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论文编号：	6018
作者编号：	2120112341
上传时间：	2013/12/10 20:08:09
中文题目：	基于Ohlson模型的公司价值评估研究——以中国银行业上市公司为例
英文题目：	The Research of Business Valuation by Ohlson Model
指导老师：	郝臣
中文关键字：	Ohlson模型 公司价值评估 银行业上市公司 公司治理
英文关键字：	Ohlson Model Business Valuation Listed Companies in Banking Management of Company
中文摘要：	摘要 公司价值评估历来是公司财务和资本市场共同关注的热点问题，近二十年来，随着我国证券市场的不断发展和壮大，公司价值评估越来越受到投资者的高度重视，成为投资决策的重要依据。同时，如何利用会计信息对上市公司价值进行评估，是长期以来专家学者、会计界的研究课题。 本文主要研究如何用Ohlson模型对中国银行业上市公司进行股权价值评估，以及检验Ohlson模型在中国资本市场的适用性，并找出影响估值的各项因素。本文就选题背景及意义、研究的主要内容与框架、研究思路和技术路线及本文的研究创新点、理论基础等进行了详细的论述，并回顾了国内外文献关于Ohlson模型的主要观点，论文还介绍Ohlson模型的发展历程、基本形式和三个假设。论文还与其他两种估值模型：现金股利折现模型和股权自由现金流折现模型进行了比较，并由此选用Ohlson模型进行估值。 本文选取14家中国上市银行2007年至2012年的个股数据作为样本数据，利用线性回归分析求出线性假设模型的系数和截距项，检验线性假设成立，并用Ohlson模型对中国银行业上市公司进行估值。从检验结果看，通过对理论值与市场价格的配对检验，两者呈正相关，证明了Ohlson模型在中国资本市场的适用性。同时论文还对影响股票价格的会计因素和非会计因素进行了分析，认为会计因素如公司盈利能力、运营能力是影响公司价值的重要因素，研究结果还发现非会计因素中的公司治理水平也是影响公司价值不容忽视的重要因素。论文选取上市银行的公司治理指标与理论估值进行检验，发现董事长与总经理两级设置情况、第一大股东持股比例相对其他指标对估值有一定程度的影响。因此，非会计因素对公司价值的影响应引起高度重视。本文还对Ohlson模型的应用前景进行了展望。
英文摘要：	Abstract The Business Valuation, as the hot spot of issue, is always focused commonly by company’s finance and capital market. With the developing of China’s stock-market, investors have been paid more attention on the business valuation which could be seen as the most important basis of financial investment and decision in recent two decades. Meanwhile, it’s the long-term research project in accounting cycle and related experts that how to use accounting information to business valuation. The paper mainly research that how to evaluate the equity right of listed company of China by using Ohlson model, and testing the applicability in China’s capital market as well as the factors of valuation.Author has fully discussed the theme from many parts, main contents and paper’s frame, researching thought and technology, difficult and theoretical principles and so on. It also introduces the development course, basic form and three conjectures of Ohlson model while giving a brief overview of the main ideas of documents at home and abroad. Comparing of other two value-assessing models: Dividend Discount Model and Free Cash Flow to Equity, and this paper chooses Ohlson model to make the value-assessing. The paper has chosen the individual stock figures of 14 listed banks from 2007 to 2012 as the samples, and evaluate these banks’ total equity value by Ohlson model. According to the direct correlation between the theoretical values and real market price, it is tested that Ohlson model is applicable in China’s capital market. The paper also analyses the accounting and non-accounting factors which impact on the stock price. It evidences that the accounting factors, such as the profitability and operational capability of corporation are very important to the company’s value. While, the non-accounting factors: Chairman and general manager of the two level settings and first shareholder ' s ownership proportion are affect the valuation. management level of company is too serious to ignore as well. Finally, the application prospect of Ohlson model is discussed in this paper.
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