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论文编号：	6047
作者编号：	2120112346
上传时间：	2013/12/12 17:10:30
中文题目：	乳品行业并购中的目标企业价值评估
英文题目：	Evaluation of the target company in M&A in the dairy industry
指导老师：	张晓农
中文关键字：	合并收购，行业整合，价值评估，自由现金流折现法 ，市盈率法
英文关键字：	Mergers and acquisitions, Industry integration value assessment, Free cash flow discount method, Economic value added method
中文摘要：	现代社会的发展进程中，越来越多的企业选择并购其他企业作为实现发展和扩大规模的方式。兼并与收购（M&A）长期以来一直是企业界的显著特征。改革开放以来，尤其是近十年，随着经济的发展和社会的进步，我国企业尤其是上市企业的并购活动也逐渐增多，并购的规模逐步扩大，并购的形式也极大丰富。并购是一项急剧风险的活动，成功的并购能实现共赢的协同作用；失败的并购可能置企业于万劫不复的深渊。并购失败的原因多种多样，其中很重要的一条就是并购方对目标企业的企业价值评估不够深入透彻。如何运用正确的价值评估方法，在并购前合理确定收购价格，如何运用合理的管理方法，在并购后实现对新企业各种资源和企业文化的整合是决定企业并购成败的关键因素。在众多的并购类型中，以行业整合为目的的并购有其自身的特点，这类并购中，并购中协同效应的发挥、对目标公司估值的准确程度、国家的政策扶持都交易的结果产生影响，本文试图通过对于并购理论、估值理论、国家政策研究和对于估值模型的选择和改善来提高特定条件下对于目标企业估值的准确性。本文在研究并购理论与估值理论的同时辅以案例的分析研究，选取了蒙牛收购雅士利的收购案例作为研究对象来分析我国当前乳品行业整合中合并收购中面临的实际问题以及真实情况，试图借鉴本案例的研究成果，合理确定评估方法，在今后类似的合并收购中规避投资风险，减少投资失误。本文的第一部分作为绪论简单介绍了本文的研究背景和研究的现实意义，对于研究方法和创新点也做出了简单说明。第二部分对于国内外的并购理论和主流的估值理论做了介绍和回顾，总结了各种主要的估值模型的适用条件并给出了本文估值方法的选择原因。第三部分对于乳品行业现状与发展进行了分析，并对并购前的双方情况做了简要说明，着重分析了双方并购交易的各自动机。第四章是本文的重点章节，主要介绍了运用企业自由现金流法对雅士利集团进行了估值分析，分析主要基于雅士利集团过去五年的财务表现和对未来的预测，结合行业发展前景和国家政策以及公司所处的市场位置等对公司的市场价值进行了估计。第五部分作为比较，本文采用了市盈率法对雅士利集团价值进行了评估。并对于蒙牛收购雅士利的实际价格和本文估值的差异进行了比较分析。根据案例特点，本文对传统市盈率法进行了改善，引入了新的调整系数，使市盈率法可以作为一种简便方法应用于初步估值当中。第六部分是本文的结论部分，并结合我国乳品行业面临大型整合的背景，对于乳业行业整合过程中的合并收购提出了若干建议。
英文摘要：	With the development of modern society, More and more enterprises choose M & A as the way to achieve development and expand the scale of the enterprises. M & A has long been a characteristic of the corporate world. Gradually along with the completion of the economic system in our country in recent years, national enterprises especially listed enterprises merger and acquisition activity in the rapid development, the scale is more and more big, the form is also abundant. Among them, acquisition for the purpose of industry consolidation of state-owned enterprises is very representative. In the moment of Chinese economy stabilizes, “the merger and reorganization of key industries enterprise” is on the agenda again. M & A is a sharp risk activity, successful mergers and acquisitions lead to win-win co-operation and failing mergers and acquisitions lead to a cliff and sink beneath the waves. There are a variety of reasons for the failure of M & A, a very important one among them is that the merging party evaluation of target enterprise value is not thorough enough. In the large-scale mergers and acquisitions for industry integration, the state-owned enterprises, especially some large ,occupy a large number of national economic and social resources, do not attach importance to the economic law in M & A, this is the essence of some state-owned enterprises merger failed. Therefore, how to use the correct valuation methods in M & A, rational price of the acquisition, how to use the reasonable management, enterprise culture and resource integration after the merger is the key to decide the success or failure of M & A. This paper adopts the research method of combining theory and practice, the acquisition of the acquisition of Mengniu as a case study to analyze the problems of China's current industry consolidation and mergers and acquisitions in the real situation. Try to use the research results of this case, determine a reasonable evaluation method, a clear tendency under the guidance of the state dairy industry integration in mergers and acquisitions valuation, to avoid investment risks in mergers and acquisitions of similar in the future, reduce investment mistakes. The ABSTRACT IV first part is introduction, mainly describes the research background and practical significance, and research methods and possible innovations are explained. The second part for the current research situation both at home and abroad were summarized in this paper introduces the valuation for M & A. The third part analyses the present situation and development of the dairy industry, and the situation of both sides before the acquisition is explained briefly, analyzes their motives on both sides of M & a transactions. The third part summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of various assessment methods integration in M & A and the reason to choose the valuation method used in this paper. The fourth part uses the free cash flow discount method and economic value added method on Yashili group to do a valuation, the financial performance of the group for the past five years and forecasts for the future, with the development prospects of the industry and the national policy as well as the company's market position was used to estimate the market value of a company. Discounted free cash flow model, it focus on the free cash flow and the selection and determination of the. For the fifth part of the acquisition of the actual price difference Mengniu and the valuation are analyzed, and analyzed the causes of differences, for the valuation gap, this paper tries to seek the best capital structure within the company, and the structure is applied to the valuation and the practical problems should be solved during the acquisition of Mengniu Yashili and puts forward some suggestions.
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