后顺序；最后编制出了应对各类风险的具体措施和方法，通过该项目案例已经投入运营了几年之后的实际运行效果反馈对原风险分析进行评价，说明原风险分析方法和风险应对计划基本是有效的。 关键词：BOT项目；风险识别；风险应对
英文摘要：	Abstract In the past three decades, Chinese contractors have accumulated rich experience in technical and project management. Especially in the past ten years, benefiting from domestic huge investment plan by the government, many contractors owned by central government have got so many project contracts and accumulated abundant funds for further development. Furthermore, it has established overseas investment incentive policy, VAT refunding system, and professional insurance system based on the import & export credit. With strong supports from sufficient funding, technical strength and project management, especially the abundant foreign currency reserves accumulated by Chinese government, during the depression period that most western funding is in shortage due to the worldwide financial crisis, it will be the best time for Chinese contractors to develop overseas Build-Own-Operate (BOT) projects. However, due to shortage of basic knowledge, procedures in BOT Project Risk Identification and Risk Response, it is one of the most important topics for Chinese contractors to study and research with great efforts. This thesis has conducted the comprehensive research on the overseas project theory, BOT Project theory, and project risks and got the basic knowledge of Risk Identification and Risk Response. Then it introduces the background of the Indonesian Island A Thermal Power Station Project undertaken on BOT basis. Analyze the unique features of this project, especially it is an overseas concession projects for Chinese contractor. Based on which, it conducts comprehensive application of the literature analysis method and SWOT method for Risk Identification. Accordingly, based on the knowledge of project management lessons learnt by the author, as per the three stages including pre-work stage, project construction stage and project operation stage, it analyzes and categorizes the risks therein and comes up with the project Risk Identification List. Using the Delphi Method and the Expected Loss of Value Method, it thoroughly appraises and measures the risks from various stages in this BOT Project, then gives a precedent order of these risks. Finally, it works out the specific Risk Response measures. Furthermore, it compares the actual feedback from this BOT Project case which has been put into normal operation for several years, to the original Risk Response plan, it proves that this risk analysis method is basically workable and effective. Key words: BOT Project; Risk Identification; Risk Response
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