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论文编号：	6130
作者编号：	2120122642
上传时间：	2014/5/31 11:35:22
中文题目：	董事会决策中的信息瀑布
英文题目：	Information Cascade inside the Board’s Decisions
指导老师：	李建标
中文关键字：	董事会；决策；信息瀑布；实验
英文关键字：	The board of directors; Decision making; Information cascade; Experiment
中文摘要：	董事会是公司的最高决策机构，其决策质量关系到公司的兴衰成败，因而对于董事会决策的研究一直是公司治理的热点话题。以往的研究主要集中于实证领域，着重分析了董事会决策效率的影响因素。由于实证方法的局限性，研究者只能看到决策结果，而深入到决策的过程。此外，鉴于决策的主体是有限理性的个人，其行为机制也有待深入的研究。 本文基于信息瀑布理论，采用实验室实验的方法，分别从信息、信念以及行为三个层面展开分析。在行为层面，通过收益函数的不同将董事会成员划分为内部董事和独立董事，并观察不同的信息和信念对其投票行为的影响。在信念层面，通过添加董事的判断使其信念显性化，并引入了二次判断以考察其信念更新过程，在此基础上研究了决策过程中的信息瀑布。 对董事会成员投票行为的研究发现：单纯的信号差异并不显著影响内部董事的投票行为；独立董事在进行投票时能较好的反映其私人信息；内部董事和独立董事的投票行为都会受到他们对项目质量的信念影响；在使得信念显性化的实验设置中董事会的决策正确率并未显著提升。 对董事会成员判断行为的研究发现：决策者在进行判断时依赖自己的私人信息和前序参与者的决策；决策序位越靠后的参与者越有可能采取信息瀑布行为；当参与者的私人信息与本组第一个决策者的判断结果一致时，他更有可能遵循贝叶斯法则，但其正确率并不显著提升；参与者在二次判断中更有可能采取贝叶斯法则决策，但其正确率并未显著改善；贝叶斯法则的应用可以提高决策正确率；风险厌恶程度越高，参与者采取信息瀑布行为的可能性越小。 论文的创新之处在于：一、将董事会决策中的从众行为界定为信息瀑布；二、对董事会决策的过程以及成员信念生成过程中的信息瀑布展开了研究；三、引入了董事会成员异质性来解释实验中被试行为对理论预测的偏离。
英文摘要：	As the highest decision-making body of a company, the quality of the Board’s decision making is related with the company's success or failure. Thus the study of the board of directors has been a hot issue of corporate governance. Previous studies are mostly in the empirical field, focusing on the analysis of the factors influencing the decision efficiency of the board of directors. Due to the limitations of empirical methods, researchers can only see the decision results, and are unable to analyze the decision making process. In view of the decision of the agents are limited rational person, the behavior standards also need further researches. Based on the theory of information cascade, using a laboratory experiment, this paper launches the research from three aspects of information, belief and behavior. In the behavioral level, the members of the board of directors are divided into internal directors and independent directors through revenue functions, and we study the effect of information and belief to voting behavior. In the belief level, we add the judgment to make the belief dominant, and introduce the second judgment to investigate the progress of belief update. Based on these, we consider the information cascade of board’s decision. Study on the members of the board of directors voting behavior find: (1) Signal difference does not significantly affect the internal directors’ voting behavior. (2) The independent directors can better reflect the personal information in the vote. (3) Voting behavior of internal directors and independent directors are affected by their beliefs about the project’s quality. (4) The correct rate of decision-makings of the board doesn’t improve significantly in the board of directors experimental setting belief dominance in decision making. Study on the members of the board of directors judging behavior find: (1) People rely on their own private information and decisions of pre-order participants in judgment. (2) Decision hierarchy by the participants are more likely to take the information cascade behavior. (3) The judgment result when participants private information and the first decision makers agree, he is more likely to follow the Bayes rule, but its accuracy is not significantly improved. (4) Participants are more in the two judgment may be taken in the Bayes rule decision, but the correct rate did not significantly improve. (5) Application of Bias rule can improve the correct rate of decision. (6) The higher the degree of risk aversion, possibility participants take information falls behavior is small. The innovation of the paper lies in: Firstly, we define the conformity behavior of board’s decision as information cascade. Secondly, we make a research on the progress of board’s decision and the information cascade of belief update. Thirdly, we introduce the heterogeneity of members to explain subjects’ behavior, which deviate from the forecast of information cascade.
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