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论文编号：	5922
作者编号：	2120112342
上传时间：	2013/12/6 17:04:13
中文题目：	基于EVA方法的我国上市银行的投资价值研究
英文题目：	The Research on Investment Value of China''s Listed Banks Based on EVA
指导老师：	覃家琦
中文关键字：	上市银行,EVA,EVA市盈率,EVA托宾Q
英文关键字：	Listed Banks, EVA, EVA -PE, EVA- tobin Q
中文摘要：	摘 要银行业在现代金融中起着重要的支柱作用。随着我国银行业改革的不断深入，越来越多的外资银行参与到国内市场的竞争之中，同时也通过引入大量境外投资者实现服份制改造。银行体系间的并购重组、外资及民间资本的参股、国有银行改制上市等现象层出不穷。为了提高银行的竞争力、确保银行经济活动的有序进行，就必须对银行进行有效的价值评估。然而在现阶段，除了银行上市、并购、转股时进行价值评估之外，国内还未形成一个广泛的银行价值评估理念。而在银行的价值评估过程当中，由于缺乏充分的理论研究和实践基础，所以很少有合适的评估方法对商业银行进行有效的价值评估。因此，针对我国商业银行的特殊性，选择科学合理的价值评估方法对我国银行业进行有效的价值评估，不仅能够增强我国银行业的价值创造能力，而且能够全面提升其在国际市场上的核心竞争力。本文通过运用理论与实践分析、定性与定量分析相结合的方法对我国商业银行的投资价值进行了探讨。首先，本文从我国商业银行所处的国内外背景出发，指出研究我国商业银行投资价值的必要性。其次，通过对国内外企业价值评估相关文献的梳理，本文发现由于银行业的特殊性及我国商业银行的现状，一般的企业价值评估方法并不适应于我国商业银行的价值评估。EVA理论是一种新型的价值评估指标，它能够比较准确地反映公司一定时期内为股东创造的价值。EVA的管理理念能够使企业以企业价值最大化为导向，引导企业健康持续的发展。EVA理论成为我国学者在研究企业价值时主要使用的价值评估工具之一，对银行业的价值评估也开始引入该理论。本文进一步将上市银行的基本财务状况、EVA估值法对我国上市银行的价值评估、EVA市盈率估值模型与EVA托宾Q模型在我国上市银行中的应用这三个方面作为我国上市银行的投资价值可行性研究的切入点。首先，本文选取了我国上市的16家上市银行作为样本，通过对我国上市银行的盈利能力、流动性、偿债能力及抵御风险的能力等基本财务指标的分析，得出初步的结论。由于财务指标只是对企业历史财务状况的分析，不具有前瞻性，因此，本文将采用绝对和相对估值法对企业价值进行评估。其次，本文采用绝对估值方法——EVA价值评估方法，对我国上市银行进行了有效的价值评估研究，本文得到了16家上市银行2012年的企业价值，企业价值的前四名分别是工商银行、农业银行、建设银行和中国银行，其中工商银行的企业价值最高。宁波银行和南京银行的企业价值相对较低。最后，本文通过创新，将EVA和市盈率相结合，取长补短，运用EVA市盈率这一相对评价指标对我国商业银行的发展水平进行评价。从分析中得出，中国银行、农业银行、工商银行和建设银行的EVA市盈率相对较低，而南京银行、宁波银行的EVA市盈率相对较高，说明投资者投资四大国有银行所需的资本成本较小。同时，本文还将托宾Q与EVA相结合，运用EVA托宾Q模型对我国上市银行作了综合性评价。本文通过对上市银行的理论和实证方面的研究发现，商业银行只有注重稳健的经营管理，将目光放长远、注重自身的价值创造能力，才能为企业、投资者、社会营造一个良好的投资环境，资源才能得到优化配置，才有利于经营绩效及社会经济效率的提高。
英文摘要：	Abstract Banking is one of the pillars of modern finance. With the development of China's banking industry, foreign banks have entered China's financial markets and enjoy the same treatment with domestic banks. Our country has achieved the joint-stock reform through the introduction of domestic and foreign investors, deepen the Bank industry reform of institution and mechanisms. Many economic activities increased, such as the restructuring and mergers and acquisitions of the banks, the listing of state-owned banks, asset sale sand etc.. The effectiveness of these economic activities are all built on the basis of valid bank valuation. However, there is not a broad concept of bank valuation. When banks are confronted with mergers and acquisitions, listing and so on, they need the corresponding valuation. In the bank's valuation process, the lack of adequate theoretical and practical basis, so there is little appropriate assessment methods of commercial banks effectively valuation. Therefore, the choice for the assessment of commercial banks commercial banks in China for effective valuation boosts China's commercial bank's core competitiveness and ability to create value and enhance the international market competitiveness of China's commercial banks. This paper makes a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis method, and analyzes the investment value of China's commercial banks. Firstly, on the base of the foreign and domestic study of commercial banks’ investment value, the paper suggests the necessity to examine the investment value of China's commercial banks. Secondly, through combing the relevant literatures about the domestic and international business valuation, we find that due to the particularity of the banking sector and the status of China's commercial banks, the general business valuation methods are not adapted to assess the value of China's commercial banks. EVA is a new theory of the value of evaluation index, it can more accurately reflect the company to create value for shareholders in a period. EVA management concept guide enterprises to healthy and sustainable development for maximizing enterprise value-oriented. EVA theory becomes the main tool of studying enterprise’s valuation, which is used to value the banks. This article will study the investment value of listed banks in China from three respects. They are respectively the basic financial situation of listed banks, EVA valuation method of listed Banks in our country, EVA-PE and EVA tobin Q valuation models in the application of China's listed Banks. First, we selected the 16 Chinese listed banks as the sample. Through we analyse the profitability, liquidity, solvency and ability to withstand risks and other basic financial indicators of China's listed Banks, we get the preliminary conclusion. The financial indicators is the analysis of the history of the enterprise's financial condition, it is not proactive. Therefore, this article will use the absolute valuation method and the relative valuation method to evaluate the enterprise value. Secondly, we use absolute valuation method - EVA valuation methods to assess China's listed banks. we have reached the valuation of 16 listed banks in 2012. The top four companies of enterprise value is ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank and The Bank of China , in which has the highest value is Industrial and Commercial Bank Company. Ningbo Bank and Nanjing bank's enterprise value is relatively low. Finally, we combined with the EVA and PE each other, then we use EVA PE evaluation to assess the value of listed Banks in China and evaluate the level of development about them. We concluded that, EVA-PE is relatively low about The Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China. EVA-PE is the highest about Ningbo Bank and Nanjing Bank. Which indicate that investors required lower cost of capital to invest four state-owned banks, on the contrary, required higher cost of capital to invest Ningbo Bank and Nanjing Bank. At the same time, this article also will tobin Q combined with EVA, EVA tobin Q model is used to made a comprehensive evaluation of listed Banks in our country. Based on the analysis about the valuation of listed banks, we found that commercial banks only focus on robust business management, and ability to create value of themselves, they can create a good investment environment for companies, investors and society. Then we can optimize the allocation and enhance the business performance and socio-economic efficiency.
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