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论文编号：	5929
作者编号：	2120112345
上传时间：	2013/12/6 20:02:47
中文题目：	基于行业政策环境变化的铁路企业价值评估研究 ——以大秦铁路为例
英文题目：	The Research of the Valuation of the Railway Business on the Basis of the Changes of the Policy Environment Taking Daqin Railway Corporation As An Example
指导老师：	齐岳
中文关键字：	企业价值，价值评估，实体现金流量折现，市净率估值，大秦铁路
英文关键字：	value, business valuation, discounted entity cash flow, price-to-book valuation, Daqin Railway
中文摘要：	随着资产评估行业的发展，企业价值评估已日益成为学术界与实践中关注的热点问题。通过企业价值评估，企业可以深刻认知价值来源，采取合理的措施提升自身价值，实现企业价值最大化的管理目标，投资者可以加深对企业的了解，判断股价走势，做出正确的投资决策。本文选取铁路相关行业的企业进行研究。铁路建设可以积极推动国民经济的快速发展，目前我国路网规模和质量大幅提升，铁路运输能力也得到显著扩充。为促进铁路发展，我国出台了《国家铁路“十二五”发展规划》，同时，为提高铁路运营效率，铁道部在2013年被撤销，新成立的中国铁路总公司承担了原铁道部的企业职责，铁路行业的政策环境发生巨大变化。 本文在《国家铁路“十二五”发展规划》与铁道部重组的背景下，分析政策环境变化对铁路相关行业上市公司的影响，并以大秦铁路为例进行案例分析，利用现金流折现法的实体现金流量折现模型及相对价值法的市净率估值模型计算公司的价值。通过评估发现实体现金流量折现模型得出的估值结果比较合理，但是评估过程复杂，市净率估值模型得出的估值结果准确性较差，但是方法简单。在综合分析的基础上本文提出了投资者评估方法选择以及企业提升价值的建议。 通过分析可知，现金流折现法与相对价值法在实践中应用广泛，但不同的方法模型各有优缺点，需要根据评估对象的特征审慎选择评估模型。通过对大秦铁路的估值分析，详细演示了两种模型在实践中的应用，对于模型中参数的确定，经营性项目与金融性项目的判断，管理用财务报表的调整，可比公司的选择，以及模型的修正，应合理控制分析，以提高估值的准确性。本文还对企业及投资者提出了相应的建议，进一步表明企业价值评估对企业及投资者具有重要的作用。
英文摘要：	With the development of the assets evaluation industry, the business valuation has increasingly become the hot topic in academia and practice. Through the business valuation, the enterprise can perceive the source of value deeply, take reasonable measures to improve its value, and achieve the goal of the enterprise value maximization. Besides，the investors can deepen the understanding of the enterprise to determine share price, and make the right investment decisions. This article selects the railway industry enterprises to carry out research. Railway construction can promote the rapid development of national economy. Currently, the scale and quality of the railway network in China have been improved greatly, and railway transportation capacity has been expanded significantly. To promote the development of the railway, the government of China introduced the national railway’s "twelfth five-year plan", and Ministry of Railways was revoked in 2013 in order to improve the efficiency of railway’s operation. The newly established China Railway Corporation takes the enterprise’s functions of the former Ministry of Railways, and the policy environment of railway industry has changed dramatically. This article analyzes the influence of the policy environment’s changes to the listed companies of railway industry, and carries on the case analysis of Daqin Railway Corporation by using the discounted entity cash flow model and the price-to-book valuation model to calculate the value of this company under the background of the "twelfth five-year plan” of the national railway and the reorganization of the Ministry of Railways. It is concluded that the results of using the discounted entity cash flow model is reasonable though the evaluation process is complex, and the results of using the price-to-book valuation model is not accurate though the method is simple. On the basis of comprehensive analysis in this paper, the suggestions about the investors’ choice of the valuation methods and the ways of improving enterprises value are given. Through the analysis we concludes that the discount cash flow method and relative value method are widely used in practice, and we need to choose the reasonable models according to the characteristics of the evaluation object because each model has advantages and disadvantages . Through the analysis of the valuation of Daqin Railway Corporation, the application of two kinds of model in practice is detailed demonstrated. In order to improve the accuracy of the valuations, we need to analyze the key points reasonably，such as the determination of model parameters, the judgment of operational projects and financial projects, the adjustment of the financial statements of management, the choice of comparable companies, as well as the correction of the model. This article also puts forward the corresponding suggestions for enterprises and investors, and it is further proved that the business valuation plays an important role for enterprises and investors.
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