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论文编号：	604
作者编号：	2120062044
上传时间：	2008/6/20 0:37:54
中文题目：	基于公司治理的财务预警模型研究
英文题目：	Research on Financial Early Wa
指导老师：	张晓农
中文关键字：	财务危机 公司治理 预警模型 因<
英文关键字：	Financial Crisis Corporate G
中文摘要：	随着中国加入WTO，市场经济体制改革的深入和资本市场的快速发展，我国经济领域中的复杂性、不确定性日益突出，我国公司发生危机的情形越来越多。作为财务管理和投资管理领域的一个重要研究方向，财务危机预警研究具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。无论对于投资者还是对于经营者，建立财务危机预警模型能够有效预测公司财务危机，及早防范财务危机的发生。 通过文献回顾可以发现，前人的财务危机预警模型中的解释变量多是财务指标，而忽略了非财务因素。比如人力资本、无形资产、公司治理等。因此本研究把公司治理这一非财务变量引入财务危机预警模型的构建，采用定性与定量相结合的方法对我国上市公司财务危机进行预警研究，提出了非财务指标-公司治理结构与财务危机发生概率相关的理论假设。通过实证来检验预警模型的拟合度和准确率是否因其加入而获得了提高。同时具体化为七个子假设，从公司治理的不同角度来验证公司治理与财务危机发生概率的关系；具体为股东大会、董事会、监事会、审计委员会和高管治理。 本文在采用因子分析、非参数检验和相关性检验对公司财务指标和治理因素进行统计处理的基础上,构造并实证检验了用于预测我国上市公司财务困境的两大类别六个模型,即仅是包含财务信息与融合财务信息和公司治理因素的两类Logistic回归预测模型。实证结果表明,通过了非参数检验和相关性检验筛选的公司治理变量不但与公司财务危机发生的概率之间呈现显著的相关关系,而且能够显著提高包含该变量的预测模型的拟合度和预测准确率。我们可以发现财务危机是公司治理失败的表现,而公司治理无效则是发生财务危机发生的深层原因。公司治理信息对于预测我国上市公司是否可能发生财务困境有重要作用价值。
英文摘要：	With China's accession to the WTO, Complexity and uncertainty have become increasingly prominent in the area of China's economy .More and more companies are down into financial crisis .As an important research area of financial management and investment management, financial crisis warning study is of great theoretical and practical significance. For investors or operators, financial crisis warning model can predict the company's financial crisis, as early as possible to prevent financial crises. From the literature review we konw, Many variables used in the early-warning model of the predecessors are the financial indicator, people neglect non-financial factors. For example, human capital, intangible assets, corporate governance . In this study, we will introduce non-financial variables—corporate governance into early warning model of financial crisis,adopt qualitative and quantitative methods to conduct financial crisis warning study of China's listed companies.In this paper we propose the hypothesis：corporate governance structure are related with financial crisis probability, due to the entrance of corporate governance into the warning models, Fitting and accuracy rate of models are increased.For example General meeting of shareholders, boards of directors, board of supervisors, the governance of executives In this paper we create two major categories of Logistic regression prediction modelwith different variables；one kind of model only use financial information as explained variables,another kind of model use financial information and corporate governance factors as explained variables . Results showed corporate governance variables is related with the probability of financial crisis with high significance ,and can significantly improve the fitting and accuracy of financial crisis warning model.We also can find that the financial crisis is the failure of corporate governance performance and corporate governance is the deep cause of the financial crisis. Corporate governance information can play an important role in predicting whether China's listed companies is in financial difficulties.
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